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Montek finds statistical error in IMF forecast

Montek finds statistical error in IMF forecast
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Differing with International Monetary Fund’s growth forecast of 4.9 per cent for India during 2012, Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said it has a statistical problem.

‘I think, it is the result of a bit of statistical problem,’ he told reporters on the sidelines of 4th OECD World Forum in reply to a question on the recent economic growth projection for India by IMF.

Ahluwalia said he did not think 4.9 per cent projection is reasonable for 2012, as in the first half, Indian economy is estimated to have grown by 5.5 per cent.

‘This [4.9 per cent GDP growth projection] would mean that the economy will further decelerate. I doubt it will,’ he said.


...BUT IS POSITIVE ON POVERTY REDUCTION

The government’s development strategy has worked well with initial estimates suggesting 2 per cent decline in the incidence of poverty during 2011-12, the terminal year of the 11th Five Year Plan, said deputy chairman of Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia. ‘The 2011-12 data is now available... One or two people who work on this have come to the conclusion that when the data will be finely available, the rate of reduction in poverty will be 2 percentage points,’ he said while addressing 4th OECD World Forum. Ahluwalia said there was general agreement among the experts that poverty has come down in the country, though the reduction might not have been fast enough. 
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