No solution in sight

Libya's first presidential election since the overthrow of dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 was due to take place on December 24. That could have probably united the war-torn North African country after a decade of violence and bitter upheaval.

However, just two days before the UN-sponsored polls were due to take place, the voting was postponed by a month to January 24 on account of logistical hurdles, legal wrangling over election rules and row over eligibility of candidates.

Parliamentary polls were slated to be held a month after the presidential election. However, the High Electoral Commission (HNEC) — set to handle and manage the electoral process — ordered the dissolution of the electoral committees, effectively postponing the polls.

It was done after a parliamentary commission tasked with conducting the exercise said it was impossible to conduct the poll.

The immediate trigger for the halt or delay of these elections was a controversy over the powers of the President and eligibility of candidates.

The emergence of a deep divide among the front-runners — Saif-al-Islam Qaddafi, son of Muammar Gaddafi; Khalifa Haftar, the military strongman who dominates in parts of eastern Libya; and the interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid al Dbeibah, heading Government of Unity since February last year — has complicated the matter.

Saif was sentenced to death in 2015 by a court in Tripoli for war crimes committed during a battle to prolong his father's 40-year rule in the face of the 2011 NATO-backed uprising. He is also wanted by the International Court of Justice for allegedly committing crimes against humanity during the uprising.

A court on November 24 had declared him ineligible to run for the elections. His appeal against the decision was delayed for several days when armed militiamen blocked the court. The ruling was however overturned on December 2, clearing the way for him to contest the elections. He remains a figurehead for Libyans who are still loyal to his father.

Haftar, a warlord and the head of the self-styled Libyan National Army, had attempted to take over capital Tripoli in 2019, causing hundreds of deaths and wounding as many. He is also accused of committing war crimes. Haftar's support base lies in the east of the country. His attempt to capture Tripoli was challenged by militias in the west.

Dbeibah was appointed as interim prime minister by the UN in February last year to prepare the strategy for national elections and restore peace and normalcy in the country. However, he eventually decided to run for the office, despite being technically excluded by the UN plan.

All three have won appeals in courts, overturning disqualifications either by HNEC or other courts. The HNEC asked Libya's parliament, based in the east, to set January 24 as the date for the first round of the election after clarifying laws on the qualification of candidates.

From the beginning itself, the chances of success of the election were seriously undermined, when Haftar-affiliated House of Representatives devised the rules. It is alleged that the house had manipulated the rules to exclude certain candidates.

"The inadequacy of electoral legislation with regard to the judiciary's role in electoral appeals and disputes had damaged the right of the commission to defend its decisions about disqualification of a number of candidates", the HNEC had said.

This was an apparent reference to a court ruling that reinstated Gaddafi son's candidacy after the electoral commission had rejected it.

The presidential election process in the country was never going to be easy. In 2012, after the fall of Muammar Qaddafi, the rebel-led National Transitional Council handed power to an authority known as the General National Congress, which was given an 18-month period to establish a democratic Constitution.

However, the instability persisted. There was a string of major terrorist attacks targeting foreign diplomatic mission, including an attack on the US consulate in Libya's eastern city of Benghazi in September 2012 that left the US ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans dead.

In May 2014, Haftar launched an offensive against armed groups in Benghazi and named his forces the Libyan National Army.

Subsequently, Libya was divided and left with two governments and two parliaments. In December 2015, after months of talks and international pressure, the rival parliaments signed an agreement in Morocco for forming a Government of National Accord (GNA).

In March 2016, GNA Chief Fayez Al-Sarraj tried to install the new government but the House of Representatives did not hold a vote of confidence in the new government and Haftar refused to recognise it.

Haftar in January 2019 launched an offensive in oil-rich southern Libya, seizing the capital of the region, Sabha, and one of the country's main oilfields. In April he asked his forces to advance in Tripoli. However, his move was scuttled after Turkey deployed troops to defend the administration in Tripoli.

A UN-brokered ceasefire was finally agreed in Geneva in October 2020, and was followed by an agreement in Tunisia to hold elections in December 2021.

A provisional government of National Unity, headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, was approved by the parliament. The speaker of the house later ratified a law governing the presidential election that was seen as bypassing due process and favouring Haftar. The parliament later passed a vote of no-confidence in the unity government, leaving the election and peace process in a limbo.

This is a critical moment for Libya. It is unclear so far whether the election will go ahead at all. There is a fear that the fragile peace in the country could collapse if disputes over the election are not resolved quickly.

Holding elections this month seems a difficult task since none of the issues that led to its postponement has been addressed so far.

The international community should support internal as well as UN-brokered dialogues that could pave the way for holding the election to form a stable government that would help in achieving a durable peace in the war-torn country.

The writer is a former Editor of PTI and served as the West Asia correspondent for the same. Views expressed are personal