Worrying reverberations

The strategic ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia appear to be witnessing a downturn. This is evident from the unexpected changes in President Joe Biden's approach towards the Kingdom and its rulers.

The US has withdrawn its most advanced missile defence system and Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, even as the oil-rich Kingdom is facing continued air attacks from Yemen's Houthi rebels.

The removal of the defence systems was done despite repeated requests by Saudi Arabia and the royals to keep them in place to counter continued airstrikes by Houthi rebels, who are officially designated as terrorists and widely known to be supported by Iran.

The redeployment of the defences from Prince Sultan Airbase outside of Riyadh came as US' Gulf Arab allies nervously watched the chaotic withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, including their last-minute evacuations from Kabul's besieged international airport.

Redeployment of the missiles had been rumoured for months, partly due to a desire to face what American officials see as the looming "great powers conflict" with China and Russia.

The Afghanistan development has shocked the regimes of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and even Qatar which hosted the US-Taliban talks.

Arab leaders are worried over the US debacle in Afghanistan, despite repeated assertions by the Biden administration that the Afghanistan move is not linked to broader US military and economic involvement in the Middle East.

Taliban forces have been pictured with a range of US-made weaponry and vehicles seized from the Afghan military, sparking fear in Saudi Arabia about the enduring threat of Al-Qaeda and ISIS with whom the equipment will end up.

"You know Al-Qaeda targeted the kingdom first before anyone else," said Prince Turki Al Faisal who served as head of the Saudi intelligence services between 1979 and 2001, helping to coordinate anti-Communist activity in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion. He later tried but failed to negotiate the return of Osama bin Laden to Saudi Arabia in the years before 9/11.

"It is very worrisome, that aspect of it, and now with this weaponry, the ally of the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, may get their hands on, it's going to be even more worrisome," he told CNBC in Paris recently.

Prince Sultan Air Base, some 115 km southeast of Riyadh, has hosted several thousand US troops since a 2019 missile and drone attack on the kingdom's oil production. The attack, though claimed by Yemen's Houthi rebels, Saudis believe was carried out by Iran.

The US' unilateral decision to redeploy the anti-missile systems and Patriots from the Saudi base is a matter of concern, especially taking into account that most Gulf allies are worried about the fallout of the Afghan development.

While tens of thousands of American forces remain across the Arabian Peninsula as a counterweight to Iran, Gulf Arab nations worry about the US plan as its military perceives a growing threat in Asia that requires those missile defences.

Tensions remained high as negotiations appeared to be stalled in Vienna over Iran's collapsed nuclear deal with world powers — raising the danger of future confrontations in the region.

Since Biden assumed office, the US-Saudi relationship has soured considerably. Biden's pressure on OPEC to open up the valves as gasoline prices in the US went up, combined with his continuation of talks with Iran on the nuclear deal, have not been taken positively by Saudi Arabia. The US President's push to open up the 9/11 files (the first batch have already been published) has only added to Saudi discontent. Also, the US obsession with Saudi Crown Prince and de-facto ruler Mohammad bin Salman (MBS as he is called) for being behind the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has pushed the kingdom's rulers into a corner.

The US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, on a tour of the Middle East in recent days, was also slated to go to Saudi Arabia but cancelled the trip because of what American officials referred to as scheduling problems.

The fact that Austin travelled to Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, but not Riyadh is a clear affront.

For most Gulf Arabs, as also for Egypt, Biden's moves are a clear continuation of the Obama-Trump strategies, which show a possible end to the US military and security involvement.

"Perceptions matter whether or not they are rooted in cold, cold reality. And the perception is very clear that the US is not as committed to the Gulf as it used to be in the view of many people in decision-making authority in the region," Kristian Ulrichsen, a research fellow at the James A Baker-III Institute for public policy at Rice University, was quoted as saying.

"From the Saudi point of view, they now see Obama, Trump and Biden — three successive presidents — taking decisions that signify to some extent an abandonment," he said.

However, on the face of it, the Saudi defence ministry has described the kingdom's relationship with the US as "strong, longstanding and historic" and asserted that the Saudi military "is capable of defending its lands, seas and airspace, and protecting its people."

According to reports, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain are also worried about the possible US plans to even remove large parts of the tens of thousands of American troops in the region, as a defensive wall against Iran and possible insurgency.

If Afghanistan turns out to be a one-off event, there will be a limited negative impact on Saudi Arabia, the UAE and even Egypt, but some analysts believe it is the start of something larger. All eyes are now focused on the US position in Iraq and its active involvement in Syria and Libya.

Some analysts are expecting that in the coming months, a major geopolitical and economic shift will emerge in the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others will be looking for new power players with Russia and China already knocking at the door.

The writer is a former Editor of PTI and served as the West Asia correspondent for the same. Views expressed are personal