Strengthening relations

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first port of call after his second swearing-in will be the Maldives. He is expected to make a two-day visit to capital Malé on June 7 and 8. There is a possibility of his making a short trip to Sri Lanka as well either on his way to or on way back home from the Maldives.

Five years of the first NDA government's neighbourhood diplomacy did not bring much success to write home about. Nepal continued to drift closer to China. In Sri Lanka, there was a power struggle within the government. President Maithripala Sirisena of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party who was considered friendly to India suddenly dismissed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party and inducted former president and one-time rival Mahinda Rajapaksa in his place. Eventually, the Sri Lanka Supreme Court invalidated Rajapaksa's appointment and reinstated Wickremesinghe as PM. But the cold war between the President and the Prime Minister continues. Unfortunately, the name of India's intelligence agency RAW was dragged in the internal politics of the island nation.

China remained as hostile to India as ever. Only under international pressure did it agree to declare Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as an international terrorist. Relations with Myanmar were so-so. After initially agreeing, Seychelles turned down India's request for constructing a military base on the Assumption island, apparently under Chinese pressure.

Only in the Maldives did the political developments took place in a way conducive to improving friendship and cooperation between the two countries. In the elections held in December last year, President Abdulla Yameen's Progressive Party of Maldives was voted out by the people. Maldivian Progressive Party of deposed president Mahomed Nasheed stormed back to power, winning 81 seats in the 87-member House. Nasheed's close associate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih became the new president. Under Yameen, Maldives came under the dominant influence of China. Yameen ruled the country with an iron hand. Democracy was suppressed, all opposition leaders were imprisoned. India-Maldives relations took a nose dive.

It is against these recent developments in the Maldives that Prime Minister Modi is making his first trip abroad after his electoral victory. Yameen's pro-Beijing policy has cost the country heavily. It has landed itself in a debt-trap. The Maldives owes China nearly $1500 million or a per capita debt of $8000! It does not know how to repay this loan. Incidentally, Maldives is not an exception. 'Communist' China has been pursuing the age-old imperialist policy of economic colonialism and many countries are now in huge debt to China that they can never repay.

The Maldives expects India to come to its aid in economic development. However, for India, helping the Maldives out of the Chinese debt trap is out of the question. India can build infrastructure projects in the Maldives in a way that will prove beneficial to both countries. But the problem of liquidating the Chinese debt will have to be faced by Nasheed and his government. Tourism and fishing are two major sources of Maldives' revenue. The archipelago consists of nearly 1200 atolls only 200 of which are inhabited. The possibility of making some other islands habitable and turning them into tourist spots should be explored; India can play a positive role in this.

The Chinese navy is expanding rapidly and Beijing is eager to extend its footprint in the Indian Ocean. Maldives' location makes it strategically important to both India and China and hence will continue to be at the centre of India-China competition for dominance in the Indian Ocean Region. Important shipping routes pass by the Maldives archipelago. China has been trying, without success, to make a naval base in the Maldives. So India will have to take a long-term view of its relations with Maldives vis-à-vis China. Cooperation in the defence field assumes importance in this context. India can also help the Solih government in strengthening the democratic foundations of the country so that another Yameen-like takeover can be prevented.

The Maldives faces another challenge of radical Islam. Little known to the outside world, radical Islam has been growing fast in the Maldives. A couple of years ago there were reports that some two hundred Maldivians had joined the ISIS along with militants from other Muslim countries. The Constitution adopted in August 2008, makes Islam the State religion of Maldives. Section 'D' of Article 9 of the Constitution debars non-Muslims from acquiring citizenship of Maldives.

During the heyday of Yameen's rule when democracy was suppressed, Islamic extremists became active. There were reports of liberal bloggers being stabbed to death by extremist elements. A journalist, Ahmed Rilwan, who opposed both the Yameen regime and radical Islam, was abducted. The inquiry into his mysterious disappearance was stopped by Yameen. Rilwan was officially declared dead just after December elections and before the new government came to power. A liberal blogger, Yameen Rasheed, was stabbed to death for holding liberal views.

If the rise of Islamic radicalism is not checked it is very likely to lead to a drop in tourist traffic. That will directly impact the Maldivian economy. Tourism accounts for nearly a quarter of the country's GDP. However, President Solih is aware of the threat posed by radical Islam.

After the exit of Yameen, there is a new mood prevailing in the country. Radical Islam will no longer enjoy State patronage.

(The views expressed are strictly personal)