Confusion to conception

Visit of the supreme statesperson of a nation to another country creates ripples of sensation in media circles. The media, in both countries, tries to analyse whether there are any prospective outcomes or the net result is zero? While a faction of the media fraternity will hail the event as 'historical' or 'spectacular', others might perceive it as being 'disappointing'.

A blindfold of blatant conformism is clearly evident. But in accord with foreign relations theory, it does speak about the successes, assurances and positive outcomes. At the same time, there could always be a shade of negation to some extent. However, it would be a grave mistake to compare this assessment to that of arithmetical deductions given in the textbooks of 'Keshav Chandra Nag'. As such, there could hardly be any simplified equation in this regard. So, I would say, Sheikh Hasina didn't return with heaves of disappointment. One cannot always expect direct lateral bargains with an allied nation. Like nuances of an interpersonal relation, there do exist different layers of cordiality shared between two nations. Hasina's visit to India has been in line with summary expectations. After meeting PM Narendra Modi, Hasina felt quite reassured about the Teesta issue.

The statements furnished by the Indian foreign ministry provide a brighter picture of resolving the Teesta issue; though there is yet not a word of truce from the Indian side.

In a nutshell, there are possibilities of resolving the Teesta issue. Narendra Modi's initiatives on the matters of foreign policy are quite commendable and, at the same time, even Mamata Banerjee is not hard-hitting towards Centre's foreign policy modus operandi. Amid Russia-Ukraine conflict, Mamata Banerjee was very firm in her demand for the safe passage of Indian students — especially those from Bengal — to India. She did not criticise India's foreign policies then. During a conversation with me, she said several times that she is neither the nation's foreign minister, nor the national security adviser. In the matters of foreign policy, it is clear that the BJP-TMC antipathy cannot be cited.

Then why did she have a malevolent stand on the Teesta issue?

The reason wasn't at all to hold any opposition against Bangladesh or Sheikh Hasina. Mamata Banerjee's stand comes in the wake of steep water scarcity that exists in North Bengal. The Bengal CM was keenly looking forward to having a meeting with Hasina on her recent visit to Delhi. Even before the visit, Hasina had invited Mamata during the inauguration of Padma Bridge. In a letter, Mamata did express her wish to attend the ceremony. I am evidence of the courteous interaction between the two. Mamata, however, was not invited to the meeting held in Delhi this time around. Even the chief ministers of Assam and Tripura — close allies of the BJP — were not invited, despite the fact that quite a few important treatises related to Assam were signed.

Actually, why was she not invited? What was the intricacy beneath? Rhyme or reasons filled the air! News media was haughty about it. Some cite the pressure created by state BJP, while to some others, Mamata's visit to Delhi might have triggered the news media to pluck the harp on opposition politics. Incidentally, Nitish Kumar was also present in Delhi around the same time. Although he made a courteous visit to the President and the Vice President, no meeting was held between Modi and Nitish Kumar.

A Bangladeshi Journalist, also a co-passenger in Hasina's chartered flight this time, asked me: Is PM Modi putting up a 'Cold Shoulder' towards Sheikh Hasina? On the last visit, three years ago, the session was graced by a banquet in the President's house, but this time it was just appropriated with a 'working lunch'. Why has there been a sudden change in the gesture? Is the reason in the backstage the accelerating influence of China over Bangladesh? On conveying this apprehension to a bureaucrat closely associated with the PM, he discarded it with a grin on his face. He gave an anecdote, quoting the phrase, "cattle flies with a set of wings to climb to a tree top." When the media lacks proper news to cast, to cover up deficit, it engages in pulps of nothing but rumors.

It is learnt that Mamata might make a trip to Dhaka in the near future. She was forbidden by Delhi to visit China before, and also to the Vatican, to attend an occasion of the Pope. In a federal system of governance, a CM cannot decide on official trips without the prior permission of the Centre.

Mamata feels that Narendra Modi could have invited her for a discussion in Delhi. She has no problem with it. However, she believes, due to hydro-electricity production and construction of a dam in Sikkim, grave water shortage has been created in North Bengal; and a trilateral meeting is necessary for the resolution process. Before her visit to Sheikh Hasina, she feels that the Central government should lease out a budget to build a water reservoir in North Bengal — based on the reports provided by Kalyan Rudra. In her view, Centre-state mutual cooperation is necessary. Though, in the opinion of a few ecologists, the water level of Teesta decreases or increases according to the climatic transition between summer to monsoon, which also impacts the overall distribution of Teesta water. The core problem, however, lies elsewhere. In the entire North Bengal, state BJP wants to move its dice. They are eyeing to expand. Back in the corridors of time, state BJP had opposed a treatise over Ganges. The CM was Jyoti Basu, and Mamata was the leader of opposition. Basu had advised Sheikh Hasina to have a discussion with Mamata, which he thought would be effective. On the other hand, he initiated his discussions with PM Deve Gowda. This time around, in her letter to Mamata, Hasina hinted that 'Track Two' assurance from India was clearly evident. So, distribution of Teesta water is not at all a matter of contention between Modi and Mamata. It is a concern of 'handling' the entire policy.

During the Manmohan Singh administration, there were loopholes on Delhi's part in handling this. Sending Menon and Nair to put constitutional pressure on Mamata was not at all an intelligent decision. During PM Modi's visit to Dhaka, when the bus service connecting both the countries was inaugurated, Mamata was invited by Modi to visit Sheikh Hasina's residence. Bhaskar Knuble, PM's Advisor and a bureaucrat from West Bengal cadre, was in charge of the Centre-state coordination. Besides, Sheikh Hasina and Mamata Banerjee have been sharing a deep cordiality, since ages.

However, the history of policy and diplomacy always lives in the present. The question is, why should the foreign relations between India and Bangladesh suffer due to internal differences? Given that elections are approaching in Bangladesh (2023) and India (2024), it is the best time to loosen the knots of confusion. It needs to be realised that not only Bangladesh should value its ties with Delhi, Dhaka is of equal importance to Delhi — the single largest reason being Bangladesh's priceless geo-political position for India.

Views expressed are personal