Conveniently forgotten reinstatement

In 2015, the then Vice President Joe Biden gave a speech on the Iran Nuclear Deal, "This is a good deal, first and foremost, for the United States. It's a good deal for the world, the region, and it's a good deal for Israel and the Gulf Cooperation States. And I tell you I firmly believe it will make us and Israel safer, not weaker". This was indeed the generally accepted view and the global watchdog agency, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), also confirmed the routine compliance of its provisions, by Iran. However, in a recklessly unilateral move, the subsequent Donald Trump administration reneged on the deal made by the previous Obama-Biden administration, and reimposed crushing and humiliating sanctions. Excluding the US, all other signatories of the P5+1 (France, China, Russia, UK, Germany) and IAEA warned against the ill-advised move, yet the deal was scrapped. Besides the unfairness of the move, it emboldened the hardline elements in Iran, revived Iran's nuclear enrichment programme and pushed Tehran into the corner of China and Russia – there was simply no upside to the Trump move.

Carefully criticising Trump, the Democratic Presidential campaign of Biden was predicted to revive the Iran Nuclear Deal. But, the pulse of American politics is such that an open admission of guilt (even by a previous and rival dispensation) on Iran, must remain mealy-mouthed admission. In an Op-Ed by Biden himself on Sep 13, 2020, he stated, "I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy. If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations". Implicitly, unlike the Republicans, the Democrats proposed reinstating the Iran Nuclear Deal. When Biden ultimately triumphed for Presidentship, there was unstated hope in Tehran and most capitals (except perhaps in Tel Aviv and capitals of Arab Sheikhdoms). It has been over a year and half of the Biden Presidency, and the purported reinstatement of the Iran Nuclear Deal is nowhere in sight.

There are powerful political lobbies and manufactured emotions within US politics that debar rapprochement with Iran. Other recent developments, including the debilitating economic effect of the Covid pandemic, Ukraine war, rising fuel costs et al, have only emboldened the bargaining power of these lobbies to exert even more pressure on the beleaguered Biden, to desist him from engaging meaningfully with Iran. Biden simply lacks the political heft and confidence to walk-the-campaign-talk on Iran, as the perceived cost of honouring his campaign commitment on the Iran Nuclear Deal is simply insignificant, compared to the perceived retaliatory cost from lobbies supporting Israel and the interest of the Arab Sheikhdoms. The serendipitous coalescing of Israel with the Arab Sheikhdoms (e.g., opening of recent embassies) has put a sharpened and consolidated pressure on Biden, and it was telling during Biden's maiden Presidential trip to the Middle East.

Besides Iranian angularity, Biden's campaign promise had included making Saudi Arabia regime into a 'pariah' over the 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi – this awkward commitment also popped up with the optics of Biden fist-bumping Saudi Prince Mohammad Bin Salman and ostensibly having a 'frank' conversation with him. Reality is that the Biden administration has the weakest leverage with the Sheikhdoms and Israel, and the traditional 'allies' are at their lowest ebb with Washington DC – the unusual reluctance of Israel and the Sheikhdoms to openly condemn Russian aggression in Ukraine (to the consternation of Washington DC) was telling in this regard.

Symbolically, becoming the first US President to fly directly to Saudi Arabia from Israel, Biden used his recent trip to the Middle East to earn brownie points with Tel Aviv and Riyadh, at the cost of Tehran. Biden's attempt to ingratiate himself to the Israelis led him to gush, "you need not be a Jew to be a Zionist"! Instead of resuscitating the fractured cause of the Iran Nuclear Deal, Biden ratcheted up the vitriol on Iran with suggestions that the US will, "not wait forever" for Iran to rejoin and that he'd be willing to "use force as a last resort"! Meanwhile, similar attempts to mollycoddle the Saudis whilst paying lip service to the earlier threat of making the Saudi regime "the pariah that they are" led to Prince Mohammad bin Salman cheekily retort with "Remember Abu Ghraib?" Furthermore, attempts to get the Sheikhdoms to ramp up oil production, with Saudi Arabia at the forefront of OPEC leadership, was met with stony and embarrassing inaction.

Biden's recent visit and vain attempts to move the favourability dial in the Middle East has been lukewarm at best, with his staid statements and contradictory actions confirming the improbability of forthcoming reinstatement of the Iran Nuclear Deal. If anything, Biden's visit highlights the diminishing leverage of American power, even in its traditional turf of geopolitics. Conversely, the consequential impact of Trump's 'Abraham Accord' is playing to Biden's detriment as that disallows any forward movement on re engagement with Iran, whilst, allowing the regional 'allies' to selectively invoke the US patronage, and ignore portions that are not to its liking, owing to local politics. This muddle puts the Iran Nuclear Deal on a backburner (if at all), it dangerously weakens the moderate voices within Iran, and allows Iran to come dangerously close to developing nuclear weapons than ever before.

The writer is the former Lt Governor of Andaman and Nicobar Islands & Puducherry. Views expressed are personal