Covid R-value rises sharply again
New Delhi: The R-value which reflects how rapidly coronavirus pandemic is spreading, has sharply risen close to 1.2 over the last fortnight, mainly driven by cases in states like Kerala and Maharashtra, say researchers.
The R-value calculated between August 24-29 stood at 1.17 as against 0.89 between August 14-17, according to the researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai. The rise in the R-value comes after a steady decline in cases in the first half of August in the country.
Up to that date (August 30), the situation looked pretty bad. India's R-value had shot up close to 1.2. Not only is it greater than one, it is much higher than the last time there was a scare of a third wave (it was 1.03 at that time).
This is driven by several states having their R-value go over 1 in the last few days of August –most notably Kerala and Maharashtra, but also Mizoram and Jammu and Kashmir, Sitabhra Sinha, who is leading the team of researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, said.
The R-value of Kerala stood at 1.33, which is the highest number of active cases in the country. Similarly, the R-value of Mizoram was 1.36, Jammu and Kashmir (1.25), Maharashtra (1.06) and Andhra Pradesh (1.09).
The Reproduction number or R refers to how many people an infected person infects, on average. In other words, it tells how 'efficiently' a virus is spreading.
A smaller R indicates the disease is on a decline. Conversely, if R is greater than 1, the number of infected people is increasing in each round –this is what is called the epidemic phase.
After the devastating second wave that saw hospitals and health infrastructure being overwhelmed by patients infected by SARS-CoV2 coronavirus, the R-value started to decline.
During the March-May period, thousands of people died due to the infection while lakhs were infected.
When the second wave swept through the country between March to May, the R-value was 1.37 (between March 9 to April 21).
From May 15-June 26, the R-value stood at 0.78. However, it slowly started increasing –it was 0.88 from June 20-July 7, 0.95 from July 3-22, 0.96 from July 24-27.
