Taking intel seriously

2019 did not take off to a pleasant start as it witnessed three devastating terror strikes in three different parts of the world within a period of three months commencing from mid-February. As the fifth month begins, the world hopes that coming times remain safe and secure from terror attacks. The element of intelligence needs to play a critical part in the near future as in the preceding months, it did not quite measure up to professional expectations.

The year began with a deadly explosion on February 14 killing more than 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel when its convoy was hit by a suicide bomber in Pulwama (Jammu & Kashmir) who was inspired and used by Pakistan-based notorious Islamic terror outfit, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). Its elusive head Masood Azhar had earlier warned about a likely strike as his focus has always been on Kashmir.

Soon after the incident, questions arose if there was adequate intelligence supplied by the state and other intelligence agencies to the enforcers to prevent the unfortunate act. There are two exclusive and dedicated central agencies as arms of the intelligence apparatus to garner hard intelligence and share the same with the concerned to neutralise any untoward happening. Other than these, there is military intelligence and other subsidiary setups including a full-fledged state intelligence formation for gathering hard inputs to act against the forces detrimental to national security.

With such a robust and well-structured Intelligence set up in place, it is hard to fathom why Pulwama strike could not be prevented? Or it is equally possible that there was intelligence available but the relevant agencies didn't act on time even after the receipt of the precious preventable inputs.

The state intelligence officials of J&K are very dedicated and professional. Given the sensitivity and strategic significance of the state, they seem to be forever vigilant. However, the Governor of the state, soon after the blast, had admitted that there was no intelligence available that such a deadly thing was coming. It would, therefore, seem there was something amiss somewhere either in the coordination between the multiple intelligence agencies or some lack of oversight or possibly a huge communication gap. Identifying the perpetrator of the incident who rammed the car in the CRPF convoy or loading such huge quantity of explosives in the car, all such likelihood went unnoticed. Such gaps need a diligent study and tight measures put in place at the earliest to prevent any recurrence.

Now we come to the Christ Church (New Zealand) killings of March 15, coming exactly after a month of the Pulwama incident. Here, the perpetrator is of different faith but common feature with those abetting Pulwama terror is only acerbic hatred towards another faith. Here the killer was a far-right Christian and the victims were all Muslims, and more than fifty in number. Coming to the Intelligence part of it, the Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern admitted that intelligence available for the happening of this ghastly incident was grossly misplaced. At the same time, she said that there were warnings about the planning of misadventures by the right-wing activists but they were not taken seriously.

Jacinda had also admitted subsequently that she had received a precious document in hand which could have prevented the mosques' massacre but it was too late as by then, Brenton Tarrant, the Australian killer had done his job. Intelligence was there yet it couldn't measure about the time leading to the avoidable killing of the innocents. Similarly, the Australian and New Zealand intelligence agencies didn't have any whiff that Brenton had explored identifying enemies of Christians in 2016 itself in Turkey and the issue was politically exploited by President Erdogan in his election campaign of March 31 this year. Similarly, there was no intelligence available with the Australians that Brenton had remitted money to his Austrian far-right friends sharing the same ideology. All escaped the radar of the intelligence services. It would be pertinent to point out that in 2016, New Zealand spent around 179 million worth US dollars to rejuvenate the intelligence services but obviously the hefty sum invested didn't commensurate the results.

Meanwhile, April 21 (Easter Sunday) saw 253 chilling deaths when Islamic fanatics, inspired by ISIS, killed Christian worshippers in several churches and foreign tourists in many popular hotels in various parts of Sri Lanka. Here, a war of words and acrimonious exchange of controversial statements are all over on the role of the Intelligence services immediately in the aftermath of the carnage.

Both, President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe have already begun a blame game living in a deniability mode that intelligence warning of the church and hotel blasts were not shared with them. The self-inflicted perceptions seem preposterous as how can the two top men of the government be kept in dark about such a vital input having bearing on the national security? It may be reiterated that as early as on April 11, Indian intelligence had alerted about the upcoming tragedy. It went unheeded and it is now understood that there is severe infighting within the intelligence set up itself that national security interests were harmed. It would appear that intelligence officers are owing allegiance to different political masters resulting in such a chaotic situation.

Meanwhile, authoritative sources confirm that President Sirisena was apprised of the intelligence lead and three briefing sessions were held. It is further confirmed that senior DIG Nilantha Jaywardane met the President and briefed him personally on April 11 and April 16. Subsequent to receipt of additional intelligence on April 20, Jayawardene briefed the President on phone. His denial seems far from reality and in the internal tussle in the establishment, Defence Secretary, Masiri Fernando, and the IGP Pujith Jayasundara were made scapegoats. This trend is so unhealthy for the crucial intelligence services.

Further, glaring intelligence failure in Sri Lankan intelligence was noticed when in a recent raid in Kattankudy, huge cache of arms and ammunition plus explosives were recovered as well as a fierce encounter ensued killing fifteen persons. All were, unknown to the intelligence of Sri Lanka. Reasons are not easily comprehensible. Since 1980, Saudi money was pumped in leading to mushrooming of 60 mosques in a city of 45,000 people. Wahabism writ runs aggressively and the local population seems to be badly radicalised with the venom of Wahabism. Saudis are also known to be considering establishing an Islamic university in the region so heavily indoctrinated.

In the same vein, activities of the National Towheed Jamaath (NTJ) and its linkages in Tamil Nadu and Kerala escaped the intelligence radar. In sum, it's the intelligence failure that caused so many killings in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday. Perhaps in this context, former minister and ex-Defence Secretary, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who is often credited for having exterminated LTTE terrorism in 2009, recently stated that he would contest the next elections and if elected, on priority, revamp the intelligence networking in the island country by improving surveillance capability. He is bang on so it seems as that's what is required.

We, therefore, see in the comparison of the three terror attacks that intelligence continues to be a key factor and cannot be ignored. That said, intelligence collection is not an easy job. Failures are simple to project but successes are difficult to list as faceless intelligence personally ordinarily go into oblivion unsung and unnoticed. Their services need recognition and the officers credited. On their part, they need to remain apolitical.

In the recent past, France, Belgium, and other countries were also struck by serious intelligence failures. This time ISIS and its affiliates (also the far-right elements) seem to have South Asia as their prime target. If intelligence is not put on top gear, fatalities will only increase making the world bereft of safety and tranquil. The time has possibly come for all members of the intelligence community at the global level to sit and brainstorm to uproot the menace of terror. At least, a sincere and visible attempt can be made.

(The author is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to Mauritius. The views expressed are strictly personal)