Diplomacy on top

Recently, in Delhi, during a conversation with a bureaucrat, I was told, if a diplomat says, 'yes', it would mean 'no'; and if the reply would be, 'possibly', it would imply a 'no' again. And if a diplomat gives a statement, 'No, I wouldn't hold a meeting', that surely makes it clear that the person is not a diplomat.

Before the SCO summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, anticipations were brewing within the media fraternity that there could be possibly a side-line bilateral talk between PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Incidentally, Pakistan is also a member state of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Pak PM Shahbaz Sharif also had been looking forward to a separate bilateral talk with PM Modi.

But to every expectation turned down, neither Pakistan's nor China's head of state could have a meeting with Modi. From the beginning, China had its prowess over the SCO. Through SCO and BRICS, it has been trying to uphold its supremacy in some of the geopolitical zones of importance. In fact, China always opposed granting India the membership of SCO. Later, due to Russia's intervention, China had to agree. Similar was the instance of Pakistan becoming a member. Though China is dominant at the SCO, this time around, it had been much softer in its approach towards India. Before the beginning of the meet, by withdrawing the troops from Galwan Valley, China conveyed a gesture of harmony to India, which was quite commendable. China's benevolence was perceived as a possibility of a 'mellow down' approach in the opinion of some. There was a rising hope too, on the part of Shahbaz Sharif, as he received a message of truce from Modi, at the outset of the flood in Pakistan. All these happenings drew a silver line for at least a brief exchange of warmth between the two countries. The Pak Military harboured this expectation too.

Now, the question remains, why did Narendra Modi not hold a meeting with China, whereas he initiated talks with Putin?

Narendra Modi has always been decisive and cautious before making an important move. This time, at the UN General body meeting, he sent Foreign Minister S Jaishankar in his place and himself opted to attend the SCO summit. India is about to be recognised as a member at the UN Security Council for a tenure of two years. In accordance with that, Modi would be visiting New York as the Acting President of the Council, probably this December, two months before officiating the responsibility of the Council. But, at Samarkand, why did he not formalise a meeting with China, though there were formal talks with Russia?

There are several reasons behind the meeting with Putin. First of all, by staging the meeting with Putin, and keeping silent with China, Modi clearly isolated China. Secondly, even while maintaining a cordiality with Putin, Modi sternly criticised the Russian Military strike over Ukraine. In a public forum, Modi said, "This war should come to an end", but according to the Foreign Ministry sources, within and while on the meet, Modi expressed sharp disappointment, stating, "Ukraine war has levied a considerable damage to India's economy as India imports petroleum and fertiliser products from Russia. With an increase of petroleum cost, food and edible goods had a hike in price all over the country". Due to this pressure, Russia has agreed to supply a larger quantity of Petroleum to India, this time. The ongoing conflict with Ukraine has fractured Russia to a large extent. Russia was in a complete surmise about winning over Ukraine, but the reality turned out to be different. So, it was fruitful for Modi to hold a meeting with Putin, quietly lopsided. Despite issues of conflict, as it prevails between the US and Russia, India would follow its 'India first' foreign policy and maintain its bridge of cordiality with Russia. Thirdly, and last but not the least, next year, in 2023, PM Modi might have to make the meeting with China twice.

The 'G-20' convention will be held next year, towards the end. The hosting venue would be Delhi. Moreover, the next SCO summit would also take place in Delhi in 2023. As per the convention, India would be required to engage in bilateral talks with China, Pakistan and even with the Taliban government this time.

Narendra Modi doesn't want to take any hasty decision. By not indulging in any pitfalls, cobwebbed by China, he would rather aim to softly pressurise China to make them withdraw their 60 thousand troops from 'Galwan'. Amid the prolonged conflict between the US and China, India would be on a beneficial note.

China is about to hold its 20th Party Congress. At this point of time, China too is facing its economic woes, as the housing industry and investment market, there, is arrowed towards a downfall. Similarly, the "One belt and one road project" in the neighbouring nations is not quite proceeding. In such a situation, China looks forward to extending its arm of cordiality towards India. India would respond through a diplomatic reconciliation, and not in any blind faith.

Election is in sight in Pakistan also. What would be the situation? Will Imran Khan be in any state to make a comeback? Who could be the next Army Chief, after Rashid Bajwa? Will Shahbaz Sharif be re-elected or not? These are serious matters of speculation for India. Apart from these, the possibility of Nawaz Sharif returning from London will also be counted by India. Even if Pakistan is not officially being vocal about reinstating '370' in Kashmir, publicly statements could be heard, thrown by some of the ministers. On the other hand, Pakistan is yet not being provided with the latest "F-16" war-planes by the US government. According to the former treatise, 'upgrading' and 'updating' of weapons is a compulsion on the part of the provider and manufacturer country. If a breach occurs, Pakistan may proceed to the court of law.

Modi is well aware of Joe Biden's disappointment with Pakistan. Any bilateral exchange is far off. When Biden didn't even make a telephone call to wish Shahbaz Sharif after winning the elections, Narendra Modi expressed his good wishes. As I mentioned before, Pakistan is at the behest of its wrecked economy. Post-1948, Pakistan had to opt for loans from the IMF, on nearly 21 occasions. As a matter of fact, they also need to wait for America's approval on this. In such a situation, Pakistan in no way could exhibit any form of aggressive behaviour. In the meantime, Modi wants to complete the elections in Kashmir.

So, whether it's China or Pakistan, Modi has never spoken in negation. On the contrary, He is responsive to any sort of bilateral solidarity. So, there is a strong 'possibility' of a meeting to be held, but definitely not at this point of time. The year 2023 is scheduled to be the time when this possibility might turn into a reality. And even at that time, it will come when Narendra Modi thinks it as absolutely favourable.

Views expressed are personal