Millennium Post

Swine flu deaths cross 1,800, cases may dip in next 2 weeks

According to the Health Ministry data, 1,809 persons have perished due to the disease while the number of those affected across various states was 30,766.

Dr Randeep Guleria, head of Pulmonary Medicine Department at AIIMS, said that swine flu cases will subside in the next 2-3 weeks because of soaring mercury. "Over the last few days, though the temperature has been fluctuating due to unseasonal rains, but on an average it has shown an upward trend, because of which cases are on decline.

Even in OPD we are seeing less patients.

"If we see the government of India figures of the last few weeks, then we will see that there is already a decline in number of H1N1 cases and mortality. It is quite likely that they will subside more in the next 2-3 weeks," Guleria said.

He said swine flu cases tend to rise during winter and monsoon months and also when humidity levels are high. Other doctors pointed out that although there has not been any "dramatic" decrease, they hoped that the cases will decrease with the rise in temperature.

"Even in OPDs these days most cases are of seasonal flu, which will hopefully decrease with the rise in temperature," said Dr Sidharth Ramji, medical superintendent, Lok Nayak Hospital.

People in 35 age bracket most vulnerable to swine flu

People in the age group of 30-45 years have been the worst affected by swine flu with most number of deaths, 34 per cent of the toll, taking place in this age bracket. According to the Union Health Ministry, 34 per cent of the 723 deaths that were analysed have occurred in the age group 30-45 years, followed closely by those in the 45-60 bracket (32 per cent).

The Health Ministry has conducted an age and sex wise analysis of influenza A (H1N1) deaths. It has also analysed data to find out the most prevalent weeks, deaths due to co-morbid conditions and many other such aspects. The analysis shows 17 pc of deaths occurred in the age group of 18-30 years while 12 pc of deaths were in the 60 and above age category.

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