Strategic advances

There is no let-up in the vigorous Chinese pursuits in its pipe dream project of Kra canal designed for connecting the Gulf of Thailand with the Andaman sea, curtailing the sailing time by around three days; avoiding the circuitous route of Malacca Straits. This Chinese concept, first originating nearly 14 years ago, has a strategic plan of meeting its ever-increasing oil imports from Africa and the Middle East. Initially, China had even offered to meet the expenses regarding the proposed construction of the canal along with the Chinese port facilities and refineries as part of its 'rope of pearls' strategy of forward bases and energy security. Further, the Chinese plan had outlined a decade long construction period engaging 30,000 workers at a whopping cost of nearly 20-25 billion US dollars. More strategically, it seeks that the Canal be formally a part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It's pertinent to know that the proposed Canal would be approximately 135 kilometres long, ranging in width to 450 metres and up to 26 metres deep (enough for aircraft carriers to pass). These vital statistics are important to fathom any hidden Chinese plans, hitherto unknown.

To achieve its objective of successfully installing the Kra Canal project, China has been aggressively wooing Thailand to concede to the Chinese overtures. In its typical style of trying all options in a veiled manner of intimidation and pressure tactics, the Chinese diplomatic Mission in Bangkok, sought the good offices of the Thai Chinese Culture and Economic Association of Thailand (TCCEAT), forwarding a formal proposal last year to the National Reform Council (NRC) to carry out a feasibility study on linking of the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. TCCEAT, which functions like the Thai Parliament, perceived that the Kra Canal, once activated, would end Thailand's ongoing economic slump, making it a global shipping and economic hub on the lines of Panama Canal. China was able to push this utopian idea by making the NRC agree to conduct a feasibility study expected to be completed roughly within 10 months.

Continuing its plans with a visible resolve, China is also pushing its plans through the Thai Canal Association (TCA). TCA has several former military officials on its rolls who are furthering the Chinese agenda. Many Chinese business houses are thought to be financing the organisation to suit Chinese designs.

However, the silver lining seen in the entire move is the attitude amongst a major section of the Thai Security Establishment who have expressed grave apprehensions about this project, outlining that if implemented, it can increase the threat of separatism leaving a profound impact on the territorial integrity of Thailand fuelling the age-old demand of the

Muslim separatists for autonomy for the southern Thai provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat which has a predominantly Muslim population of 85 per cent.

Against this backdrop, it is imperative to dwell upon the recent bloodshed perpetrated in Southern Thailand when on November 5, 15 innocents died in one of the deadliest terror attacks in the region by suspected Muslim separatists. The victims, believed to be security personnel, were robbed of their arms, thus adding more firepower in the arsenal of the Muslim militants.

This incident is a major security blow to the Thai security forces and it gives ample opportunity to the Thai Security Establishment to prevail upon the TCCEAT and the TCA to reconsider giving in to the Chinese pressure and instead highlight the recent attack as a case in point to scuttle Chinese ambitions of pursuing their canal project. It's clear that such acts of terror violence will increase as then the Malay Muslim militants, who have been fighting to end what they describe as the Thai colonialism, seeking independence, would thus vindicate their illegitimate demand depriving the Buddhists their due. November 5 terror assault is a warning shot to take the matter seriously as the southern parts of Thailand, of late, have been reeling under spells of severe radicalisation mostly caused by the acerbic and offensive hate speech unleashed by Zakir Naik operating from Malaysia.

As China intensifies its efforts to pursue the canal plans, on its part, Thailand also needs to rein in the separatist elements active under the fold of Patani Consultative Council (Majlis Syurya Patani) or Mara Patani – an umbrella organisation of Malay separatist organisations. Meanwhile, sources close to Thai Prime Minister reveal in anonymity that the PM is downplaying the recent terror incident lest the tourists are discouraged from visiting Thailand. This ostrich-like attitude is unlikely to pay any dividends to bring back peace. For stalling the Chinese canal plans, primarily to contain Chinese growing strategic influence in the region as also to arrest the renewed terror trend in Thailand, a hands-on approach is called for. Experts of the region reckon that instead of linking the Gulf of Thailand with the Andaman Sea as conceived by the Chinese, it could give an impetus to the separatists to step up their terror campaign targeting the Buddhists and Thai security forces.

Shantanu Mukharji is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Mauritius. Views expressed are personal