Millennium Post

Who’s afraid of AAP?

Delhi is witnessing the same scene as that of Bihar after February 2005 Assembly Elections. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is not ready to shake hands with any for facilitating the government formation. Though it was the Congress that got defeated but it is the BJP that looks most dejected and anxious after the announcement of the result.

It has improved its tally in the Assembly so far as the number of seats is concerned, but the emergence of AAP as a big force decimating the Congress has made them nervous.

The spectacular win of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh have given ample reasons for the BJP leaders to celebrate but the emergence of AAP has had a demoralising effect on the party workers. The BJP is not worried as it could not form its government in Delhi. The reason is the impact of this election in the next Lok Sabha elections.

Under the leadership of Narendra Modi, the BJP is taking their win in the next Union government for granted. The Congress is facing slide all over the country and in the Hindi heartland of UP, Bihar and Jharkhand it has been pushed to margin. The regional leaders of these three Hindi states have also lost their clout. Lalu Yadav is in jail and his RJD is facing leadership crisis. Nitish Kumar was the creation of BJP and after projecting Narendra Modi as its PM candidate, BJP does not need Nitish to garner a large chunk of OBCs votes. Bereft of BJP’s company, Nitish is finding himself in wilderness. In Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav is facing the wrath of his own caste men and OBCs because of his failure to ensure quota in all phases of UPPSC examinations. The nepotism of Mulayam is also making him unpopular among his own caste men.

What suites most in UP for BJP is the deteriorating communal scene. After the formation of Akhilesh government in 2012, over 100 incidents of communal violence and tension have been witnessed in UP and people belonging to both major communities have died. This scene has made BJP’s task easy. It has got benefitted by the communal riots of Mujaffarnagar as well, which has helped the BJP to make inroads into Jat support base of Ajit Singh. Rajnath Singh is from UP itself. And the most potent tool in the hands of Rajnath Singh is the OBC background of his Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. Though, Modi himself does not want to talk of his caste background, but other leaders like Rajnath Singh are selling his caste background to the OBCs, the numerically largest group of UP. Now Kalyan Singh is also back in BJP. Hence BJP leaders were dreaming of sweeping UP in next Lok Sabha election along with Bihar and Jharkhand. These three states send 134 MPs in Lok Sabha and BJP was claiming to get over 100 seats from these three states alone.

But the emergence of AAP in national capital has made the same BJP leaders sleepless. The reason is simple. Over half of Delhi population now has Bihar, Jharkhand and UP origin. Their preference for AAP signals their desire to come out of caste and communal consideration. A large chunk of Delhites have chosen to vote for a party, which talks of high morality in politics and does not command money power. Without spending too much, AAP candidates emerged victorious in many seats and gave tough fight to their rivals in other.

With a sound performance in Delhi, AAP is in a position to put candidates in all states of Northern India, where Anna movement was very strong. BJP was hoping on anti Congress anti regional parties votes, but AAP is a new player now. There is no reason to believe that Delhi voters are exception and AAP candidates will not get votes in other places of India. It is true that Anna movement in Delhi was the strongest in India and AAP got advantage of it. In fact, during election campaign, this writer has seen strong undercurrent for AAP. Since, it was a new party talking of high morality in politics, its supporters had firm commitment to vote for it, whether it won or lost. Firms Muslim support saved the Congress from getting totally eclipsed. Four of 8 of its MLAs are Muslim and the rest win because they got undivided support of Muslim voters. In fact, the undercurrent of support of AAP was so strong that, it could have got majority on its own, but the undercurrent was countered by Modi wave.


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