Proceed circumspectly

Afghanistan is again under the control of the Taliban that ruled the nation for five years before the USA led-forces ousted them in 2001. The return of the Taliban to power, ending the 20-year control of the USA and NATO, is a policy failure. The decline of the Ashraf Ghani regime began in February last year when the Trump administration started direct talks with the Taliban and executed an agreement on February 29, 2020 to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan in a phased manner, and later, President Biden reaffirmed August 31 as the exit date. The agreement orchestrated by US-Afghan envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, ignoring the legitimate Ashraf Ghani government from the entire process, was a bad move. The Ashraf Ghani regime, through the agreement, was compelled to hold talks with the Taliban for a power-sharing formula and release Talibani prisoners. This agreement was followed by a meeting between representatives of the Taliban and the Afghan government in Doha with the principal condition of the Taliban being that the negotiations with the Afghan Government will take place only if 7,000 Taliban militants, captured during the last 20 years, were released. The Afghan government was initially reluctant to release the prisoners as it was aware of the repercussions it could have on the country, but it was left with no choice but to accept their demand due to the undue pressure of the US administration, leading to the current havoc in the region.

Even though, on one hand, the Taliban were negotiating in Doha with the Afghan government for a peaceful power-sharing formula, the Taliban were spearheading their activities to recapture power by force on the other hand. The release of prisoners in fact acted as an aid to the strength of the Taliban; the release of its ferocious fighters reinforced the Taliban forces who continued with their onslaught on Kabul. It is shocking that the United States could not understand their game plan, as even after the execution of the agreement, there was unrest in the region. It can also be inferred that the US Administration deliberately ignored the warning signs and allowed the Ashraf Ghani regime to fall gradually, culminating in the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan by August 15 — which coincided with our Independence Day.

In the aftermath of the Taliban taking control of Kabul, the most significant repercussions have been felt by its neighbours — India, Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian republics — apart from Europe and America. The emergence of the Taliban at the helm of affairs in Afghanistan will lead to a change in the geopolitical situation in the region as the Indian government, throughout the last 20 years, shared a good rapport and friendly relations with the Afghan government. The Indian government, in the last two decades, has nearly invested USD three billion for building infrastructures in the region and opened a number of consulates in Afghanistan. The Afghan government, over the same period, had bitter relations with Pakistan which was conceived as being responsible for creating instability in the region. It seems that the Indian government will not recognise the Taliban rule in Afghanistan which will further create bitterness between them. The other area of concern around the Taliban takeover would be the economic relations and trade of India with Afghanistan which looks bleak under the Taliban regime. Afghanistan has vast mineral deposits including copper, coal iron ore, lithium and uranium. Now, with the Taliban at the helm, China and Russia will compete with each other to capture these mineral resources. India has to also take a stand on how to continue trade with the new government, which may come into existence.

The Indian government has to deal with the present situation very carefully as the emergence of the Taliban will help China and Pakistan — as both the countries have recognised the Taliban's legitimacy — to use the soil of Afghanistan for their purposes against India. The Indian government needs to make new friends and take into confidence the leadership of Central Asian republics and Iran. It will also have to protect the Chabahar project, which allows Indian goods to reach Afghanistan through Iran, and links the western coast of India to Chabahar. Pakistan, with the help of the Taliban, may try to damage the Chabahar project in order to promote the Gwadar project which is a flagship project under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Another important area of concern for the Indian government is that China may try to build influence in Afghanistan by expanding its belt and road project which may be supported by the Taliban and will become a security threat to India, especially in the Kashmir region.

Even though the Taliban are offering all kinds of assurances for the safety of its citizens, with the Taliban taking over, the insurgencies in Afghanistan will rise, as is evident from the recent bombings at Kabul Airport, killing almost 180 civilians including 13 from the US troops. Although the Taliban have denied their involvement in the bombings and even claimed the death of Taliban members in the blast, the bombings have further created doubts about peace and security in future. Further, the Taliban have promised to refrain from reprisal killings and to allow women and girls to continue their studies and be equal partners in work within the parameters of Islamic sharia but no one knows about the real intent of the Taliban. There have been many disturbing instances of women harassment in Kabul. The Afghan Taliban should unite with all political parties and ethnic groups and create a political framework in accordance with the Constitution of Afghanistan and have a broadly inclusive government having representations of all ethnic groups which will create a sense of security amongst its civilians. In the long-term, India should work for a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan which will be in our interest and bring stability to the region by ensuring that no violence/civil war situation arises in Afghanistan. India should be more concerned than ever before about regional stability due to the influence of Pakistan and China on the Taliban and ensure that Afghan insurgencies don't spill over to our territory. This is an inherent threat now and, therefore, a peaceful and progressive Afghanistan is a necessity for India's internal security and friendly relations with Afghanistan.

The writer — Vice President, India Islamic Cultural Centre, New Delhi — has co-authored the article with Shahryar Khan, Advocate, Delhi High Court. Views expressed are personal