A big blow

It would not be an exaggeration to note that the present world is already in the midst of a kind of new Cold War between authoritarian capitalism led by China and a new liberal economy under US leadership. In this era of complex interdependence, such hypotheses may also seem a bit over-simplification of the situation. In this context, the withdrawal of NATO troops and the immediate Chinese response welcoming Taliban in Afghanistan have provoked much impetus to this growing debate.

However, the reincarnation of the Taliban may be seen as the biggest blow to the process of democratization in Afghanistan, broadly to the region of South Asia. The process of democratization in Afghanistan has always been the most fragile in comparison to other post-colonial nations of South Asia. Prior to the drastic changes since August 15, 2021, Afghanistan, during the last two decades, was showing some optimistic development towards democratization in terms of holding presidential elections at regular intervals, securing the political rights of the Afghans and creating a relatively promising ambience towards prevailing of democratic norms and principles. But presently, the situation has changed drastically overnight.

The region witnessed the first democratic election in Afghanistan only early this century in 2004 and 2005. Due to its geopolitical location at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, it has been the playground of big powers for their geostrategic interests. From 1996 to 2001, it was captured by the Pakistan-backed Taliban, a hardline Islamic militant group. The Taliban rule came to an end with the formation of Hamid Karzai's government. The Afghan government, since the 9/11 attack of 2001, had been fighting alongside the NATO forces against any kind of Taliban insurgency in the country. Prior to this Taliban insurgency and civil war, Afghanistan had been occupied by the USSR in the 1980s due to its geo-strategic importance. Since the early 21st century, especially after the end of the Taliban regime, Afghanistan had been gaining some democratic grounds with an elected President and a bi-cameral legislature at the Centre. Nonetheless, democratization in Afghanistan has been riddled with so many anti-democratic forces, amidst which the threat of gender violence, discrimination and exclusionary socio-cultural practices have been the main challenges that have always impeded its democratic path. Women in Afghanistan have been the most vulnerable and marginalized section in Afghanistan. It has been found that Afghan women, like other nations of South Asia, have historically been subjugated due to exclusionary and patriarchal socio-cultural practices. Needless to say, atrocities against women will be enhanced badly in the coming days under 'Taliban 2.0'.

The role of the USA behind such a rapid insurgency of Taliban in Afghanistan has to be scrutinized closely, which has already raised some unresolved questions as well. What made America quit in such a manner even after spending more than USD two trillion and losing around 2,500 US army personnel in different skirmishes during the past two decades in Afghanistan? Even the US President was seen so confident when he, while responding to a journalist, said that a mere 75,000 Taliban will never be a big deal to the three lakhs well-equipped Afghan troops backed by NATO. The US intelligence agencies assured that the Taliban, even if they are to take over entire provinces they need at least three to four months. But it has been seen that within a quick span of merely 10 days, Taliban captured all provinces including Kabul. Is it the utter failure of US intelligence only? To accuse the US intelligence abruptly would only be a mere simplification of the fact. Especially, when on July 13, 2021, it was exposed that 23 officers from the US Embassy of Kabul warned President Joe Biden about the movements of Taliban in bordering areas! Moreover, they confirmed that if the US Army is being withdrawn from Kabul, Taliban will occupy the entire land in no time. The escape of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is another big blow to the Afghan soldiers that badly caused a decline in their morale. Thus, poor leadership, huge corruption, and strategic failures are some of the reasons for this outright insurgency. The most crucial reason behind the decline of morale of Afghan soldiers was the 'Peace Deal' signed by the then US President Donald Trump and Taliban in February 2020 at Doha in Qatar. It was an eye-opener to the Afghan soldiers who took the matter as a breach of promise. It was followed by the poor leadership of Biden who clearly stated that the US troops would be withdrawn step by step by September. It is needless to say that Trump's policy of 'America first' (known as Xenophobia) followed by Biden's call for the same gave much positive impetus to Taliban to take over Afghanistan again after two decades. Such a picture of evacuation from the US Embassy has been severely criticized and compared to the situation of Saigon in South Vietnam in 1975 which brought such humiliating and embarrassing situations during the Vietnam War. Many have already started labelling the situation as 'Joe Biden's Saigon Moment'. On this, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has claimed that the basic mission of the USA has been successful as it was able to grab Osama Bin Laden. But again, it seems a merely lame excuse as Laden was assassinated by the US in 2011, almost one decade earlier from this insurgency.

However, it may be argued that such backsliding of the USA will have some far-reaching consequences. Especially, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic when a 'New Cold War' between the authoritarian capitalism led by China and neo-liberal capitalism under the leadership of the USA has already been felt in the new millennium. Such political developments in the region will unfold new avenues and new challenges to the process of democratization inevitably. And this backsliding of the USA from Afghanistan is undoubtedly a reason for China to have a fresh impetus to further its influence in the region. The official response of China in this regard has shown the same as it will provide a formidable impetus to its BRI projects and its connectivity with Central Asia as well.

The only hope that the province of Panjshir — under the able leadership of Ahmed Masood, son of towering leader Ahmed Shah Masood of Northern Alliance — and Vice President Saleh are showing is at the epicentre of all resistance against Taliban. The restoration of democracy and relatively limited governance depend much on this Northern Alliance and their mode of resistance against Taliban. The whole democratic world including India is eyeing Panjshir at the present.

Views expressed are personal