Shift towards peril?

Population management is a very tricky issue in India, thanks to its profoundly diverse society in terms of geography, religion, culture, art, music and socio-economic profiles of the people. The population of the country in April 2022 has crossed the 140-crore mark. However, the growth rate of population has started tapering off as the average annual exponential growth in population declined from 2.22 per cent during 1971-81 to 2.11 per cent during 1981-91, 1.8 per cent during 1991-2001 and merely 1.58 per cent during 2001-2011. The annual population growth in 2020 has shown a remarkable decline to 0.099 per cent but is still higher than that of China and it is expected that in 2026, it will surpass China when both countries will have 146 crore population.

While dealing with the issues of national importance like food, water, military and now climatic and ecological security, the experts gleefully ignore the role of demographic security. In a diverse country like India, we can ignore it at our own peril. Infiltration of foreigners is aided and abetted by insiders including the corrupt officials posted to man the borders and those who help in procurement of documents for citizenships etc. The groups interested in bringing foreigners start in a planned manner, with reports of hawala money flowing in the country. In the past, some of the states like Assam and Tripura had been the victims of planned demographic changes that gave rise to insurgency in these states. The problem of ethnic conflict has assumed serious proportions in Assam and other states in the Northeast. Population in Assam has increased from 80 lakh in 1951 to 2.6 crore in 2001 and now 3.6 crore in 2021. The growth of infiltration of foreigners has a close connection with national security, especially in border areas. The demographic changes in Assam, as a result of external and internal migration, have brought with them religious, ethnic and linguistic conflicts resulting in terrorism.

Similarly, the inflow of Hindu Bengali migrants from Bangladesh into Tripura after the 1971 war has completely changed the population ratio of the state. The tribal population was reduced to a minority. This led to insurgency and ethnic and linguistic tension in Tripura for almost three decades. However, in case of Tripura, it has a historical legacy as the area of the Tripura Maharaja before partition was much more and consisted of Sylhet, and Bengali intelligentsias of all religions enjoyed the patronage of the tribal king.

According to reliable sources, Uttarakhand is going to be engulfed in demographic conflict as people of a particular religion from outside have been settling in the state in large numbers over the last 7 to 8 years. It is a serious concern for security agencies and local administration. Intelligence has failed miserably in detecting the settlements, especially along the Nepal and China border. The local leaders of both the national parties are either not bothered or encourage this due to vote bank politics, and the corrupt officials help them for a bribe to get documents. A section of Nepalese have been creating problems for the national security of India for past few years but now are facing the same problem of infiltration/ settlement of people of a particular religion in the areas bordering India in Pithoragarh and other bordering districts; as the local Nepali Gurkhas from border areas are migrating from hills in search of jobs. The Census report released by Nepalese government on January 26, 2022, reveals that along the Pithoragarh border in Nepal side, there has been a decline in Gorkha population by 18,860. In Kailali and Kanchanpur districts of Nepal, bordering India, the rise in growth is very high compared to other hill districts. The population of Kailali district increased by 30 per cent.

It is alleged that people are creating a corridor along Bihar, Nepal, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab and Delhi. A large number of people are being settled in the name of refugees and it is feared that Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence may be behind this game to disturb the demographic pattern. Many religious structures and educational institutions are coming up in Uttarakhand and other areas and if the government does not ascertain the cause of such settlements, it will pose a serious threat to cultural integrity and national security.

In Uttarakhand, geological features have been disturbed so much due to lopsided development and population increase beyond the carrying capacity of hills. Further, the local people have a separate cultural and linguistic identity and the way the people from other states are buying lands in the hills, its cultural identity is under threat and, because of this, the local people have been agitating for enactment of a land transfer law on the pattern of Himachal Pradesh which limits the settlement and purchase of land. Uttarakhand's ecology is very critical from the point of view of conservation of river systems and downstream socio-economic ecosystems. One voluntary organization, SDC Foundation, had in the month of January 2022, published a report based on secondary data from election Commission of India which shows a whopping increase of 30 to 43 per cent of voters (from 63,77,314 lakh electors in 2012 assembly elections to 82,66,644 lakh in 2022) in Uttarakhand during past ten years. In Dehradun, Nainital, Haridwar and Udham Singh Nagar, the increase in 36 constituencies is 37 per cent — with Udham Singh Nagar being the highest at 43 per cent. In 'Dharampur' constituency in Dehradun District, there has been a steep 70 per cent increase. Compared to this, the increase in other states was much less like 18 per cent in UP, Goa 13 per cent, Manipur 14 per cent. In Punjab also there is an unusual increase of voters.

The Central and state governments as well as all political parties must think about the possible ways to maintain the integrity of the Indian population. The Parliament must think of enacting a strong Act on foreigners which should inter alia provide for immediate deportation of foreigners by strengthening the intelligence, and if any foreigner has obtained Indian citizenship, his citizenship must be cancelled with simultaneous punishment for officials who were instrumental in helping the procurement of documents used to obtain Indian citizenship and get other benefits. The Border Security Force and other border management units should be held squarely responsible for failing to ensure prevention of infiltration.

The writer is Chairman of the Centre for Resource Management and Environment. Views expressed are personal