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Opinion

Bengal story not yet done

While BJP has reasons to rejoice for its performance in Bengal, writing off political workhorse, Mamata Banerjee, would be a fallacy

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has registered a phenomenal electoral performance in West Bengal in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. Their emphatic entry into the state was symptomatic of a political churn happening within the eastern state where BJP is a new entity. With assembly elections less than two years away, Bengal and the BJP's ambitions for it, is sure to assume centre-stage. However, the BJP's wins in Bengal must be viewed slightly differently from the other states.

It is indeed a feat for BJP to clock 303 seats on its own. Results also pointed to a complete rout of the Congress party. In the Modi wave, almost all the states have been painted in the saffron hues of BJP, save only Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Odisha, and West Bengal. BJP has found it difficult to breach the south and Naveen Patnaik's experience and efficient track record as chief minister proved to be an obstacle in Odisha. In Bengal however, the story unfolds differently.

On the face of it, the 18 seats that BJP won in Bengal point towards an increasing acceptance for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a state that has only seen a clutch of Congress leaders followed by over three decades of Left rule, and around eight years of the Trinamool Congress (born as an offshoot of Congress). However, a closer look at the electoral numbers presents a more balanced view of the political situation in the state.

TMC has increased its vote percentage by almost 5 per cent to 43.28 per cent; not a mean task considering the debilitating effect of 'TsuNamo' felt in the rest of India. But what aided BJP in Bengal was the consolidation of the opposition vote-share. The Left, irrespective of its hardline ideology, took a sharp Right with BJP improving its vote-share from 17 per cent in 2014 to 40.25 per cent. This increase has come at the cost of the decline of the Left Front that languishes at 7 per cent vote-share; CPI(M) at a dismal 3 per cent.

It would be naïve to think that Left has changed shades so quickly. A party that's dogged in its diktats and boasts of a disciplined work organisation perhaps shows the most pathetic picture at present. Its grassroots cadres who have known how to be in power for decades, were at a loose end, while the upper echelons that were once filled with Left sympathisers, found themselves bereft of privileges. The growing resentment and frustration of both classes for having their influence snatched away by a grassroots subaltern leader, Mamata Banerjee, eventually signalled the gains of BJP.

In the few years since Mamata Banerjee assumed her role as chief minister in 2011, several Left Front workers switched parties. In Bengal, it is a well-known fact that almost everyone, especially in rural areas, is associated with some party or the other. The political scenario in the state has often forced people to align with some party or the other. But the ones who could not transition into TMC were side-lined. This deep-seated anger and dangerous desire to bring down TMC, much like the former did to the Left Front, is at the crux of the BJP's victory in Bengal. 'An enemy's enemy is a friend' is the 'dharma' followed by Left Front voters; and not even a former chief minister and CPI(M) stalwart, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's impassioned appeal to them could have made a difference.

But to write-off Mamata Banerjee at this stage would be a fallacy. An astute politician, she is known to bounce back. Congress underestimated her when they felt she wouldn't leave the party-fold, Left underestimated her years of

street-fighting and confrontational politics. Today, her naysayers are underestimating her once again; writing her epitaph a bit too soon. With 22 Lok Sabha seats, TMC is still comfortably leading in 164 of the 295 assembly seats. And while the challenge is high, Mamata's sheer tenacity and ability to swing a situation in her favour must not be discredited. All in all, the next couple of years promise to be politically very exciting for the state.

(The writer is a journalist and media entrepreneur. She is also the author of 'Didi: The Untold Mamata Banerjee' published by Penguin India. The views expressed are strictly personal)

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