Unrequited natural chaos

It is a veritable cascade of tragedy that continues to defy. Day after day, we match our wits and sensibilities to battle disasters that have manifested themselves across our country over the past few years, and astounded us over the last few days. The latest is the misery that we witness in Uttarakhand and Kerala over the last week, the freshest wounds that have ripped apart our collective feeling of peace and again pushed us to into dread and temerity. It is a travesty that we brace ourselves for repeated catastrophes almost each day now. And, as is wont, natural processes are getting off-track and turning into disasters, killing some of our own and causing large-scale mayhem. The saddest part is that we are now, as a people and a populace, becoming immune and used to such disasters – normalization if you will, and our sinking feelings be damned.

At the same time, the debate is dying, especially when the recent IPCC report established a link between the recurring natural disasters and Climate Change, brutally confronting us with the fact that it is we who are largely responsible for the catastrophe we find ourselves in. Let's focus only on two aspects here today – the sudden upsurge in natural disasters, particularly in the Himalayas region and on what steps are being taken to prevent and mitigate the impact of the same.

Let's take a deep breath too – for Uttarakhand is today bearing a severe brunt of the overall misery and the reasons need to be unfolded, peeled apart like an avocado if you will.

Intimidating timelines

The Himalayan region is no stranger to natural disasters. Natural disasters in the region are a simple extrapolation of natural processes that characterize the region. The landscape of the region maintains a rather thin balance between frictional and gravitational forces that hold and tend to drift the components of the landmass, sadly. Truth be told, the past decade has been disastrous for Uttarakhand at large. We all know the past. Year 2013 and the cloudburst that happened have in our innards an element of permanence, one that cannot be wiped off from our collective memory anytime soon.

Yes, nature's brutal onslaught pierced our hearts, as it does today, but it appears that there is very little that we have learnt as an entity. The effects and after-effects of these disasters are still being only scarcely mitigated, even as we are slammed incessantly and repeatedly by nature's wrath. The number of casualties in the recent floods in Uttarakhand and adjoining areas in Nepal and towards the south, in Kerala, has crossed the 180-mark – with 88 casualties in Nepal, at least 55 in Uttarakhand and 42 in Kerala alone.

Earlier this year, the state suffered the loss of more than 72 lives in the aftermath of a glacial outburst in the Rishi Ganga River in Chamoli district. Before that, the state faced widespread destruction caused by forest fires in 2016 and 2020.

Further back in time, the state had the worst memories from the 1990s decade, which started with the notorious Uttarkashi earthquake of 6.8 magnitude on the Richter scale in the Garhwal region –killing 768 people and causing widespread destruction. Then we had the Malpa landslide in 1998 and the Chamoli earthquake in 1999, this killing 238 and 103 people, respectively.

Several things need to be noted. First, Uttarakhand is just one among the several states in the Himalayan region. There are other states – Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and the hilly districts of West Bengal, which are all prone to similar disasters. Second, human casualties are the most profound losses in a catastrophe, but the destruction of public and private properties are factors that make the life of those that survive very tough.

A resident of Bhimtal, Kunwar Manoj Rana, pointed out while speaking to the Millennium Post that while severely affected regions have gained spotlight and Government aid, other comparatively less-affected regions continue to reel under prolonged power shortages, disrupted food and water supplies and the closure of schools and other facilities and faculties. "It was only at 6 pm on Friday when electricity was restored – after five long days. We had run out of candles on the second day," sighed a dishearted Rana.

Factors behind natural disasters

Topographical factors: Himalayas, as we know, are the only living mountains on the Earth, which have evolved, and are in fact evolving, due to the movement of tectonic plates. These geologically young, and structurally fold mountains, appear to be a stable mass of high-altitude land, but hold within their belly turbulent currents. What seems static is highly dynamic. It should be noted that the Hindu Kush Himalayan system extends for about 3,500 km from Afghanistan in the west to China in the east. It runs along through Pakistan, Nepal, India, Bangladesh and Bhutan. So, the anthropogenic factors of all these countries only add to the vulnerability of the region.

Anthropogenic factors: It appears that the term 'natural disaster' is only partially justified in the world we are living in. The fact that human activities are significantly responsible for propelling 'natural disasters' calls for figuring out a new noun for this purpose, which will be less misleading. Somewhere the term 'natural disaster' pushes us into complacency and dissociates us from the causes of disasters.

First of all, the link between natural disasters and climate change has been largely established — with the latest IPCC report mentioning it in the clearest terms. So, all big and small human actions that contribute to climate change — be it an excessive use of air conditioners or clearing green cover in favour of so-called 'modernity' — are gradually (and even steeply) throwing us into a dangerous future. Is it not shocking that human beings, through their reckless advance towards urbanization, have put their world in peril?

Unplanned urbanization, under normal circumstances, would take some time to show its negative effects. But in the case of ecologically sensitive areas like hills, they give a very little grace period. The World Water Council, in its 2020 Water Policy report, distinguished between two types of urbanization — encroachment of hills by large cities, and amenity migration. Quoting Tiwari & Joshi (2014), the report stated: "Mountain urban centres grow and prosper as a result of different physical and socio-economic drivers, e.g., large cities having grown by encroaching upon nearby hills, like Nainital in Uttarakhand State of India, which began expansion towards its hillsides in the 1970s."

On the other hand, we have amenity migration wherein smaller cities expand themselves for providing livelihood and other opportunities. Both approaches of urbanization appear to be flawed and have their own set of negative repercussions. In the first case, particularly in hilly areas, the burden on regional ecology has increased manifold with the expansion of tourism. It is very disheartening to imagine how the hill cities like Mussoorie and Nainital bustle with huge crowds on weekends; particularly given their proximity with cities like Delhi, these become affordable weekend destinations. What could justify the fact that these ecologically fragile areas are allowed to be taken over by the market forces of tourism? These cities bear the burden multiple times their capacity every weekend.

According to Manoj Rana, the advent of outsiders to vulnerable areas is one of the reasons responsible for widespread damage caused by natural disasters. People, particularly from the states of Delhi, Haryana and Punjab, are willing to take plots in even the most vulnerable regions, known as 'Gadera' (through which water runs down during heavy rains).

To be very clear, the tourism sector is no saint; it has its own set of drawbacks. The unilateral positive perception of tourism promoting the regional heritage and providing employment opportunities can be adopted at only one cost — let the environment degrade and wreak havoc upon locals, and many times on tourists as well. A balance has to be made on this front, and the approach towards tourism has to be reworked.

Socio-economic factors: Every natural disaster has a socio-economic aspect to it. Every catastrophe caused by natural disasters, to a certain extent, is partially an outcome of poverty and hunger. Be it small villages or large towns, the most unsafe localities are reserved by the poorest of families. We assess the magnitude of disasters by counting the corpses and taking stock of the lost property. A major share in the corpses and debris belongs to this socio-economically class. But the problem is even more complex. Socio-economic factors not only determine the outcomes of the disasters but also have a role in shaping them. Poor people sell their lands to affluent outsiders to satiate their narcotic addiction, and often end up working as servants and labourers to the same outsiders!

This hints towards a burgeoning narcotic market operating in the hilly terrains that is hollowing up the socio-economic conditions of the local people, which would only contribute to the ravages caused by the natural disasters.

Mitigating the impact

Collective conscience: The first step towards mitigating the negative effects of natural disasters is to come to terms with the fact that natural disasters with enhanced intensity and frequency have become a part of the world we are living in. Such recognition is important to re-align our lifestyle to the growing threat. Every small and big human action — from using air conditioners in our bedrooms to buying a plot of land for building a house — should come after factoring in the prospects of natural disasters.

The adversary is unidentifiable in any particular form. It pervades us all around. The biggest crises in human history have been solved through collective action — not only of governments and states but of people coming together against a common enemy. Again, in the face of this recurring crisis, we need to come together to fight against an enemy that resides inside us, preventing us from using less of motor vehicles, refrigerators, tin cans or any other things that add to the carbon burden of the planet. An awakening of sorts is required; the sooner it comes, the better it is. Certainly, this will not directly put an end to the humongous crisis. Nevertheless, it will be a first step forward that would influence politics, commerce, businesses — the factors that determine large-scale action/inaction towards climate change, and thus, natural disaster prevention. This awakening would come through new-age leaders. Many such leaders are in the making but the process needs to be facilitated further for creating awareness at all levels — from various layers of governments to family systems. New-age communication tools can be leveraged skillfully to create a collective conscience to save the planet, save ourselves.

Administrative overhaul: As discussed earlier, a blindsided and unidirectional approach towards urbanization and development is acting as a fuel to power the dreadful engines of natural disasters. The growth of cities and the increase in urban population are inevitable consequences of development. The governance of these cities is where things go wrong. Urban local bodies are failing miserably on this front. They are failing not just in building mitigation and adaptation structures but also in ensuring basic aspects like safety.

The recent spate of disasters only indicates that these urban centres, particularly in the hilly regions are very loosely governed by the invisible market forces. Money can drive profit but not safety. For ensuring safety, effective governance, equipped with appropriate finances, will have to come into the picture.

Central and state governments also have their role to play. Apart from strengthening, financing and monitoring local governments, the Central and state governments should come with specific roadmaps of development of urban areas with different geographical features. Environmental experts have raised their apprehension around the deployment of a uniform development plan across all cities. Clearly, what is suitable for Delhi, may be detrimental for Nainital and Mussoorie.

Apart from that, governance failure on larger socio-economic issues like providing good standard education and health facilities uniformly across the country has forced people to take risk of building homes at the fringes of lucrative cities, making them vulnerable to natural disasters. To sum up, bold steps will have to be taken by both the government and the people. There is no easy way out.

Views expressed are personal