Costly miscalculations

To use a cricket analogy, one can say that Imran Khan completely misread the pitch. Picking up the cudgels against the Pakistani military establishment always strikes a chord with the masses, who have been fed up with the military's intervention in politics. Imran forgot what happened to popular or mass leaders who took their fight to the gates of the GHQ in Rawalpindi. One ended up at the gallows, and the other missed death by a whisker, thanks to Saudi intervention, but had to spend 10 years in exile. Despite being ousted from power at the behest of the army, Imran's popularity increased by leaps and bounds. However, instead of mending ties with the military establishment, he committed political hara-kiri when he hijacked former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's anti-establishment agenda. Like him, Sharif was also a protégée of the establishment. It was Sharif who, for the first time, openly blamed the then army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa and former ISI chief Gen. Faiz Hameed for his ouster and disqualification from public life in the Panama Papers case. However, Sharif, through the good offices of his younger brother Shehbaz, left Pakistan with the tacit support of the army chief, creating a big drama over falling platelets. Initially, Imran blamed the US for his ouster, a popular narrative in Pakistan. Known for making U-turns, Imran discarded the anti-US agenda and trained his guns at the military establishment after Gen. Bajwa's retirement. He openly called him Mir Jafar and Mir Sadiq (read traitors) and termed the Islamabad corps commander 'Dirty Harry'. His spokespersons on TV and trolls on social media went into turbo drive, not leaving even family members of the armed personnel. His spokesperson, Shahbaz Gill, on a TV channel, openly asked the soldiers not to follow the ‘illegal' orders of their officers. In other words, he was calling for mutiny in the army. The concerted campaign against the army culminated in the May 9 mayhem when a team of rangers arrested Imran from court premises. Imran supporters went berserk, and more than 200 military installations were attacked, the house of the Lahore corps commander was ransacked, and statues of martyrs were desecrated. After his release, Imran, rather than condemning the arson, justified it and said "If he is arrested again, the same will happen". Imran did not realise the gravity of the situation, and that his bete noire, Gen. Asim Munir, was now army chief. Imran, as prime minister, had sacked Gen Munir when he was ISI after he brought before Imran the alleged corruption of his wife Bushra Bibi. Calling May 9 as the 9/11 of Pakistan, the army cracked the whip, and suddenly Imran found himself sitting alone in his Zaman Park house. His most die-hard supporters and close advisers were the first to condemn the May 9 events and quit the party, some even quit politics. The same people, who were encouraging Imran to up the ante against the army, were now saying Imran did not listen to their advice about avoiding a direct confrontation with the army. The reason why Imran did not tone down his high-octane rhetoric against the army was because he was convinced that a section of the army would revolt against the new chief, as Imran had a sizable following among the middle-rank officers, higher echelons and ex-servicemen. Moreover, Gen. Munir was taking time to come to grips with the new position. Gen. Munir is not considered a thoroughbred soldier because he, unlike other army chiefs, is from OTS, not from the Pakistan Military Academy!

On Monday (June 26), DG ISPR Maj Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry's press conference made it very clear that the new chief is completely in control of the armed forces. The army waited for more than a month to clean the mess by sacking three officers — including a lieutenant general — and initiated disciplinary proceedings against 15 officers, including three major generals and seven brigadiers, officers due to their negligence to protect military installations on May 9. He further disclosed that two close relatives of retired four-star generals, including a granddaughter and a son-in-law, spouses of a retired three-star and two-star generals, and the son-in-law of a two-star general were facing strict ‘self-accountability proceedings’. The ISPR press briefing made it clear that Imran's supporters — both in the army and among ex-servicemen — will face the military trial. Political analysts say Imran’s big ego and the sycophants around him are responsible for his downfall.

Senior journalist Rauf Klasra says: "Imran's overconfidence and a huge outpouring of support went to his head. Even chief justice Omar Ata Bandial, while granting him bail, advised that he should condemn the May 9 violence. However, his reply was very diplomatic that when this happened, he was in jail." Klasra further says when Imran was taken to his house in Zaman Park with full protocol by the people who had arrested him, “he was informed that officials of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), Pakistan's anti-corruption body, had come to arrest Bushra Bibi. This made Imran ballistic. First, he abused NAB officials which was recorded on camera and went viral. Then, in a live broadcast, he lashed out at the ISI chief. This proved to be the proverbial last straw for the army."

The army's action against its own people was a clear message to Imran that he and his supporters are going to face military courts.

Now, Imran is pleading daily for a meeting with the army chief through his YouTube broadcasts. People close to him say his telephone calls to GHQ are not answered. Most political analysts say it's too little too late. The writing on the wall is clear — Imran's party is over (pun intended).

The writer has worked in senior editorial positions for many renowned international publications. Views expressed are personal