Losing from all ends
While the timing of Imran Khan’s Moscow visit was questionable, it is also likely to distance Pakistan away from the West
It would ordinarily be very unusual for a head of state or government to visit a foreign country when the latter is engaged in a full-scale war with a neighbour. And yet, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan recently made a two-day Moscow visit when Russia had just embarked on a 'military operation' that is leading to colossal loss of human lives, misery, and the wanton destruction of military and civil architecture. During such military conflicts, a Prime Minister level figure does not venture out of their country; nor does the host country entertain dignitary visits and ceremonial commitments, prioritizing war operations instead. It seems that a conspicuous exception was made here given Pakistan's insistence on a visit even in these circumstances.
Now, the reasons forwarded by the Foreign Office, Islamabad for this much drummed up Moscow trip look far from convincing – they argue that the visit was long overdue and unavoidable given that a multi-billion-dollar energy deal was to be linked with a host of Russian oil companies. But the timing of the visit poses questions. What was the tearing hurry, given this was the first time in 20 years that Pakistan's Prime Minister visited Russia? Several sceptics assert that China pressured Pakistan to join the Russia-led axis, apparently to wean Islamabad away from the US camp.
This is seen as a counter to the US's anti-China stance and its attempts to woo India with Quad (a strategic security dialogue between the US, India, Japan and Australia). Pakistan seems to be resetting its foreign policy with a thrust on reframing its relationship with Moscow now that the US has gradually created a strategic distance from Pakistan, especially after American troops withdrew from Afghanistan last year.
Imran's Moscow visit has stirred widespread debate within and beyond Pakistan, dividing opinions. Ayesha Ijaz Khan, a London-based lawyer of Pakistan origin and a columnist reacting to the visit asserted in a prominent Pakistani daily that Pakistani foreign policy has lost its independence. This is a grave, bold statement. Khan argues that Pakistan may be cosmetically happy as Imran Khan, in his three and a half-hour meeting with Putin, called upon his host to do something for Afghanistan. More significantly, he raised the Kashmir issue, drawing Russia's attention towards alleged human rights abuses in the region.
Ayesha is not convinced on either point – first, she argues, Putin is not going to address anything related to Afghanistan, whether an economic package or a political solution to the Taliban woes; and second, Russia as an ally of India, is unlikely to raise the issue of so-called excesses in Kashmir. Indo-Russian ties are time tested and proven on many occasions. In fact, the erstwhile Soviet Union had entered into a historic Indo-Soviet treaty in 1971, which helped the creation of Bangladesh. Therefore, it would be wishful thinking for Pakistan to expect that the issues Imran Khan raised in his meeting with Putin will yield desirable outcomes.
A section of the Pakistan polity feels that Pakistan has its own place in changing geopolitical dynamics. But Pakistan watchers suspect that warming up to Moscow will in all likelihood alienate the country from many of its trade partners in the West. More crucially, it is the West that determines Pakistan's listing on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and any insulation from such countries will incur their wrath. Abundant caution is needed if the country is to safeguard its interests.
Dawn, the widely read English daily of Pakistan, states in its editorial of February 26 that "the improving relations with Moscow are to be welcomed, but it is also crucial that Pakistan maintains a balance in foreign ties so that it doesn't end up favouring one side over the other." Alas, this is a tough challenge for the Pakistan government, which is already grappling with internal problems that threaten its very survival. Proximity to Russia does not hold out the promise of a solution, neither in the short nor the long term. Further, trying to forge new strategic alliances against the current backdrop of geopolitical turmoil could add to the nation's existing woes.
The writer is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst, and the former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Mauritius. Views expressed are personal
