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India at the crossroads

Kiran Karnik’s Decisive Decade is a stirring and thoughtful examination of India’s position, ten years from now, on nine different parameters — offering, at the same time, simple and practical solutions

India at the crossroads
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When the previous century was drawing to a close, there was a widespread optimism that the 21st century will belong to Asia — with both China and India playing a dominant role. The balance of economic power and influence was perceived to be substantially tilting towards the East.

This optimism got legitimacy and a boost when the Goldman Sachs report, 'Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050', came out in 2003. The report predicted that over the next 50 years the collective economic size of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) together could be larger than the G6 in USD terms. By 2025, the economies of the said nations were expected to account for over half the size of the G6.

The report made headlines globally. India's demographic profile was seen paying dividends for the first time. A potential 'triple play' opportunity for growth was conceived — in the domestic market; in the world economy through migration; and through the rise of the outsourcing industry.

The report came against the background of India opening up its economy in the 1990s, and the GDP registering an average of over six per cent growth since then. We were no longer perceived a nation of 'missed opportunities'.

What then explains the current mood, with many asking the question whether India can achieve robust and sustainable growth from now for a decade?

It is in this context that the new book by Padmashri Kiran Karnik, 'DECISIVE DECADE: INDIA 2030 — Gazelle or Hippo', assumes great significance. The book contains concrete and thoughtful proposals aimed at creating a shared national vision that encompasses balanced economic prosperity, political empowerment and respect for the rule of law.

Kiran — who prefers to describe himself as a 'public un-intellectual' — examines nine crucial areas that, in his opinion, are the major determinants of the 'state of the nation' in 2030: democracy and politics, security, health, education, economy, demography, society, jobs and livelihoods, and technology.

To him, "such an exercise is useful because it stirs the thought, discussion and debate around not just where the country may be in 2030, but also on where one would like to be; not only on likely futures but also on desirable futures."

Kiran senses a global shift away from an excessive focus on GDP to reducing inequality, on elimination of poverty and hunger, of investment in infrastructure and services which facilitate the ease of living, on quality jobs and livelihoods and on providing social security, health, education and housing to all.

In the chapter 'Democracy and Politics: Ensuring Justice and Freedom', the author, while praising the Election Commission for the conduct of elections in the country, expresses concern over the role of money power and criminalization of politics, apart from defections and shifting loyalties that have become more rampant lately. However, being an optimist, he foresees a "transition, a movement away from the hate-filled, decisive, communal and intolerant political scenario seen in the latter half of the last decade.'

The dilemma inherent in a democratic polity, that continues to remain unresolved, is that long-term perspectives do not come naturally to democratic politicians, who must focus on winning elections in the short term.

Taking a non-academic approach, Kiran conceives that the infantryman of the future will have the sight, hearing, body armor, physical capability and armament greatly enhanced by technology. In fact, the future infantry will no longer be a 'man' or (woman) but a robot. Wars may be more like video games, but with consequences, damages and deaths in the real world, he writes.

Kiran makes a bold assertion that, by 2030, there will be no direct military confrontation with any of our neighbors but, at the same time, suggests that terrorism including cyber-attacks and other untraceable sources is likely to become India's biggest security concern in 2030.

The author remains silent on whether damage caused by these newer tools of terrorism has the potential to trigger a localized conflict, if not a full-fledged war?

With regards to health, Kiran makes a useful suggestion by emphasizing on behavioral science as a tool. He writes that health is crucially dependent on behavior — be it hand-washing, regular exercise, taking medicines as prescribed, or using the toilet instead of defecating in the open. This has to begin with awareness and information, overcoming traditional beliefs and customs. Kiran cites a research study on the relationship between happiness and GDP — a one year increase in longevity has the same effect on national happiness as a 4.3 per cent increase in GDP.

In wake of the long and rich experience that Kiran holds in the use of technology in the social sector, it is not surprising that the chapter on technology, 'Every Breath You Take: Pervasive Tech' is most illuminating. From discussing the switchover to electric vehicles to telemedicine to the growing trend and popularity of online education, Kiran makes practical suggestions on how to access the latest technology.

He writes: "One way of doing so is by acquiring technology from abroad, and the best route may be the acquisition of companies that have developed it (the additional advantage being that it comes along with experts who did so, opening the possibility of continuous upgrades and new development)."

Published by Rupa, the book brings lots of understanding and clarity to the challenges facing the country. He expands the unique 3D advantage India has prided itself on — demography, diversity and democracy. Kiran says that the current decade provides the opportunity of another special 3D combination — democracy, decentralization and devolution. 'Together, these can make India a winner.'

Drawing an analogy from the animal world, Kiran argues that by 2030, 'India could be viewed as a gazelle: sleek, agile, fast-moving and likeable; or it would end up like a hippopotamus: large, but bulky, slow-moving and the worse, aggressive.'

He goes beyond 2030, and hopes for a better future of India in 2050: as the happiest country 100 years after its birth as a republic.

Views expressed are personal

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