Caution thrown to the winds

I made a mistake this past week, and I apologize to the few who witnessed or heard of the (f)act. I entered a favorite hangout joint to meet friends after a grace-period of nearly 11 months. To be fair to me, I was coerced, even emotionally blackmailed. "Why don't you come to the club anymore," I was grilled and chastised. "All of us others meet often. Only and only you never come. It is very clean and safe, distanced. You have to join us."

I did. I acquiesced and landed up at the jaunt. And what an indigent and hapless juggernaut I found in my stead. Even in my now dimming vision, the scenario was incredible, scary and unearthly, especially given today's times—raucous, teeming and cackling crowds, people hugging one-another, peppering each visible known person with unbridled and lascivious love and exhibiting unbound affection and undue vigor. I saw a touchy-feely fondness in the new world order, the new normal. The message was loud. The message was clear. We are back, the scenario screamed.

But are we? No. Me, I and myself, all three of me, ran away in my car back to my quarantined home in just 10 minutes, repeatedly sanitizing my kissed cheeks and held arms, pledging never to return till the seas turned calmer and the waves are less choppy. Because COVID-19 is not over, even though some of us prefer to believe otherwise… Yes, people are rejoicing. I bless them. But it is a foolish misconception to expect a once-in-a-century pandemic to spare us so easily, especially when the statistics worldwide speak a different language. The scenes I witnessed worry me tremendously, for the evil grin of the virus may yet bite us if we don't watch our backs and remind us of its fury. Butter chicken, mutton tikka, gobhi pakodas and manchow and a few dark rums be damned, this is one for the history books.

Losing patience

We are human, indeed. And we are seemingly running out of patience. Plain and simple, we have given up. I see no other reason for a congregation of men hugging each other in a city just a couple of months after never-before pan(dem)ic, where even standing close to the other was hush-hush. Shaking hands was a strict no-no. And body contact, except with the spouse (and that too after a divine, eclectic prayer), was an anathema. Today, people in my very own club, especially men—argh and ouch—are lining up to hug me. Even cuddle me.

I love you all, my friends and male lovers, but let's please save the mollycoddling for later. Here's why… In India and around the world, over the last few months, the numbers of newly infected people are vacillating—yumming and yawing. They are peaking. They are plummeting. No one knows why. And it is when no one knows why that we need to take a step back and take a deep breath; for that is the time to be careful. We may be at the cusp of beating back a demon, but the demon is spouting fire still.

Look at Mumbai, our financial capital. We resumed local train services in Mumbai, the country's financial lifeline, a fortnight back. New cases in the never-say-sleep city are spiking. The recent rise in Coronavirus cases in Mumbai has left many wondering if local trains are responsible. Medical experts feel the 15 days since the resumption of local train services have been critical to the rising cases, a possible link.

Premature celebration?

We are perhaps predicting the death of the dreaded virus rather prematurely. Some experts feel so and attribute the trend to an arrogant lack of cautiousness. In an interview with IndiaSpend, Rajeev Sadanandan, Kerala's former health secretary and now the state's adviser on Covid-19, said cases have been rising significantly since December 2020. "It stems from people behaving as if the situation is over. In the rest of the country, no one is wearing masks or practicing social distancing. Looking at this, people in Kerala started behaving this way too. But since Kerala initially controlled the epidemic very well, it has a large pool of vulnerable people."

Kerala is a victim of its own success, Sadanandan said. Is the rest of the country following suit, perhaps in the wake of a savior vaccine that few seem to have the gumption to take the first shot of?

Maybe. Maybe not. At the 148th session of the World Health Organization (WHO) Executive Board last week, Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said the world was on the verge of defeating the Coronavirus pandemic with its pre-emptive and collaborative strategies. "I thank member nations that despite the wide disparity in their epidemiological trends, we're on the verge of defeating the pandemic by adopting proactive strategies," he said.

Around the world

In post-Donald Trump United States, there are now increasing instances of new Coronavirus cases. While infections are down in earlier hot-spots, places like Iowa and South Dakota are seeing a new phase in the virus spread, even as progress in one state is set aside by a rising spike in others, leading to scant overall betterment.

Changing lifestyles (back to the old normal) is also playing a part in spreading the virus fire, as are the re-opening of educational institutions and sporting events. This a classic sign of fatigue, frustration and exhaustion that Americans and others worldwide have faced after months of masks, hand sanitizers, social isolation, busted businesses, lost jobs and shut-down arcades, boardwalks, beaches and malls. People in the US and elsewhere are now letting their guard down, letting the virus spread as we all nations attempt to rebuild and re-open our flagellating and blinkered economies.

In end-December, after nearly 300 days without a single locally-transmitted COVID-19 infection, Taiwan reported its first case, ending the world's longest virus-free streak. On the same day, Thailand reported 427 new cases, a worrying jump for a nation that had gone nearly a century of days without a single new COVID-19 case.

And on to the United Kingdom, which has seen a fresh spike in the new COVID-20 virus variant strain, one that forced Prime Minister Boris Johnson to cancel his presence as the Chief Guest at the Republic Day parade in New Delhi. Sure, he did express his intent to visit India later in the year to strengthen the friendship between the two countries—sure, the world has changed.

And clearly, all is not well on the Covid-19 front. But my club believes otherwise.

Worrying trends

The vestiges of the COVID-19 curse remain—true and strong, regardless of where it spawned from. Our celebrations of it having gone away are premature, quite immature. I heard blaring music last night and headed to my rather large terrace. Some homes way, I saw people dancing the night away. Screaming. Cheering. Shouting. Life is back. I love music and happy people. But life is not back. It is oft black. Let's look at some numbers shared about Bihar by a friend.

Here goes.

The Indian Express reported that over three days last month, three Primary Health Centers (PHCs) Bihar's Jamui district tested 588 residents for Covid—all negative. The name, age and cell number of each person tested was put down in a chart and sent to Patna where it was aggregated with data from other districts to plot the state's downward Covid-19 curve.

Reporters visited six PHCs in Jamui, Sheikhpura and Patna, and accessed their testing records for January 16, 18 and 25. In Jamui, it tracked down each of the 588 entries at three PHCs for those days, and spoke to several staffers to find that basic data protocol was bypassed in a scramble to meet the daily target—fudged mobile numbers, fake names and dodgy entries. And, in many cases, siphoned off profits from unused testing kits… A new business model.

End of day

Let's not miss the wood for the trees. Sure, we may be headed for a revival. We may become a strong economy again. Our Corporates may revive. It is this repeated usage of 'may' is what rankles me. For Coronavirus 2019 is not a 'may'. It was and continues to be very, very real. And we are playing

with an unseen and unknown fire—something that locked us down for nearly a year, changed our way of living, loving and working, and still expresses no intent of going away.

By not acknowledging this Damocles' sword that still hangs over our head, we are making a terrible mistake; one that we may pay a hefty price for.

The writer is a communications consultant and a clinical analyst. narayanrajeev2006@gmail.com

Views expressed are personal