Underscored by dilemmas

The recent attack on Pakistan's former PM Imran Khan, during a roadshow, has raised several questions. What would be the destiny of his long march? Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, General Bajwa, was supposed to resign, but would he be able to continue carrying out his responsibilities in the position? What could be the residual effects of this mishap on Pakistan's internal politics? Furthermore, would PM Shahbaz Sharif make an effort to mediate with Imran Khan. Also, is there any possibility that Pakistan's Army removes Shahbaz Sharif, considering him as a failure, and tries negotiating with Imran? Pakistan's highest judicial authority is having an eye on the entire string of events with a view to resolving them.

Let's keep our fingers crossed, as it is a known fact that the judicial system of Pakistan is controlled by the army. So, could the possibility of another military rule be taken into account? It is difficult to state, beforehand, how the judicial system acts.

The person who attacked Imran Khan was captured at the spot itself by a supporter of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). According to his testimonials, the attacker tried loading the gun, underneath the container truck, over which Imran stood. It was a 9 mm pistol. As he tried resisting the attacker, a shot was fired in the middle of the jostle, which went and hit Imran's foot. The shot was fired as it was an automatic pistol. But another witness to the entire incident, coincidentally a namesake to Imran khan, that is Imran Ismail — former governor of Sindh province — stated that the attacker used an AK-47. And it was the reason that multiple shots were fired even after the gun was snatched away. One person died and at least 15 people were injured. If a proper investigation is initiated, the entire plan behind this ambush might be revealed. If not carried out by Pak Intelligence ISI, certainly it would be initiated by the FBI, or the Indian Intelligence. Even Mossad, the Israeli Intelligence, is going to make a move.

For the time being, the biggest question is regarding the actual reason behind the attack. Was it due to any personal grudge or a deep-rooted conspiracy? The conspiracy theory has been strongly upheld by Imran Khan himself. He is pointing his fingers against PM Shahbaz Sharif, Home Minister Rana Sanaullah and Major General Faisal Naseer — the Chief Of ISI.

The magnitude of conspiracy is thickening as the nation happens to be Pakistan. Executing ambushes amid public gatherings is a legacy of the land. On December 27, 2007, former prime minister Benazir Bhutto was shot by a suicide bomber in Rawalpindi during her election campaign. The same city had also witnessed the murder of the first PM, Liaquat Ali Khan, in October 1951. The other noted victim of conspiracy was former PM Yousaf Raza Gillani, though he survived the attack. The country also saw the execution of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the military coup of 1979.

Time and tide are yet to decide the future for Imran Khan. But it could be said that he still holds the courage to last till the end. He was chivalric enough to make his way inside Islamabad and stage a full-fledged political protest with his party, which nearly disrupted the complete chores of the city. He sat for a picketing as the leader of the opposition. In addition, he had the favour of the American Govt. and that of the Pak Army. With full valour, he ousted Nawaz Sharif. The same Nawaz, once the Pakistan Premier, now has to live the life of a fugitive.

Nawaz is trying in vain to make a return to Pakistan with the help of his brother and the Army. So, could there be a fair possibility that the army might use Nawaz as a trump card to challenge Imran? A strong Punjabi politician to counter another tough Punjabi political contender?

A much bigger question is, who would succeed as the next Chief of Army Staff? It seems to be the most important issue for Pakistan. Recently, a meeting was held between Imran khan and Shahbaz Sharif on this matter. According to Pakistan's constitution, it is the PM who recommends a name and then the President nominates the same for the designation. Imran tried to reach a consensus on the matter with Sharif, but Sharif replied saying, let the govt. follow its procedures by nominating their candidate of choice, and asked Imran to put forward his nomination of choice as well. It's all but a matter of rejoicing theoretically.

In actuality, General Bajwa himself has suggested certain names — Lt. General Asim Munir, Lt. General Azhar Abbas, Lt. General Faiz Hameed, Sahir Shamshad Mirza and Muhammad Aamir.

Recently, Qamar Javed Bajwa visited Washington. He attended a meeting with the US Secretary of Défense. In between the conversation, the matter regarding his retirement was also discussed. On this tour, Bajwa was accompanied by Azhar Abbas, the Chief of General Staff. It is highly anticipated that Bajwa is looking forward to designating him as the next army chief. On the other side, General Faiz Hameed is Imran Khan's candidate. During his tenure as the Prime Minister, he couldn't appoint his man of choice as the ISI chief. That was the main bone of contention between Imran Khan and General Bajwa.

Besides all this, Pak economy is completely wrecked. A loan from the IMF is of absolute urgency. This is the reason for Islamabad to rebuild its cordiality with America. Biden's America is initiating towards upgrading the weapons provided to Pakistan. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar expressed his disappointment to the US, proclaiming the necessity to buy weapons from Russia. It could be termed as diplomacy over the edge of a beam-balance. General Bajwa served the tenure twice, but he wishes to continue no more. The present situation in Pakistan is being intrinsically observed by America, China and India. There would be a strong China-US influence on Pakistan in the near future. Hailing from a Punjabi background, General Bajwa shares a 'working relation' with Ajit Doval. Bajwa is willing to initiate talks with India. It would only be favourable for Delhi if the successor belongs to General Bajwa's lobby. But conditions could be contrary, If General Bajwa gets defunctionalised by an anticipatory military rule in Pakistan.

So, could there be a military coup? Chances are bleak. With 2023 approaching, elections are in vicinity. In that case, in place of a military rule, an interim government under Pakistan Army's supervision could be formed before the elections, where neither Imran nor Sharif, but someone else, who might be able to put an end to this current political controversy, can be elected.

After General Zia and Aslam, General Bajwa has been the most powerful among the Army Chiefs. Even India is of the percept, it is General Bajwa, who had taken the endeavour to incorporate a ceasefire at the line of control in Kashmir. He never wanted any repetition of 2016 in Kashmir, neither he wanted to capitalize Section 370 and aggravate terrorism. Even if General Bajwa stays no longer to be the Army Chief, there are possibilities for His recommended Army Chief to get appointed as the PM. Given the circumstances, Pakistan should ideally focus on healing its internal situations rather than provoking anti-Indian terrorist activities. Now it is to be seen who would clutch the reigns of the chariot driving a to-be-formed interim government in Pakistan. It reminds me of a quotation from the pages of 'The Idea of Pakistan' By Stephen Philip Cohen, "Pakistan follows the path shown by its Army".

Views expressed are personal