Fraught with limitations

On September 15, the 'Shanghai Cooperation Organisation' will host its conference at Samarkand, Uzbekistan. PM Narendra Modi will be Meeting Pak. PM Shahbaz Sharif. At the conference, Chinese and Taliban governments will also be present. Interestingly, efforts are also being made to start bilateral talks between India and Pakistan.

To my knowledge, PM Modi is quite keen on consolidating a peace process with Pakistan. He has expressed his initiative on the matter, and some of the steps taken by him are very benevolent.

Firstly, this year on the occasion of Muharram, he tweeted on the sacred relevance of the day, observing the occasion with devotion and respect. A few of the hardline BJP leaders expressed their vexation on the matter, saying that they had never ever seen him wearing a skull cap before. In the views of one BJP leader, He shouldn't have made such a tweet on the occasion of Muharram. According to this leader, Amit Shah wouldn't have done this.

Secondly, on the recent incidents of flood, which struck Pakistan inflicting a huge misery, PM Narendra Modi tweeted and conveyed his empathy to Pakistan. It was heard that Pak foreign Ministry appealed for a relief to India, though the authenticity of this appeal was denied by Indian Foreign Ministry. The ones who are engaged in "Track-Two Diplomacy", think that if Pakistan sought help from India, it would actually raise trouble for them. The reason being Imran Khan's re-propulsion in Pak politics. His recent victory in the re-elections from Punjab Province would make him dare to make situations difficult for the Shahbaz government. According to Indian diplomats, the same issue would have triggered the fundamentalists on this side either. In lieu of every sequence and consequence, if India lends out a hand of help towards Pakistan, who would vouch for any insurgency, thereafter, at Kashmir as an aftermath?

Thirdly, even before Sharif came to power in complete support from the Pak Military, the Pak Chief of Staff was in total accord with Indian NSA – Ajit Doval. Right after Shahbaz Sharif officiated as the PM, through a tweet, Narendra Modi wished him, expressing congratulations. A letter was also sent. Sharif, in return, reciprocated with good wishes.

Fourthly, although at the last-held foreign ministry conference at the "Shanghai cooperation" at Tashkent, a bilateral talk was not held between Jai Shankar and Bilawal Bhutto, they did exchange a fair courtesy in good gesture, which used to be a matter quite apprehensive, few years ago.

Fifthly, Modi is thinking about commencing the election precedence in Kashmir. Very recently, he had also held a meeting with some of the separatist leaders of Kashmir, regarding the elections. Notably, he has decided to move along with the existing voter's list, if a new delimitation list is not yet prepared.

The sixth point is Modi's meeting with Sheikh Muhammad Bin Zayed, the President of UAE, at the Abu Dhabi Airport where he embraced Bin Zayed in a tone of warm cordiality; interestingly, this was at the time when BJP Leader Nupur Sharma passed her lewd remarks against the Prophet, creating a public uproar throughout the nation. BJP suspended her on Modi's instruction.

Why is the change in Modi's enactment? Is he looking forward to decease away the memoirs of Godhra after ten years? Is he trying to incorporate the "Atal Bihari Vajpayee" avatar to himself? After his visit to Pakistan, by remarking about Jinnah as "secular", Lal Krishna Advani had flared a steep controversy, being a hardliner himself. The RSS core leaders were enraged to the extent that they forced him to be put down. Has Modi been forgetful about this historical fiasco?

During the time period, when Advani was in a major plight to transform his image to being secular, I clearly remember, my then Editorial Chief commented, "When we are secular, we do need to support this plight of his". But that day, A senior veteran Journalist, after reading my article, raised a question — "How to believe, a cat would refuse the fish and set out for the pilgrim? Definitely, there would be skepticism. He is a prisoner to his own fundamental ideas".

Actually, after the Taliban appropriated power in Afghanistan, diplomatic communication was successfully established by the Modi-Doval endeavor. That made both Pakistan and China quite uneasy. At the same time, though India maintained its consolidation with the US on the Ukraine issue, it didn't show any interest in joining NATO. Parallel to this, Modi did not let fall apart India's relationship with Russia either. Again, India is looking forward to moving strategically, through diplomatic measures, if China makes an aggressive move. In the words of JN Dixit, "India has to maintain terms with China and along, need to be cautious either". This is a 'snake in the garden' theory — the gardener nurturing the flowers, knowing fully well, that there is a snake lurking behind. Now, there are some constraints within the Pakistan-China relationship also. The five most pertinent reasons are

1) The Pak economy is under a continuous spasm, where it is a matter of dire strait for Pakistan to receive funds from the IMF. The Pakistan Army is making efforts to revive its relationship with America.

2) Due to the poor quality of the Chinese armaments, Pakistan has to buy US weapons.

3) If funded by loans from China, the consequences are evident — similar to what happened to Sri Lanka; Pakistan wants to escape the spites of China.

4) There is a constant decrease in the influence of Pakistan on the Taliban government. As India is gaining prominence in Afghanistan, politically, China finds it decisive to consider India more Important than Pakistan.

5) In some of the regions of China, there is a recurrent insurgence, actively led by some of the Islamic terror organisations which are backed by Taliban and Pakistan. This has raised an alarm to the Chinese authority.

At this juncture, when Pakistan is facing immense diplomatic pressure, it would be wise for India to open up bilateral talks. At the moment, Pakistan is not vocal in demand for reintroducing Article 370. Contrarily, it supports India's initiative to proceed with the electoral process in Kashmir. If Modi puts forth a slightest notion of a future autonomous governance in Kashmir, that would be favorable for Pakistan to begin with the bilateral talks.

India has been sharing a very healthy relationship with Gen. Bajwa, the Chief of Staff of Pakistan's Armed forces. In about a month, he would retire from service. This is the most suitable time for India to put its step forward to open the new chapters of reconciliation with Pakistan. The US, along with the rest of the global fraternity, is looking forward to this, certainly.

Post the devastation caused by floods, the UN is sending a delegation to Pakistan. Quite naturally, the entire world is concerned about the ongoing climate disaster. This crisis could possibly reunite the nations of the subcontinent. There is a possibility of raising a joint proposition on the environment issue at the 'SCO'.

This neo-foreign policy, ventured by Narendra Modi, is a commendable act, but there is a tinge of difficulty elsewhere.

India witnessed two verdicts — nearly at the same time — that created a dicey situation in this regard. The Supreme court delivered a verdict — at Chamarajpet in Karnataka, there would be no Ganesh Puja on 'Idgah Maidan'. Contrarily, the state High Court leased permissions for the Puja at another site. At the same time, the offenders of the Bilkis Bano got felicitated with garlands and were treated with "Laddu", and PM Modi on his visit to Gujarat kept silent, whereas the entire world had versed strong contentions against the uprising of this vehement "Hindutva" fundamentalism. So, with such a diabolic trait of action, how would Modi successfully propagate His liberal representation as a global statesman?

It reminds me, after the Godhra incident, how Pervez Musharraf raised the issue, pondering over the social security of the Indian Muslims in context of the Gujarat riots, at the conventions of the General council meeting in the UN. Then, even Vajpayee was cornered due to this communal mishap. Although I do compliment PM Modi for his good faith to cultivate harmony, the question remains about his success in upholding the vision of universal brotherhood when the fundamental path folds of "Hindutva" theory — now looked as a severe social ailment in international perspective — is still the key ingredient in BJP's political index.

Views expressed are personal