A statistical calculation on the basis of the recent elections- Assembly 2011, Panchayat 2013 Parliament elections 2014, clearly shows that TMC government led by Mamata would get around 210 to 215 seats, said professor Amiya Chaudhuri, well known psephologist on Thursday.
He said on finer points based on psychological twists here and there, voters’ swing among BJP and the dissatisfaction in both Congress and Left Front, it can easily be said that even in the worst case scenario TMC would not get a single seat below 185. He maintained that if the voters are not befuddled by the conspiracy of the ABP group and the CPI(M)’s whispering campaign coupled with lectures full of misinformation and deliberate lies by Rahul Gandhi, Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and Sitaram Yechuri, the TMC would come back with more or less 200 seats.
He said some media group and corporate house who are dominated by the Left Front have become over ambitious and when they failed to influence Mamata Banerjee, they are now hell bent to teach a lesson to her. It seems it would backfire and the Opposition campaigners would be thrown out by the conscious voters of West Bengal, he maintained.
In the 2016 Assembly election, West Bengal is facing a new trend not found during the last many years. In 2011 the CPM’s organisational router was almost complete. Since then it tried hard to find its lost ground but in vain.
By this time the Indian National Congress tried to float on anything to survive. Leaving the coalition with TMC, it was looking for new pastures and found one in CPI(M). It is just the marriage of convenience for both. It certainly got impetus from a big media house which indirectly and sometimes directly by money power pulls the string.