When 80 went a-missing

Today, let's sing an ode to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) for having the nuts and guts to stand up to an arrogant and shameless establishment – one that has been giving us false numbers and fudged figures, without any latency and potency. September 17, 2020 saw India wake up to a staggering figure of 50-lakh-plus positive COVID-19 cases. While we scratched our heads and reached for our underpants, hand-wash and sanitizers, we also learnt something else. That those already scary numbers are a lie. According to ICMR, the actual number of cases is over 80-130 times the quoted figure.

Come again; 80 times at least? That imputes that over 40-crore-plus Indians are possibly exposed to the novel Coronavirus 2019. Mind-numbing, sure, but numbers don't lie. After all, the COVID-19 strain wreaking havoc in India is comparatively mild and leads to mostly asymptomatic cases. While that may provide some solace in these trying times, it also frightens the living daylights out of many of us. And therein from the setting sun trots in the biggest irony and creepy truth that parts of India are witnessing – a section of Indians have decided that the pandemic is over and are back to living their life. Balle balle.

Shocking revelation

Last week, on the basis of a sero-prevalence survey conducted in May-June, ICMR estimated that 40 per cent of the Indian population has already been exposed to the COVID-19 virus. The scarier part still? For every confirmed case detected, there are 80-130 missed cases of Coronavirus infection. These are the results of India's first nationwide study of Coronavirus infections, which dates back to May-June this year, when the pandemic was just about beginning to gather steam and show its true colors. As for the missing cases, they include the entire gamut of cases – asymptomatic, mild, severe cases and fatalities. As a contrast, get a load of this; the United States is estimated to have 10 missed cases for every confirmed one.

According to the ICMR, which is at the epicenter of monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic in India and comes out with advisories and notices, we missed the 'missed cases' because we tested only those who had symptoms of severe and acute respiratory infection. Over and above that, there is a large variation in the testing methodology used by India's different states. Initially, tests were carried out only on those who showed symptoms and their contacts, but community testing – the most important tool to stem the spread – was not carried out. If it had, it would have provided a more accurate picture of the spread of the virus. A morbid addendum is that missed cases also mean that India could have missed a lot of COVID-19 deaths. ICMR's findings show that mortality data is incomplete as many virus-related deaths were not attributed to Covid-19. And as those went unreported, their families and close contacts were also perhaps infected, but went undetected and unchecked. And then their families and contacts, and so on and so forth. The chain proceeded, unchecked.

'Sab theek hai' syndrome

In the epic Sholay in the 1970s, Daku Gabbar Singh said: 'Haan, ab (sab) theek hai'. Four decades later, Aamir Khan brought to life 'All is well' in the movie 3 Idiots. These two cameos were meant only for the silver screen, to bring to life their characters. Today though, some real-life characters – our nation's leaders and opinion-makers – are repeatedly appearing on live television and video-messages, playing God and waxing eloquent. They claim that though numbers are galloping away to dizzying heights, there is no reason to panic or be alarmed. Their advice – no cause for worry. Or let's at least make believe that this is true, and let's keep smiling and living life king-size. This is a peculiar problem confronting the country.

As we now stand at an unenviable #2 position in the world in terms of COVID-19 cases, ahead of Brazil, we are repeatedly reminded by our masters that the number of deaths (84,372 reported till Friday) is quite low for a country with over 135 crore souls. Further, there are repeated reminders that while infections may be on the rise, the mortality rate is only 1.7 per cent, low compared to countries like Italy, the United States and the United Kingdom. In a bizarre turn of events, we are even being comforted, mentally caressed and cajoled about COVID-19 statistics in India, as over 40 lakh of the 50-lakh-plus infected have recovered.

The bottomline? Well, you know it. All is well. Sab theek hai. The situation is under control. Using statistics craftily tailored to give credence to these statements, we are bombarded regularly with feel-good messages, thereby being slowly lulled and hypnotized into a state of complacency, even celebration.

Call to celebration

Why 'celebration'? Well, I live in Delhi, and I can tell you that my city is 'back'. Quirkily enough, most parts of India's Capital are rejoicing. People are back on the streets. Evening rituals in bars and cars are back to what they were. The demand for petrol is back to its old self; hence people are blissfully driving around. Diesel sales are catching on. Liquor sales are soaring. Seekh kababs, mutton tikkas and butter chicken in street cafes are the flavor of the day (evenings) again. And in a sinister turn of events, the donning of masks and repeated sanitization of hands is petering away, nearly washed out (pun intended). For the millions still cowering at home, this is dispiriting, alarming, astounding, even frightening. But it is happening.

The Gods have spoken, and all is well. We are perhaps taking a leaf from the United States, where President Donald Trump recently hosted a mask-free, socially un-distanced Republican convention on the White House lawns. The Associated Press reported that Trump delivered his speech accepting the GOP presidential nomination at an event that betrayed a dismaying pattern of flouting Coronavirus safety guidelines. Sure, public health officials claim outdoors is safer than indoors, but the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP) puts the risk of Covid-19 spreading at its highest at large outdoor events and in-person gatherings where people do not stay 6 feet apart and attendees come from out of town. At this Trump event, chairs were placed inches apart instead of the recommended 6 feet, leaving little scope for social distancing.

Taboo to be positive

For a bit, let's cast the celebrating and rejoicing few aside. After all, we are a country of 135 crore, most of us scared, many petrified. Over the last six months, crores have lost their jobs, livelihoods. Suicides are increasing. Defaults on loans are rising. Instances of domestic violence have trebled. In these tremulous times, being found COVID-19-positive is considered by most a curse.

Once tested positive, people feel condemned, instantly rendered unemployed or unemployable. All are afraid of being shunted to a hospital or an isolation ward set up by the Government. Few have been left with the ability to opt for treatment in private hospitals, which are as heartless and mercenary as they are expensive, opportunistic and exploitative.

Today, more than ever in our 70-plus-years of independence, India needs to be a nation united. It needs to give heart, solace and exhibit compassion to her people. An opportunity went a-begging in January and then again in February this year. We could have part-sealed our international borders and screened every incoming passenger, Indian or international. Yes, we would have been universally booed, berated and shunned for a bit. But over time, we would have been recognized and felicitated globally for sparing crores of people from the COVID-19 misery and protecting our economy.

That door is not yet closed. An opportunity still exists. That of salvaging a rather dire equation in our favor. We can spell out the truth as it really stands – share the true numbers regularly. Put people on their toes, forcing them to revert to extreme measures and caution. For all its bite, COVID-19 has taught us one thing. That this pandemic does not need policing in our typically-lawless masses. Made aware of the true danger and fallout, people will take action themselves, if only to protect their own. Let's not take away from India and Indians the right to know the truth.

The writer is a communications consultant and a clinical analyst. narayanrajeev2006@gmail.com