Escaping the vortex

On September 18, the UN Secretary General António Guterres, while addressing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Summit 2023, organised on the side-lines of the annual UN General Assembly (UNGA) meeting, reminded the global community that persistent world hunger was “a shocking stain on humanity and epic human rights violation.” The SDG summit adopted a political declaration which states that “eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions, including extreme poverty, is the greatest global challenge and an indispensable requirement of sustainable development.” The adoption of the 10-page document, by the Heads of State and Government and high representatives gathering at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, came at a critical juncture as global crises — including armed conflict, adverse climate impacts and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic — threaten the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, an UN Press release claims.

It may be recalled that the SDGs were first adopted in 2015 and include 17 goals, ranging from eradication of poverty (SDG1), hunger (SDG 2), and inequalities in social and economic status to creating better jobs and addressing the climate crisis by 2030. Commenting on the progress made toward achieving these goals, the UN Secretary General underlined that only 15 per cent of all SDG targets were on track and the world was likely to miss most of the targets, with some even going into reverse.

According to UN estimates, nearly 575 million people will still be poor and over 600 million will be facing extreme hunger by 2030 at the current pace of fulfilment of the SDGs. Noting that at least 1.2 billion people across the world were still living in poverty in 2022, and over 680 million were facing hunger, UNGA President Francis reiterated that developing countries needed an annual USD 500 billion stimulus to efficiently work on the SDGs. The SDG Summit declaration highlighted that the transfer of funds to developing countries, restructuring of debt, and greater adherence to multilateral norms and regulations, without resorting to hegemonic practices, are essential preconditions for the achievement of the SDG targets.

State of food insecurity

Food security, as defined by the United Nations’ Committee on World Food Security, means that all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life.

The State of Food Insecurity and Nutrition in the World 2023 (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO) highlights the state of global hunger and food insecurity and the challenges and opportunities that urbanisation presents in the context of agri-food systems. The report says:

* Global hunger, measured according to prevalence of undernourishment, remained relatively unchanged from 2021 to 2022 but is still significantly higher than before the pandemic. Approximately 9.2 per cent of the world’s population faced hunger in 2022, compared with 7.9 per cent in 2019. Between 691 million and 783 million people experienced hunger in 2022, 122 million more than in 2019.

* Moderate or severe food insecurity affected 29.6 per cent of the global population (2.4 billion people) in 2022, with 11.3 per cent being severely food insecure. Food insecurity disproportionately affects women and people in rural areas. The gender gap in food insecurity narrowed slightly in 2022. More than 3.1 billion people worldwide (42 per cent) were unable to afford a healthy diet in 2021 (134 million more than in 2019).

* Of children under 5 years old, 22.3 per cent were stunted, 6.8 per cent were wasted, and 5.6 per cent were overweight in 2022.

* In 2021, 74 per cent of the Indians could not afford a healthy diet.

On July 17, 2023, Russia announced that it would not renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). The initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye, had allowed Ukraine to resume its grain and oilseed exports after Russia’s invasion. Since it was signed in July 2022, the BSGI has facilitated the export of 33 tonnes of grain and oilseeds, with 57 per cent of these exports reaching developing countries and nations traditionally reliant on Ukraine’s agricultural products. Even before Russia’s withdrawal from the BSGI, shipments had been declining. In May 2023, only 1.3 tonnes was exported, the lowest since the deal’s inception and no new vessels had been registered under the initiative since the end of June. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) had raised concerns about future trade dynamics and regional stability after termination of the agreement, compounded by Russia’s warnings about shipping safety in the north-western Black Sea.

The food grain supply got further reduced when on July 19, the Government of India amended its export policy on non-basmati white rice from “Free with export duty of 20 per cent,” which it had imposed in September 2022, to “Prohibited,” with immediate effect. As India is the world’s dominant rice exporter (accounting for nearly 40 per cent of the global rice market), this decision has caused considerable increases in world prices and induced price volatility. The export ban comes at a time of heightened global concerns about international global food prices following Russia’s exit from the BSGI.

The World Economic Forum’s 2023 Global Risks Report ranked a looming food supply crisis as one of the top four threats facing the world, predicting that “the lagged effect of a price spike in fertiliser” would hit food production across the world in 2023.

The 11th Global Food Security Index (GFSI) 2022 shows a worsening in the global food environment for the third year, threatening food security. According to the report, significant progress was made in global food security from 2012 to 2015, with the overall GFSI score increasing by 6 per cent. However, structural challenges have caused the growth of the global food system to slow down. The past 3 years witnessed a reversal in the global trend of the overall food security environment.

GFSI 2022 also highlighted that the food security gap between developed and developing countries is widening. In 2022, eight of the top 10 performing countries were in Europe, with Finland topping the list with a score of 83.7. The non-European countries in the top 10 list were Japan and Canada. War ravaged Syria comes last among the 113 countries with a score of 36.3. India and Algeria have jointly ranked 68th with a score of 58.9. The difference between the top-performing countries and countries at the lower rank has been widening since 2019, revealing the inequity in the global food system, reported Economist.

Challenges before India

In 2018, India’s GFSI score was 59.3 higher than its GFSI score in 2022. It is reported that the stocks of rice and wheat held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) on August 22, 2023 were at their lowest since 2017, raising concerns about inflation. However, experts believe that there is no immediate threat to food security as the stocks are still higher than required norms. The government aims to procure 521 lakh metric tonnes of rice this year, which is higher than last year’s 495 lakh metric tonnes. Of the total food grain stock with the FCI on August 22, 242.96 lakh metric tonnes was rice and 280.39 lakh metric tonnes was wheat, reports Economic Times.

Though the Union government has taken few important measures, like prohibiting export of wheat and non-basmati white rice, and open market sale of rice and wheat, to mitigate rising food price, data reveals that retail prices for wheat and rice have surged roughly 7 per cent and 11.3 per cent, respectively, from July 2022 to July 2023, reports LiveMint. Unless food inflation is tamed, food insecurity will rise further. On August 9, the Union government decided to additionally sell 50 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) of wheat and 25 LMT of rice through the Open Market Sales Scheme (OMSS) from the Food Corporation of India stocks, with a hope that the measure will ensure adequate domestic availability and check the prices of rice and wheat, reports The Hindu.

Another major challenge faced by the Indian food sector is the near stagnation of yield of wheat per hectares. In 2022, the estimated yield of wheat in India was approximately 3.5 thousand kilograms per hectare, and the yield of rice across India was estimated to be approximately 2.8 thousand kilograms per hectare, reports Statista. Though a consistent increase in the yield of rice was noted since fiscal year 1991, except a fall in 2021, compared to India, paddy rice yield for

Thailand, Vietnam, China are higher. Unless India succeeds in improving yields of its staple gains-rice and wheat, India may end up importing food grains, as has been observed in the Philippines where the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), which was the flag bearer of the green revolution, is situated. See the box for details.

India’s over dependence on Russian chemical fertiliser may pose a serious threat to food production in coming months. India is the world’s second-largest consumer of fertilisers. Amid sanctions, Russia becomes India’s top di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) fertiliser supplier. Imports were made at a significant discount to international prices, reported The Indian Express. Russia, for the first time, became the biggest fertiliser supplier to India in the first half of the 2022-23 fiscal year by offering discounts over prevailing global prices, cornering more than a fifth of the market share, government and industry sources said. India’s fertiliser imports from Russia surged 371 per cent to a record 2.15 million tonnes in the first six months of 2022-23. In value terms, India’s imports during the period spiked 765 per cent to USD 1.6 billion. In the fiscal year 2021-22, India imported 1.26 million tonnes from Russia, reports Business Today. But in the 1st week of September, 2023, Russian companies have ceased offering fertiliser to India at discounted prices due to tightening global supplies, reports Reuters. India’s fertiliser imports from Russia surged 246 per cent to a record 4.35 million metric tons in the 2022-23 financial year as suppliers gave discounts to the global market price for DAP, urea and NPK fertilisers. Food production is likely to be severely impacted unless fertiliser supplies at a discounted price is ensured.

Observations

The existence of a huge number of hungry stomachs across the world and looming global food insecurity suggest the failure of much-hyped corporate farming which was initiated in the name of ‘Green revolution’, during the 1960s of the last century, by the petroleum and chemical majors led by Rockefeller Foundation.

To convert the current crisis into an opportunity, a new corporate farming lobby, headed by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Bayer Monsanto and Syngenta, has floated a new slogan: ‘from green to evergreen revolution’. They are suggesting now to replace hybrid seeds, introduced during the green revolution, with genetically modified (GM) seeds. Nevertheless, the food and environment activists and concerned citizens are alarmed due to numerous negative impacts on the life and livelihood of the farmers and on the agricultural ecosystem due to uncontrolled introduction of GM seeds.

In addition to threats from the GM lobby, the World Trade Organisation (WTO)-administered agricultural trade has also aggravated food insecurity of developing countries like the Philippines. The Philippines’ experience may be contemplated as a warning to the developing south, including India.

A sustainable alternative to this corporate farming, which has nearly destroyed the millions of years’ biodiversity of nature, is to revive the traditional organic farming practice. However, it’s a challenging task and should be planned in a phased manner. To begin with, 15-20 per cent farm lands may be earmarked for this. As unrestrained uses of chemical fertiliser and pesticides have made the soil barren and

toxic, getting optimum output in organic farming may take time. But there is no other viable alternative before the farmers and food policymakers.

In India, most of the government support to farmers, extended as a minimum support price (MSP), ultimately benefits fertiliser, pesticide and seed companies. However, over the years, productivity has declined/stagnated and farming costs increased. The farmers have fallen into the vicious cycle of corporate exploitation — declining output-more fertilizer-more water-more pesticide-land becoming more toxic-further decline in output-more fertiliser to boost yield.

India needs to modify its farm subsidies to break this vicious cycle of declining output. To discourage chemical farming, the Indian government may link its farm subsidy programme to the agriculture practices followed by the farmers. For example, a farmer who practices organic farming, mostly uses green (rain) water than blue (underground) water and cultivates diversified crops, should get more government support than the other farmers who practice chemical-based farming processes. This will motivate the farmers to return to the sustainable agricultural practice and break the vicious cycle of corporate exploitation which has made them totally vulnerable to market mechanisms controlled by a few global corporations.

The Philippines: a rice exporter turns into a major importer

Within a decade of lifting quota restrictions, the country which was nearly self-reliant on its staple food rice, became vulnerable to global market mechanisms and turned into a major importer of rice. The Philippines was a rice exporter in the 1970s to its neighbouring countries.

The Uruguay Round of Agreement on Agriculture (AOA) special treatment clause (Annex 5), had allowed the Philippines to maintain an import quota on rice, under certain conditions. In 2006, the Philippines negotiated the continuation of this regime until 30 June 2012.

In February 2019, President Duterte signed the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL). The law replaced rice import QRs with tariffs. Tariffication or the switch from quantitative import restriction to tariff only is generally considered as a move towards trade liberalisation.

In 2020, rice farmers’ net income per hectare decreased by 30.7 per cent in the dry season, by 37.5 per cent in the wet season, and by 35 per cent on average as compared to figures in 2018. This translated to substantially lower profitability ratio for the farmers.

In 2021, the total volume of rice imported to the Philippines amounted to around 2.98 million metric tonnes. In 2016, the corresponding figure was 0.609 million metric tonnes. In its latest world trade report, the USDA forecasts Philippine rice imports for 2023-24 to reach 3.8 million metric tonnes; the world’s largest, surpassing the revised import projection of 3.5 million tonnes for perennial top buyer China.

Views expressed are personal