Resetting the balance

The year that has gone past was a telling one for humanity. Our blind race for power and prosperity has ultimately led human civilisation to alter the natural climate so badly that it became one of the greatest threats for mankind. Climate change is adversely affecting every aspect of life from livelihood to health, society and security etc. The bitter irony is that the ones who bear the brunt of the responsibility, whether a country, society or an individual possess the wealth, technology, and infrastructure to cope with the negative effects, while those who contribute the least will have to suffer the worst.

But, climate change, in the end, knows no geographical boundary, therefore, it's just a matter of time before humanity as a whole is brought face to face with nature's fury in a manner never before seen in history if corrective actions are delayed.

The pandemic has made us realise what the disturbance of natural balance can result in and how capable we are of controlling it. Note the uncanny similarities between the pandemic and climate change — both are the results of human alteration to the natural balance while also being preventable. It must be noted that there is no direct evidence that climate change influences/ or has influenced the pandemic. Researchers have, however, found that changing climatic conditions can strongly affect waterborne, vector-borne and air-pollution influenced diseases and deaths by intensifying exposure period, transmission period and geographical areas of impact. A report by the WHO warns of an additional 250,000 deaths and USD 2-4 billion direct cost of health damage per year between 2030 and 2050; the majorly due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress.

Beyond imagining

Climate change is the defining issue of our time and we are at a defining moment. The impacts of climate change are global in scope and at an unprecedented scale. The impacts like shrinking glaciers, rising sea levels, altered natural weather patterns and frequent extreme weather events like intense heat waves, flood, drought, tornado, hurricanes and wildfires are undeniably visible in the present times. The essentials of life such as clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, secure shelter, are under severe threat. Variable rainfall patterns are resulting in a water shortage for essential needs — drinking, agriculture, and aquaculture. In extreme cases, water scarcity can lead to drought and famine. Rising temperatures and variable precipitation can lead to deterioration in food security, further aggravating the existing malnutrition situation which already causes 3.1 million deaths every year. Globally, weather-related natural disasters kill around 60,000 people, mainly in developing countries. The number has increased every year, nearly tripling since the 1960s. Between 1980 and 2011, floods affected more than 5.5 million people globally and caused direct economic losses of more than €90 billion. The loss of natural ecosystems, biodiversity, carbon sink in the sea, submerging land-masses and air pollution is bound to affect billions increasingly. Half of the world's plant and animal species are at risk of extinction by 2100 as habitats are destroyed and ecosystems unravel.

Approaching disaster

Excessive release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by mankind acts like a glass layer in the atmosphere which traps more of sun's heat and results in global warming. Natural forces such as sun's intensity and volcanic eruptions also contribute to it, but their influence is too small and slow to justify rapidly rising global average temperature since the industrial revolution. The GHGs, mainly CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases are being released in ever-increasing quantities by human activities. CO2 largely comes from fossil fuel burning, methane from increasing livestock farming, nitrous oxides from excessive fertiliser use, fluorinated gases from cooling and air conditioning systems. The CO2 which is responsible for over 60 per cent of man-made global warming today as compared to 17 per cent by methane and six per cent by nitrous oxide, has increased by over 40 per cent since the beginning of industrialisation. Other GHGs are however emitted in smaller quantities, but may have much higher global warming potential — methane has 25 times greater potential and nitrous oxide is 298 times more potent than CO2.

In the last 100 years, Earth has been warmed by nearly 6oC that led to a reduction of 10 per cent of snow cover and 40 per cent of Arctic sea ice. Global sea levels have risen by about eight inches since reliable record-keeping began in 1880 and is projected to rise up to eight feet by 2100. The Arctic is heating twice as fast as any other place on the planet, and as soon as it melts, our oceans may further rise, threatening coastal ecosystems, low-lying areas, island nations and the world's largest cities, including New York, Miami, Mumbai, and Sydney.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts 1.4 - 5.8°C of average global temperature increase over the next century, up to a 41 per cent increase over modern levels. Let's remind ourselves that a temperature increase of nearly half of this was sufficent for bringing about the last ice age.

Bigger is not better

Nearly 50 billion tonnes equivalent of CO2 is added into the atmosphere every year with the world's biggest share, around 28 per cent, coming from China, 15 per cent from the USA and nine per cent from the EU. India, despite having the second-largest population in the world contributes a mere seven per cent followed by Russia and Japan each with five per cent. Per capita emission shows gross inequality as the rich nations, especially the Middle-Eastern countries including Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arab are on the top with as high as 20 times more emission than an average Indian, an American emits seven times and a Chinese nearly three times more. An Indian, as per the World Bank's 2016 statistics, emits less than two tonnes of CO2 per year which is nearly half of the world average. Prosperity is a primary driver of CO2 emissions, but policy and technological choices do make a difference. Due to higher use of renewables and nuclear energy, the Portuguese, French and English emit less than their neighbours in Germany, Netherlands, and Belgium despite having a similar standard of living.

The energy and heat production sector is the biggest CO2 contributor globally at around 25 per cent, 20 per cent comes from fossil energy using manufacturing industrial sectors such as iron and steel, cement, chemical, petrochemical etc., another 10 per cent comes from other industrial sectors such as mineral extraction, fuel extraction, refining, construction, quarrying, etc., whereas agriculture, forestry and land-use change contribute nearly 24 per cent, followed by transportation and building (heating, cooling, cooking) at 14 per cent and six per cent respectively. Quite clearly, energy production and use, overall, makes-up over 70 per cent of global GHG emission problem. This balance is much distorted in case of India where the energy sector alone contributes to over 68 per cent of total GHG emissions, followed by agriculture, industrial processes, land-use change and forestry with around 20 per cent, six per cent and four per cent respectively.

Falling short

Besides the first global initiative, the Rio Earth Summit held in 1992 which brought in 166 countries to sign the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the world leaders have discussed and negotiated on climate change for 25 years in the Conference of the Parties (COP), yet, failed to arrive at a unified and effective action plan. Whereas the developing nations are concerned that the obligations may hamper needed development for their people, the developed nations simply decline to compromise their luxury. All was not in vain, however. The Kyoto protocol from COP-3 in Japan, Copenhagen Accord from COP-15 in Denmark, Cancun agreement from COP-16 in Mexico and Paris agreement from COP-21 in France, brought some meaningful outcomes.

Kyoto Protocol had set individual emission reduction targets for 37 developed countries based on common but differentiated responsibility and respective capabilities with the target of an overall five per cent emission reduction to 1990 levels in first commitment period (2008-12). But, the second commitment period (2013-2020) which was adopted at COP-8 at Doha in Qatar in 2012 had set a target of 18 per cent reduction which is yet to be operationalised due to unwillingness of certain nations. The Copenhagen Accord made nations acknowledge the need for deep cuts in GHG emissions to hold temperature increase within 2oC temperature margin and reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). This COP became eventful as India, ending a long deadlock, voluntarily pledged to reduce 20 per cent emission intensity of 2005 levels by 2020. The Cancun conference managed to bring developing nations under the emission reduction targets aside from bringing more transparency in reporting with the promise of a USD 100 billion Green Climate Fund to tap into for support. The Cancun Agreement, however, failed to realise Kyoto's second commitment period target and clarity for funding to Green Climate Fund. The Paris Agreement proved a landmark for it's a binding agreement that led all nations to undertake ambitious climate change efforts to limit the global temperature increase in this century

to 2oC above pre-industrial levels while pursuing means to limit the increase to 1.5oC degrees. Working on a five-year cycle, the countries under this agreement are bound to submit their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). An IPCC report of 2018 indicates that limiting the temperature increase within 1.5°C needs significant transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities so that global net CO2 emissions dip by about 45 per cent from 2010 levels and become nil by 2050. The upcoming COP-26 to be held in Glasgow on November 2021 is expected to take this pledge forward.

India leads

India, though contributing just seven per cent of global GHG emission and below global average per capita emission, has a high risk of climate change implication due to its tropical location and vast population. Since over 60 per cent of agriculture in the nation is rain-fed, declining monsoon and frequent hot weather are worrying conditions for agriculture, and ultimately for the food security of India's vast population. Retreating glaciers threaten increasing inflow in the glacier-fed rivers like the Ganges and Brahmaputra whereas rapid melting of the Himalayas snow cover threatens its reliability, affecting the livelihood of millions. The increasing variability

and long-term decrease in river flows can pose a major challenge to hydro and thermal power plants and increase the risk of physical damage from landslides, flash floods, glacial lake outbursts, and other climate-related natural disasters. Sea-levels rising, tropical cyclones, riverine flooding and sea-water intrusion pose a critical threat to densely populated coastal cities such as Mumbai and Kolkata. The migration of people from disaster-affected or degraded areas is expected to bring an array of concerns related to food, shelter, livelihood and security for a huge population.

Health implications such as malnutrition and vector and water-borne diseases can multiply in such cases. Child stunting is projected to increase by 35 per cent by 2050, vector-borne diseases like malaria and diarrheal infections, a major cause of child mortality, are likely to spread into untouched colder regions, whereas, heat waves are likely to become deadlier.

It is easy, thus, to see that India has sufficient motive to tackle climate change as a serious and imminent threat. As it were, India has emerged as a leader in the fight against climate change. It's National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) adopted in June 2008 has incorporated eight national missions towards this goal. India's NDC has set a target of 175 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy and 40 per cent of total power from renewable sources by the year 2030 which is expected to be achieved several years in advance. However, conventional coal-based power appears to remain as a major part of the power mix in the coming decades. But it should be noted the recent economics of solar power have halted the construction of a number of coal-based plants that were lined up, probably for good, which is good news. India's role as a climate leader — through voluntary reduction commitment, International Solar Alliance initiative and push for electric vehicles, clean fuel, energy efficiency, afforestation and green building are steps in the right direction

Value of hope

While the climate change threat is clearly immense yet all is not lost. There is hope that human civilisation can overcome the challenge of climate change with collective and accelerated efforts. Recent developments showing declining use of fossil fuel is a major success for the GHGs emission reduction efforts beside millions saved from pollution-related health problems. The environment-friendly trends in the last decade such as — clean energy technology becoming more efficient and economical, businesses jumping onboard the renewables bandwagon, the falling prices of wind energy and solar photovoltaics by 70-90 per cent, surging cheaper energy storage options, growing off-grid solar and launch of more energy efficiency projects, are a big boost to the effort. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates around USD 240 billion investment in energy efficiency projects in 2018 which also means over 21 million jobs. The transportation sector, the second-largest GHG emitter globally, is seeing rising electronic vehicle (EV) market, predicted to cover 50 per cent of passenger vehicles by 2040. In addition, the agriculture, forest and land-use change, another major GHGs emitter, is adopting regenerative agriculture, lesser meat consumption, afforestation, natural habitat preservation, to help in the fight against climate change.

What's more, the USA, under incoming President Joe Biden, is set to re-join the fight against climate change whereas many multinational companies are taking a pledge to adopt the clean technology and become carbon neutral. The post-Covid era is expected to bring nations closer together in the fight against climate change. There is no other option than an aggressive mitigation action plan, though adaptation to the new normal may buy some time for human civilisation. The pandemic is a wakeup call to society to learn from its follies and start practising a sustainable and responsible lifestyle, lessons that will serve mankind well into the future.

The writer is an environmental research & advocacy professional. Views expressed are personal