A policy imperative

India is all set to emerge as the world's most populous nation, sustaining 16.7 per cent of the world's population on 2.4 per cent of the world's surface area crossing population levels of China, by 2027. According to UN World Population Prospects 2019 Highlights, published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, India is set to surpass China and emerge as the world's most populous country by 2027. It also predicts that India is slated to add 273 million more to its population by the year 2050, pegging the population figures by then at 1.64 billion.

The population of the country has increased from 238 million in 1901 to 1,029 million in 2001. India continues to add about 26 million people per year. This is because more than 50 per cent of the population is in the reproductive age group. Such an ominous projection of population explosion has grave foreboding for demographic imbalance in the country. Besides, it has adverse implications for the prospects of balanced economic and social development.

At the time of the Indian Independence, the population was 350 million. By the mid-1970s, it nearly doubled to 660 million. Now, the population figure has furthermore than doubled to about 1.40 billion.

So, against such a backdrop, the importance of the Family Control Programme cannot be over-emphasized. In 2019, the Indian population was 1.37 billion, a close second to China, with a population of 1.43 billion. Now, India is set to surpass even China, in population levels.

This only serves to underscore the need for a new National Population Policy that would be uniformly applicable to all across the board and to people belonging to different religions and denominations. It should be implemented, without exception, if the demographic balance is not to be disturbed. In fact, the "demographic imbalance" is due to the "vast differences" in the growth rates of the population.

The National Population Policy of 2000 was envisaged to attain population stability by 2045 by bringing the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 2.1. This TFR target will have to be applied to all sections of society uniformly. Large chunks of people cannot be left out merely on grounds of differences.

First attempt

India launched a family planning programme in 1952. Though the birth rate started decreasing, it was accompanied by a sharp decrease in the death rate, leading to an overall increase in population. In 1976, the first National Population Policy was formulated which was neither discussed nor adopted. Later, the National Health Policy was then designed in 1983 which stressed the need for 'securing the small family norm, through voluntary efforts and moving towards the goal of population stabilization.

During the infamous Emergency in 1975-77, the Population Control Programme was all about compulsion. There were massive drives for compulsory sterilization through coercion. Such family planning operations were carried out with impunity. It brought the Population Control Programme, itself, to disrepute.

There was an all-time emphasis on the need for a separate National Population Policy. There was a National Population Policy in 2000 with an immediate objective to address the unmet needs for contraception, health care infrastructure and personnel, and to provide integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care. Further with the medium and long term objectives to bring TFR (Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a woman bears over her lifetime) to replacement levels by 2010 and targeted a stable population by 2045.

Indicators of population

India's TFR was around 6.1 in 1961 and an average woman bore over six children during her lifetime. Over the years, there has been a noticeable decrease in this figure. According to the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS III, 2005-06), it is 2.7. TFR is almost one child higher in rural areas (3.0) than in urban areas (2.1). The TFR varies widely across states. The states of Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Sikkim and Tamil Nadu have reached a TFR of 2.1 or less. TFR is still high in UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Orissa, Uttaranchal, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, where over 40 per cent of the population exists.

In 1961, the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), deaths of infants per 1000 live births was 115. Currently, the country's average is lower at 57, with the state having the lowest at 15 in Kerala and the highest at 73 in Uttar Pradesh.

Another reason to consider is the early marriages, almost 43 per cent of married women aged 20-24 were married before the age of 18 and its as high as 68 per cent in Bihar. There are empirical correlations that suggest that high IMR leads to a greater desire for children. Early marriages increase the likelihood of more children and also affects the woman's health. As the education level increases in women, fertility declines. There are other socio-economic reasons for people to have a desire for larger families particularly preference for a male child also leads to higher birth rates.

Later, National Population Policy 2000 focused on population stabilization. Following it, the government enacted the Constitution (84th Amendment) Act, 2002. The National Commission on Population which was formed in the year 2000 should relook its initiatives and build up a strategy to spend the stabilization fund in penetrating the message at the grassroots which is having diverse disparities.

Now, an incentivization plan should be worked out, to ensure the willing participation of people in the Population Control Programme. Awareness generation is essential to make people understand and realize that the Family Control Programme is ultimately in their own enlightened self-interest. Once such realization dawns on them, then they willingly become partners in the Family Control Programme. Incentivization has to be at the heart of the National Population Policy.

This includes prompting Government employees to go in for voluntary sterilization after two children, with incentives like promotions and increments, besides education for their children. There is also a disincentive to be considered, like a bar on applying for Government jobs, besides the bar on receiving any kind of Government subsidy, if the two-child norm is not adhered to.

The Population Control Programme has to be pursued as a voluntary programme. It has to be implemented more through persuasion and not through coercion. Population control has to be linked to education and health. It is only when the family is small and manageable that attention can be paid not only to the education of the children but also to the nutritional requirements of the children and the mother.

In the advanced and affluent countries, population control and economic development are unrelated, because they have adequate resources at their command. In a developing country, where poverty is still prevalent, this issue cannot be left to individual motivation. So, it is very important to chalk out very well-formulated campaigns, to drive home the urgency of the Population Control Programme.

With a large population, the pressure and stress on resources will increase, and there will be a need for careful preparation of a plan for balanced and sustainable development. Poverty is an important problem in developing countries in the world today due to illiteracy, unemployment, food security, nutrition and health problems. Achieving development that combines environmental protection with population pressure is the social responsibility of every human being along with the government today.

The population stabilisation should be at a consistent level with the requirements of sustainable economic growth, social development, and environmental protection.

Views expressed are personal