Charting new routes?

Since May 2023, the Indian state of Manipur, which shares a 398-km border with Myanmar, has been in flames. After the ethnic violence erupted on May 3, within 24 hours the authorities issued “shoot-at-sight” orders and called military reinforcement to quell the violence that opened a new fault line in the state with a chequered history of ethnic violence. Since then, more than 180 people have been killed, hundreds of citizens got wounded, women got raped, and thousands have become homeless.

In Manipur, the last violence of this scale occurred in 1992, when there were clashes between the NSCN (IM), representing Naga interests, and the Kukis in Manipur’s Moreh town, located on the Indo-Myanmar border. Moreh is a trade centre infamous for smuggling — including drugs, Burmese teak and arms. It quickly turned into ethnic clashes between the two main tribal communities of Manipur and spread across the state like wildfire. Over 100 Kukis were believed to have been killed and over a lakh were displaced from hundreds of villages that were razed to the ground.

The recent ethnic violence has broken out between the Hindu Meiteis, who customarily fall under the scheduled caste (SC) and other backward class (OBC) categories, and tribes — mostly Kuki and Naga who usually live in hills and make up to 40 per cent of the Manipur population. These tribes are mostly Christians. The Meiteis make up 53 per cent of the population and live in the Imphal Valley. The immediate cause of the current conflict was the demonstrations by tribal groups against any move to grant the majority Meiteis the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, which the residents of the hills have.

It is claimed that Manipur has a huge quantity of nickel, copper and Platinum Group Elements (PGE)/Platinum Group Metals apart from Malachite, Azurite and Magnetite. This lies under the earth strata of the hills which has been the home to the tribes for thousands of years. Once Meitei gain the ST status, they can easily occupy the hill estates. This then can be sold to the mining companies at huge profits. This could have become very lucrative for the Meities who live in the valley. Of course, Kuki and other tribal communities did not like this.

Meanwhile, 10 tribal MLAs from various parties, including five from the BJP, indirectly demanded a separate state for the Kuki tribes, leading to an ethnic division of the state, reported Morung Express. The conflict between the hills and the valley population in Manipur has several dimensions. The Nagas are demanding a greater Nagalim carved out of territories from Nagaland, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Manipur, which includes a large portion of the Kuki-inhabited areas of Manipur. The Kukis are also demanding a separate Kukiland, a state within the state of Manipur, which includes territories of the proposed Greater Nagalim. Since the 2000s, the Kukis have been demanding a separate Kukiland carved out of the five hill districts — Churachandpur, Chandel, Senapati, Tamenglong, and Ukhrul, reports MillenniumPost.

Blames on Myanmar

The Union Home Minister has blamed the unrest in Myanmar for the ethnic conflict in Manipur and the adjoining North-eastern states. Shah claimed that the influx of Kukis from Myanmar has created a sense of insecurity among the Meiteis of Manipur. As per a report by Reuters, nearly 36,000 military and para military forces have been deployed on the Manipur border.

The Chin state, one of the most insurgent-prone states of Myanmar, shares its boundary with Mizoram and Manipur. The Chins are of Sino-Tibetan origin and inhabit a mountain chain that roughly covers western Myanmar through to Mizoram in north-east India (where they are related to the Mizos, Kuki and others) and small parts of Bangladesh. A mountain people by tradition, around 80 per cent of the Chin are Christians. The Chin languages belong to the Kuki-Chin subgroup of the Kuki-Naga group of the Tibeto-Burman family of languages. A military coup in Feb 2021 in Myanmar made thousands of Chin refugees flock into the Northeastern states of Mizoram and Manipur. Various reports suggest the number of Chin refugees living in Manipur to be between 4,000 and 10000. These people are mostly living in Churachandpur, Chandel, and Kangpokpi districts of Kuki-inhabited areas of Manipur, reports MillenniumPost.

Four north-eastern states — Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram — share an international border with Myanmar which is considered as the gateway to East Asia. Interestingly, it is obligatory for Indian citizens from outside these states to obtain a permit called Inner Line Permit (ILP) which is an official travel document issued by the state government concerned to allow inward travel of an Indian citizen into a protected area for a limited period.

It may be recalled that the Meitei-Kuki ethnic violence overlapped with the inauguration of the Kolkata-Sittwe cargo service under the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP). On May 4, the Indian Minister of State for Ports, Shipping and Waterways, flagged off a vessel from Kolkata Port. On May 9, India and Myanmar inaugurated the Sittwe Port (former Akyab) in Rakhine State, marking a significant milestone in enhancing bilateral and regional trade.

Sittwe Port connects Paletwa, located in Chin state of Myanmar, through an inland waterway and then from Paletwa to Zorinpui in Mizoram through a road component. Once fully operationalised, the waterway and road components of KMTTP will link the East coast of India to the North-eastern states through the Sittwe port. As per a report by MillenniumPost, the port’s location makes it strategically important for India’s Act East Policy, which aims to strengthen ties with the Asia-Pacific region.

Strategically important Moreh

The Indo-Myanmar border town Moreh plays an important strategic role in the Asian Highway (AH) project, popularly known as the Trans-Asian Highway. It is a cooperative project among countries in Asia and Europe, supported by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (UNESCAP), to improve the highway systems in Asia. AH1 is the longest route of the AH network running 20,557 km from Tokyo via South Korea, China, South-East Asia, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran to the border between Turkey and Bulgaria where it joins with European route E80. In India, the AH1 extends along Moreh-Imphal-Kohima-Dimapur; Dimapur-Nagaon; Nagaon-Numaligarh-Jorabat; Jorabat-Shillong-Dawki; Petrapole-Barasat; Barasat-Kolkata; Kolkata-Durgapur-Barhi-Kanpur-Agra-New Delhi, and New Delhi-Attari.

The Asian Highway Network is a part of the Asian Land Transport Infrastructure Development (ALTID) project, being supported by the UNESCAP. The Asian Highway project was initiated in 1959. For a decade from 1960 to 1970, the first phase of the project progressed well. The work slowed down with the suspension of financial assistance in 1975. The project again gained momentum in the 1980s and 1990s with new political and economic developments. It was made part of the ALTID programme in 1992. The Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) of the project was adopted at a meeting held in Bangkok in November 2003. As many as 23 countries signed the IGA treaty during the 60th session of the ESCAP commission held in Shanghai in April 2004. The number of participating countries increased to 28 in 2007 and to 32 in 2008.

In addition to the Asian Highway (AH), the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) network is also promoted by the UNESCAP. The TAR is a 17,500-km long railway line passing through 28 member countries and has been described by UNESCAP as “Yesterday’s Silk Road”.

This east-west rail corridor that traverses through India, originates at the easternmost part in Istanbul in Turkey and will pass through Iran right till the Afghanistan border from where the missing link will be constructed to connect Islamabad. The existing tracks from Islamabad to New Delhi will be a part of the network, which travels eastwards to Kolkata and Dhaka. As per the original plan, the rail link would enter Myanmar via Imphal using the Moreh-Tamu route.

Thus, for both the ambitious Asian Highway which connects Japan and Istanbul and for Trans Asian Railway (TAR) which connects Istanbul and Thailand, Moreh is the strategic point linking India with East Asia. Incidentally, Moreh is a Kuki town with a sizable number of Tamils and other Indians, and it is one of the fastest growing towns in Manipur. Dominant Hindu Meities want to take control of this strategic town by evicting Kukis.

Trans Asian Highways vs Belt and Road Initiative

The AH and TAR projects have almost got marginalised after China launched its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. This year marks the tenth year of China’s USD 1.4-trillion BRI, Xi Jinping’s ambitious project to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe, a supposed ‘21st century silk road.’ Except for India and Bhutan, all South Asian countries are a signatory to the BRI at present.

Over the course of a decade, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has spread to Africa, Oceania and Latin America, significantly strengthening the global economic and political influence of the People’s Republic of China. The project currently covers 151 countries (with the potential to grow) and is considered a central pillar of Xi’s foreign policy that seeks to ensure China’s global dominance and make the 21st century China’s century, reports Eurasian Times.

‘New silk route’ bypassing India

As India has refused to join the BRI, China has established alternative routes bypassing India. Here is a brief outline of how China is establishing its new silk route using India’s neighbours.

Myanmar:

In 2020, the Chinese President Xi strongly reaffirmed China’s commitment to revive the stalled multibillion-dollar BRI projects in Myanmar by signing 33 new Memoranda of Understanding.

The key BRI projects in Myanmar include a 2,800-kilometer China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline running from Kyaukpyu to Kunming, Southwest China’s Yunnan, and a deep-water port at Kyaukpyu in the Bay of Bengal. The pipeline transports 6 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 10 million tonnes of crude annually. A Chinese firm is constructing a 1,500-square-kilometer new city outside Yangon, as well as highway projects connecting key Myanmar cities, reports Global Times.

China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co (CREEC) recently launched a survey for the Muse-Mandalay-Kyaukphyu railway line, part of the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and the larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region, reports Economic Times.

Bangladesh:

In 2016, China signed 26 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with Dhaka, formally making Bangladesh a part of its premier transnational infrastructure programme, the BRI. Today, 240 Chinese companies dominate all major sectors of the Bangladesh economy. From railroads, energy generation, and power transmission to transport infrastructure, digitisation, e-governance, renewable energy and meeting Bangladesh’s emission reduction targets of 2041, China has massively invested in major transport and energy projects of Bangladesh, reports Observer Research Foundation.

In 1918, the British government proposed a railway network to link Chittagong and Mandalay, via Sittwe, then known as Akyab. It was to connect with a line linking Mandalay with Kunming in China’s Yunnan Province via Bhamo, but the project never went ahead. The shelved project is now getting serious attention.

Nepal:

On August 10, 2022, China announced that within a year it will start a feasibility study for the ambitious Tibet-Nepal Railway project. The proposed 170-kilometre railway, part of the Belt and Road Initiative, will link Kerung in southern Tibet to Nepal’s capital Kathmandu, entering Nepal in Rasuwa district. The plan is to eventually extend the railway to India, reports Scroll.

Aksai Chin and Pakistan:

It is reported that China will soon begin construction on an ambitious new railway line connecting Xinjiang and Tibet that will run close to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and through the disputed Aksai Chin region. China also plans to build border railway lines up to Gyirong, the land port on the Nepal-Tibet border, and to Yadong County in the Chumbi valley, which borders India’s Sikkim as well as Bhutan, reports The Hindu.

Pakistan joined the BRI in 2013. Even before its joining, the talks of establishing an economic corridor had been going on between Islamabad and Beijing. In 2013, the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was announced and received a further boost in 2015 with Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan. The USD 62-billion corridor project aims to link the Gwadar port in south-western Pakistan with Kashgar in northeastern China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, measuring around 3,000 km, highlighting energy, transport, and industrial cooperation.

Pakistan and China, on July 31, 2023, signed six important documents to expand and expedite cooperation under the ambitious multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, further cementing the all-weather strategic relations between the countries, reports The Hindu.

Observations

Though India has not participated in the BRI, China is in the process of reviving its silk route bypassing India. China has obtained access to the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea through Myanmar and Pakistan. BRI projects in Bangladesh and Nepal have helped China in strengthening its connectivity.

Apparently, India is now trying desperately to revive the dormant Asian Highway and Trans Asian Railway projects. Suddenly, Moreh — the border town of Manipur — has become strategically very important. It appears that the Union government wants to retain control of border regions of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). This could be the primary reason why the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir has been trifurcated and converted into three Union Territories. Same may be repeated in Manipur. Three Meity Naga and Kuki dominated territories would be formed along the CMEC. Unfortunately, Manipur exists at the crossroads of two major international trade routes.

If the same trend is followed, the Union government’s next target would be north Bengal where the most strategic “Chicken’s Neck” — which connects north-eastern states, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sikkim with mainland India — exists. In the name of national security, the fundamental rights of the citizens are being curtailed.

Views expressed are personal