In a stumbling state

Sudan's tryst with democracy has hit a wall after the military seized control of the transitional government in a coup, throwing the country once again into a very volatile and unpredictable situation.

The democratic process in the country had begun just two years ago after Sudan's long-time dictator Omar al Bashir was ousted amid mass protests in 2019. Civil society and protest leaders, along with the military, reached a power-sharing arrangement that put both in charge of the country, with the commitment of transitioning to complete civilian rule, which would lead to a new Constitution and elections in 2023.

The armed forces seized power last week after months of simmering tensions between the military and civilian factions in the transitional government. The country has been on edge since a failed coup by loyalists of ex-dictator Omar al Bashir in September, unleashing bitter recriminations between military and civilian groups sharing the power.

This development brought the divisions into open, with military leaders accusing civilian politicians of creating the conditions for a coup by ignoring the needs of the people, especially in wake of the country's dire economic situation and unemployment. Inflation has topped 400 per cent. While the military seized the moment to accuse the government of ignoring people's needs, civilian leaders criticised the military for threatening the democratic transition.

After taking over the power, the Chairman of the country's ruling council, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan declared a state of emergency, dissolved the transitional government and the council, and arrested many political leaders including Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok.

The coup also came just weeks before the military was supposed to hand over the leadership of the governing council that runs the country, to the civilians.

The coup is a stark violation of the 2019 Constitutional Charter that was agreed upon by the Transitional Military Council and Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), an alliance of political movements and parties and a coalition of rebel forces. It was formed following the December 2018 protests that culminated in the toppling of the Bashir regime.

The Constitutional Charter called for a power-sharing transitional period of three years until elections are held and the civilian rule is established. Under the charter, a civilian transitional government led by Hamdok was established in 2019. Also, an Empowerment Removal Committee was created to dismantle the former regime of Bashir and restructure its security services and all its institutions.

The power-sharing formula between the military and civilian factions was supported by the West, primarily the US, the African Union and the Arab League among others.

But after six decades of mainly military rule, with rare exceptions, there was always the apprehension that the military, including the influential Rapid Support Force (RSF) paramilitary militia, would find ways to derail the democratic transition and end the shaky alliance. That's what has exactly happened.

The takeover of power by Burhan has thrown expectations of democracy in the country into uncertainty and has forced thousands of people onto the streets to reject a return of military rule and demand a transition towards civilian rule back on track.

Civilian leaders had essentially reached the limits of their ability to reform the political and economic space without the military giving an inch. For months, the transitional governing structure — split between the civilian leaders who helped topple Bashir in 2019 and the country's powerful security services — had been unravelling, with the military particularly fearful of losing its grip on power.

The writing for the coup was on the wall amid signs that the tensions between the civilian and the military leaders were reaching their breaking point as pressure grew on the military to keep its commitment to hand over its powers to the civilian government. There were also calls for more government accountability, especially over abuses by security forces, including those related to a 2019 massacre of peaceful protestors.

The army probably felt that it needed to protect its interests, both political and economic, that had come from being in power for decades. They seem to be not inclined to give that up and the coup was their last shot to hold onto power. The coup has reignited resistance as protesters returned to the streets in cities and towns across Sudan to denounce the military takeover

The military, while carrying out the coup, may have assumed that the rest of the region would turn a blind eye, namely Egypt and Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These countries have not only close ties with Sudan but are also known for not embracing democracy.

The US is trying to put some pressure on the Gulf countries, like Saudi Arabia, to get them to use their influence to avert a deeper crisis in Sudan. Whether such international pressure will work is an open question, especially in the light of the development taking place even after the US Special Envoy to Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman's message to Sudanese officials to stick to the democratic transition or risk losing US support.

The US has suspended USD 700 million in aid to Sudan. The US, along with the United Kingdom and Norway that has traditionally engaged with Sudan, has condemned the coup. The African Union has suspended Sudan. The UN Security Council has expressed serious concern about the takeover and urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint and engage in dialogue without pre-conditions.

Despite international and regional pressure on the military to restore the transitional government, observers say it is difficult to see a way forward under the same framework as the trust has been broken. The military staged the coup knowing fully well the likely consequences of their actions. Although the international condemnation is unanimous, it is unlikely to be sufficient to reverse the situation.

The situation offers a bleak outlook for Sudan's democratic experiment. But the civil society and pro-democracy groups that played a key role in bringing about the revolution that ousted Bashir remained organised and determined. They are mobilising people to preserve the democratic experiment and are organising large-scale protests against the coup.

Besides the issue of governance, the country is also in deep economic disarray. It has one of the world's lowest Covid-19 pandemic vaccination rates. The country may face an even tougher economic situation in the days ahead as a result of the coup since international assistance would not be coming, including Sudan's debt-relief process with the IMF.

It is in the interest of Sudan and its people that the civilian-led transitional government is restored to represent the will of the people.

The writer is a former Editor of PTI and served as the West Asia correspondent for the same. Views expressed are personal