Naga issue dominates Manipur Assembly poll

Manipur goes to polls next month. Elections to the 60 seats in the State Assembly will be held in two phases – March 4 and 8. This Assembly election is going to be entirely different from all other elections in the past. It is the Naga issue that is dominating the election scene. The Nagas mounted an economic blockade of the State on the 1st of November last year, to protest against the creation of seven new districts by the Congress-run Manipur Government. They think the establishment of the new districts is intended to divide the Nagas living in Manipur and weaken them politically.

It is a unique situation in that the Meiteis or Manipuris living in the plains and all the hill tribes except the Nagas living in the hills are united against the Nagas. The BJP which initially hoped to wrest power from the Congress now finds itself caught between two stools. And the Congress believes that the situation has suddenly started to turn in its favour.

The Modi Government signed a 'Naga Framework Agreement' with the NSCN(IM), one of the three factions of Naga insurgents, in August 2015. Despite repeated and strident demands of the people of Manipur, both in plains and hills, the Centre has refused to reveal its contents. The Manipuris suspect that to buy peace with the Naga insurgents, the Centre must have conceded one of the core demands of the Naga people, namely, to integrate all Naga-inhabited areas of Arunachal, Assam and Manipur in a single State to be called Nagalim. Manipuris are determined not to cede a square inch of their land to anyone.

Having signed the Framework Agreement, the BJP finds it impossible to give up its support to the Nagas, the more so because it is running a coalition government in Nagaland with some Naga political parties. Equally, the BJP finds it difficult to support the Naga economic blockade. It is trying to wriggle out of the quandary by blaming the Congress for allegedly supporting the NSCN(IM) in the past.

But this is not cutting ice because people are not concerned with the past but the present. Secondly, the BJP is failing to take a firm and definite stand against the Nagas. Rajnath Singh blames Chief Minister Ibobi Singh for failing to break the deadlock with the Nagas. Ibobi turns back and says, because of your tacit support to the NSCN(IM) that the Manipuri Nagas represented by the United Naga Council (UNC) and the Naga People's Front (NPF) have taken such an intransigent stand. The Manipuris believe the UNC and NPF are really the two 'faces' of the NSCN(IM).

The BJP's ambivalence is costing it dearly. A few days ago, Indira Oinam, a BJP spokesperson and the party's candidate for the Thoubal constituency, resigned from her party and joined the Congress which lost no time in appointing her as a Congress spokesperson! Earlier, another prominent BJP activist, Khumkuchem Joykishen, left the party to join the Congress. They were all unhappy with their party for not spelling out its stand on the Naga issue. It is a different kind of polarisation the BJP is not familiar with and has no clue to resolving it.

Recently, Irom Sharmila, who has founded her own political party, People's Resurgence and Justice Party (acronym PRAJA), to fight for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act from Manipur, made the sensational claim that the BJP had offered her Rs. 36 crores to contest as a BJP candidate. BJP's Ram Madhav took no time in rubbishing her claim. "We don't need Rs. 36 crore for our entire election campaign in Manipur", he said.

Ticket distribution has also caused much heart-burn in the BJP. Many aspirants have been denied ticket and are fuming. What role they will play in the elections is anybody's guess. Manipur has a sizeable Muslim population. In about a dozen and a half constituencies they play a decisive role. The Muslims are unhappy because the BJP has practically ignored their claims. Only one Muslim, Anwar Hussain, has been given BJP ticket.

But the issue that will determine the outcome of the Manipur Assembly polls is the Naga problem. The Congress is up in arms against the Nagas. In the middle of this month, the Congress Legislature Party of Manipur shot off a letter to the Prime Minister demanding that the United Naga Council (UNC) which is spearheading the economic blockade, be banned.

The Congress knows its demand will not be accepted and that is what it wants. Because if the Centre refuses to outlaw the UNC, it will bring fresh grist to the Congress propaganda mill against the BJP and project it as a party which is secretly trying to dismember Manipur by conceding Naga territorial claims. If you want to deny the charge, please disclose the contents of the Framework Agreement! That is the position of the Congress, and that is the position of the non-Naga people of Manipur also. It is, indeed, a Catch 22 situation for the BJP.