Lull before the storm?

All does not look good with Pakistan. It's decision to enter into an unethical compromise with the religious extremist group Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) continues to be questioned by the media, social segments, academia and political opposition, pushing the Imran Khan government to the backfoot. Also, the government's ambiguous and non-transparent compromise with the TLP is being described as a complete surrender to the ultras, conceding to all their demands. This is further compounded by the conflicting claims and counter claims made by the Minister of Interior, Sheikh Rashid and Minister of Information and Broadcasting, Fawad Chaudhry — exposing the establishment's glaring lack of coordination in dealing with a complex national crisis and adding to Imran Khan's woes.

No sooner the government heaved a sigh of relief by buying time to 'diffuse' the monumental challenge presented by Progressive Democratic Movement (PDM), the multi-party opposition alliance, than Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Secretary General, PDM, announced that the alliance will launch a slew of anti-government rallies in principal cities of Pakistan, protesting against the government's anti-people policies. Outlining the action plan, the PDM disclosed that it would commence the first march in Karachi on November 13, followed by Quetta on November 17, then in Peshawar on November 20 and finally to Lahore before storming into the capital Islamabad. Such a plan has rattled the government as it would mount further pressure on the fledgling regime. The PDM chief, Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman, was also present when this announcement was made. The focus would be on corruption, nepotism, failed economic policies and unchecked inflation. In other words, Imran Khan's plate is full, with a bumpy road lying ahead.

Meanwhile, the media has also stepped up its tirade against the vulnerable government through a series of opinion pieces in the popular dailies. Gen (Retd) Talat Masood, who is a regular political commentator, in his latest writeup for Express Tribune, articulated Pakistan's ongoing problems. He has described the government's abject failure in tackling the TLP imbroglio, which Gen Masood feels, like others, had taken the country into a hostage situation. He is scathingly critical of the government's failed policies in dealing with the economic turmoil, rising fuel prices, and even its weak-kneed approach towards addressing the flawed educational policies where every Tom, Dick and Harry are obtaining PhD degrees at a premium, which are below par the international standards.

Most crucially, the commentator opines about the government's weakness which stands exposed from the way it handled the selection of DG, ISI. Decision of choosing such an important appointment was conspicuous by a flip flop policy, and absence of cohesion was markedly noticed. First, Lt Gen. Anjum, then Lt Faiz Hameed, and finally, on November 19, Lt Gen Anjum is again expected to formally take charge from Lt Gen Hameed who is slated to move to command the important Peshawar Corps. However, the suspense remains, as judging by Pakistan's history, there's many a slip between the cup and the lip. Other than this, the continuous terror attacks in the tribal belts show the inherent weakness in the system.

Apart from these insinuations, Gen. Masood surmises that all these factors indicate that there are no easy ways of course-correction for a nation like Pakistan without a dedicated and visionary leadership. These are strong words from a veteran Pakistan watcher who has been in the system, and that too in critical positions. Such an assessment is hard to ignore and it is hoped Prime Minister Imran Khan has already read this warning and words of caution through his dossier of press clippings.

Amid these problems gripping Pakistan from all sides, there are reports emanating that Chief of the Army Staff, Gen Qamar Ahmad Bajwa has fallen out with Prime Minister Imran Khan, chiefly because of appointment of the DG ISI which is undoubtedly the most powerful position in the Pakistan set-up. Lt Gen Hameed is thought to be the choice of the Prime Minister while Lt Gen Anjum is backed by Gen Bajwa. It would mean Imran Khan, who was publicly claiming all throughout that he had the support of his army chief, now no longer enjoys that. On the ground, it would seem that Bajwa is calling the shots. And in Pakistan, political survival without the army is impossible. In the meantime, reports show that 111 Infantry Brigade, which is known for 'facilitating' coups since Gen (later Field Marshal) Ayub Khan's takeover in 1958 then of Gen Zia ul Haq and Gen Pervez Musharraf, is being watched by all quarters. As of now, things are fluid. Either way, Prime Minister Imran Khan remains most vulnerable in terms of political survival. His political moves so far have been more of an amateur than that of a seasoned politician. Those in uniform seem to be more dexterous in their moves. Therefore, November 19 and the events that ensue, look unpredictable and are worth taking note of. Experts reckon that this "lull before the storm" cannot be ignored.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the PM of Mauritius. Views expressed are personal.