Of little difference

The exit of Israel's longest-serving Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is unlikely to make any difference on hot-button international issues such as policies towards Palestinians, as his successor Naftali Bennett is an equally anti-peace right-wing hardliner.

Bennett, who is heading an unwieldy coalition government — comprising the political right, left and centre, including an Arab party known in Israel as Ra'am — with a wafer-thin majority, also has hard-line views with regards to Iran and its nuclear programme.

Under the coalition deal, Bennett, a 49-year-old orthodox Jew and high-tech millionaire, will be replaced as prime minister in 2023 by the centrist Yair Lapid, a popular former television host.

In the speech prior to the confidence vote in the 60-member Knesset, Bennett promised to continue Netanyahu's confrontational policy opposing any movement from the US to revive the dismantled Iran nuclear deal. "Israel will not allow Iran to arm itself with nuclear weapons", Bennett said

Palestinians are unmoved by the change of power in Israel, predicting that Bennett, a former defence chief under Netanyahu who advocates annexing parts of the occupied West Bank, would pursue the same right-wing agenda. Apart from being a staunch supporter of Jewish settlements, Bennett also opposes a two-state solution to the conflict.

He has established himself as a politician by aggressively backing illegal Israeli settlements. A sudden climb down from his stand would upset his far-right supporters, some of whom are already describing him as "a traitor" for joining a coalition with centrists, leftists and Arabs.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' office has called the Israeli parliamentary vote that unseated Netanyahu as an "internal Israeli affair".

Palestinian groups in Gaza vowed to keep resisting Israel. "We aren't counting on any change in the occupation governments, since they are united on the policy of killing Palestinians and confiscating Palestinian rights," senior Hamas leader Abu Zuhri was quoted as saying. Gaza has been under an Israeli air, land and sea blockade since 2007.

Palestinian foreign ministry, in a statement, said it was "inaccurate" to call Bennett's coalition government a "government of change" unless there was a significant shift in its position on the Palestinian right to self-determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The foreign ministry further asked several questions: "What is its position on the settlement and annexation processes? What is its position on Jerusalem and respect for the historical and legal situation there? Its position on the signed agreements? Its position on the resolutions of international legitimacy? Its position on the two-state solution and negotiations on the basis of the principle of land for peace?"

Bennett, who heads the ultra-nationalist Yamina party and describes himself as "more right-wing" than Netanyahu, had earlier said that the creation of a Palestine state would be suicidal for Israel. He had also called for the annexation of most of the occupied West Bank.

Given the fragility of the new government that does not represent a clearly articulated and detailed policy agenda, it would be better to keep expectations low. Each party has agreed to put aside its policy ambitions and govern on the basis of some general principles of good government with the common agenda of keeping Netanyahu out.

Keeping this in view, Bennett should avoid sweeping moves on hot-button issues such as policy towards the Palestinians, and instead focus on domestic reforms.

An early crisis could pit the coalition partners against each other and could cause a backlash from the very diverse constituents they represent.

A more pertinent question is whether Ra'am, that endorses the two-state solution and is considered a "non-Zionist" party, will be able to safeguards the interests of Palestinians.

Four members of the Arab party in the Knesset would have little influence on Israel's policies and no one else in the coalition is expected to go out on a limb for the sake of the Palestinians in the occupied territories. The new government requires the constant support of all its partners, including the Ra'am.

Although the government has not taken any positions on hot-button issues, it is a fact that any single member of the coalition can bring down the government at any time. This would mean that the government would not be able to take any major decisions — good and bad.

Such a situation also means no breakthrough in the peace process, although, it reduces the chances of any major wars or settlement expansion.

It is not only Abbas' four Knesset members who could bring down the government, which survives on a slim majority, but also those of the Labour party and the left-wing Meretz.

Relations between India and Israel, which has witnessed an upward swing with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Netanyahu developing personal bonhomie in the past seven years, is unlikely to be affected.

The two countries have come a long way since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1992. Recently, India was among the 14 countries that abstained from voting on a UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR) resolution calling for a probe into the alleged war crimes committed by Israel in Gaza.

This shift by India, which otherwise has been a strong supporter of Palestinian rights for the past several decades, is reflective of the change in its polity, with ideological standing apparently shifting towards to the centre-right.

In fact, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki sharply reacted to India's stand at the UNHCR. "India missed an opportunity to join the long overdue, on the path to accountability, justice and peace," he said in a letter to External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.

Although the Netanyahu era is over after 12 years of his rule, it is too early to rule him out for good. It is not the first time he has lost the premiership, only to return to power again. He served as prime minister for 12 consecutive years, and another three years before that, becoming the longest-serving PM of the country.

The writer is a former Editor of PTI and served as the West Asia correspondent for the same. Views expressed are personal