Call for counterterrorism

ISIS chief and most dreaded Islamic terrorist, Abu Bakr-al-Baghdadi, who always dreamt of creating a pan-Islamic Caliphate enforcing brutal medieval laws, was killed by the US special forces on October 26 in his safe house in northwestern Syria. Earlier, there have been periodic reports suggesting that Baghdadi was killed but only to be later found untrue. This time, however, no other than US President Trump confirmed the killing, describing gory details as to how the slain Baghdadi whimpered, cried and ran like a coward through a tunnel dragging his three children before getting perished after detonating his suicide vest.

The President further disclosed that a dog of the US Special Forces was injured though now stated to be out of danger. This dog, as claimed by the President, chased Baghdadi to the end of the tunnel.

These inputs suggest the scale and enormous magnitude of a full proof and professionally sound operation which led to the much-needed riddance of Baghdadi. It was almost on the lines of the manner in which Osama bin Laden was exterminated in May 2011. Other notable casualties, done away by similar modus operandi, were Gaddafi of Libya and Iraqi President Saddam Hussain.

It must be emphasised that in this entire game plan, Intelligence played a crucial role in eliminating Baghdadi as for the last several weeks, there were untiring efforts on part of the US to gather the pinpointed location where Baghdadi was hiding. It was a tough challenge as the ISIS supremo was frequently changing his hideouts and was elusive to his own cadres. He moved with a bunch of his select confidantes in a minibus, discussing strategic agenda and planning for a future course of action.

As part of the operation, CIA picked up one Ismael-al-Ethawi, who is believed to have knowledge of even the minutest details of Baghdadi's movements and killing plans neutralising his opponents. Ethawi is known to be a PhD in Islamic Sciences and is an ex Al Qaeda hand who was inducted in 2006 but was arrested by the US in 2008. Later, he escaped to Syria but CIA kept a tab on his whereabouts. Subsequently, in a major tip-off, Ismael was picked up by the Turkish authorities and handed over to the Iraqis. According to the security experts monitoring ISIS, it's a section of the Iraqi intelligence which laboured tremendously in sharing the hard actionable intelligence with the US agencies which eventually fructified yielding very positive results and killing of Baghdadi.

It would be equally interesting to note that, in the last video shot, analysed by the security analysts, Ismael was seen along with Idlib Commander, Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (who was later arrested). This contributed in conjoining inputs to get a larger picture pinpointing to the location of Baghdad's hiding.

Prima facie, it would appear that human intelligence played a vital and decisive role in the entire operation. The part played by technological intelligence like getting intercepts or resorting to snooping was probably peripheral and the significant and relevant disclosures made by Ismael tipped the balance in favour of the US Special Forces who then successfully carried out a flawless surgical operation. Others involved in the operation included the helicopter gunmen which provided fire support from above.

It's now believed that Trump's controversial decision to withdraw from Syria abandoning the Kurds had a solid reason behind it. America was seriously planning to launch the operation to get rid of Baghdadi and to accomplish this, it was imperative to take all parties into strict confidence. That's exactly why President Trump thanked Russia, Syria and Turkey for their valuable cooperation in the 'mission accomplished'.

More significantly, the lesson learnt is that if all the stakeholders are united, sinking their petty differences, it is always possible to address any terror menace. Baghdadi's killing reinforces this argument. However, conflicting inputs indicate that it was Trump's PR exercise ahead of his impeachment hype and upcoming elections that was marketed, linking Baghdadi killing for political gains. Even if we concede this counter-argument, the fact remains that the saner global community has heaved a sigh of relief after the killing of dreaded Baghdadi. A similar collaboration between all responsible countries who could embark upon to meet more serious challenges in uprooting global terror could make the world a much safer place to live in.

Having said this, it's critical to examine the likely implications that may ensue in the wake of Baghdadi's exit. According to Edmund Fitton Brown, who is the UN Coordinator of the ISIS monitoring team, his death is a significant blow to the cohesiveness and the future capability of the ISIS. Also, there doesn't seem to be any successor to Baghdadi who can take over the reins of the so-called Caliphate. It's important to remember that to head the Caliphate, as per the ISIS norms, one has to be from the Quarash tribe to which Prophet Mohammad is believed to have belonged to. Plus, it's mandatory to have a comprehensive knowledge of Islamic jurisprudence. In the absence of these prerequisites, it is likely that the ISIS will be in disarray in the coming days. It's now without direction and without any leader.

While dwelling on the emerging scenario, post-Baghdadi, it's imperative to factor the presence of Al Qaeda. ISIS under Baghdadi was a diehard opponent and adversary of Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda, which is presently active in Arab Peninsula focusing on African sub-Sahara and sporadic parts of the world, might attempt to occupy the space, selectively, possibly in Afghanistan and other susceptible countries where the scene is fragile and therefore vulnerable.

Now that Baghdadi is no more, his cadres may, by default, try to join the Al Qaeda in the absence of any possible refuge in their countries of origin although many must be on the run now with nothing in sight to secure their future. Radicalisation is also likely to suffer a setback, albeit temporarily, as ISIS cyber blitz will have taken a beating following Baghdadi's death. Indonesia, Thailand (its southern tracts) may remain adversely affected.

As regards India, the security agencies need to be on the lookout in places like Kashmir – because of the situation on the ground and Kerala – where radicalisation was perceived to be alarming. More importantly, ISIS demise may allow Turkey and Malaysia to intensify their efforts to occupy more space in the Islamic world to show that they are the champions of Islam in an attempt to push their agenda. Both these countries, of late, have been visibly anti-India and are ambitious to play a leadership role. Hence, India may be on their target.

All said and done, Osama bin Laden's elimination or Gaddafi's, haven't reduced the terror quotient in the world. New hate preachers and perverse fanatics continue to breed in the terror space so that the agenda of hate and religious violence remains alive. Time has come to uproot the menace once for all. Baghdadi's end is a good opportunity for the world powers to close their ranks and contain the terror threat conclusively in a more effective manner.

(Shantanu Mukharji is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Mauritius. Views expressed are strictly personal)