A “normal” monsoon and adequate water in the main reservoirs nationwide, coupled with more money to agriculture, have set the stage for a record agricultural output of 270 million tonnes -- 2 percent more than the government’s target -- for the Kharif (summer) and Rabi (winter) crops of 2016.
With the south-west monsoon officially withdrawing this week, water available in 91 reservoirs nationwide is 25 percent more than the amount available in October 2015, according to Central Water Commission data, except in Karnataka and Gujarat, which saw a 20 percent deficit in seasonal rainfall.
Against the government target of 132 million tonnes, India is set for a Kharif output of 135 million tonnes, according to preliminary government estimates; the previous highest was 131 million tonnes in 2011-12.
It also appears India will meet the Rabi target of 137 million tonnes, one million tonnes more than the previous high in 2013-14.
A third of India’s districts were faced with deficient rainfall in the June-August period; it now appears that Karnataka and Gujarat will be hardest hit, according to a report, ‘Monsoon Granular Review’ by CRISIL, a research agency.
A “double whammy” -- three successive years of deficient rainfall and inadequate irrigation facilities -- makes 13 districts in the two states the worst-affected in this “normal” monsoon season, the report said.
The four-month monsoon season ended within reasonable limits of (+/-)4 percent of the 100-year average. The actual deficit was 3 percent -- India received 97 percent of normal rainfall in the June-September period -- diverging from the prediction of 6 percent excess rainfall forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) as the monsoon began.
The 91 major reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission are at 75 percent capacity, equalling the average availability of the last ten years.
“The share of distressed districts in all-India Kharif production is just 1.7 percent, but the stress to agricultural household incomes could be high because a quarter of the Kharif production in Karnataka and a third in Gujarat comes from the distressed districts,” the CRISIL report said.
Even with Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Kerala getting less-than-normal rains, adequate irrigation facilities will ensure that these states are not affected as much as Karnataka and Gujarat, the report said.
Except for some districts in some states, the picture for India’s agricultural economy looks positive because the sowing of the summer crop has crossed the end-of-September average sowing of 102.5 million hectares to reach 107.1 million hectares.
Pulses output in the Kharif season was estimated to be 8.7 million tonnes, 22 percent more than the best of 7.1 million tonnes achieved in 2010-11, and 60 percent more than last year’s 5.5 million tonnes.
Oilseeds production is set to be 234 million tonnes, 4 percent more than the best of 226 million tonnes produced in 2013-14.
Every monsoon -- whether it is good (above normal) or bad (below normal) -- leaves some areas inundated and some parched. In the “normal” monsoon of 2016, eight states received less than 85 percent of normal rains.
A normal monsoon in 2013 hit 30 % and 23 % deficits in Bihar and Jharkhand, respectively.
In 2016, except for central India, the other three regions—northwest, southern peninsular and eastern (including northeast) — reported deficits in June-to-September rainfall.
Only four of 36 meteorological sub-divisions received more than 20 percent above normal rainfall. Drought-stricken Marathwada and the coastal strip of Konkan in Maharashtra received 22 percent and 21 percent above-normal rainfall, while two divisions of Rajasthan, west and east, received 20 percent and 32 percent above-normal rains, respectively.
Nine divisions -- covering eight states -- of coastal and southern Karnataka, Kerala, eastern Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya have received less than 80 percent of the normal monsoon rain. Twenty-three divisions--covering the whole of eastern and central India--received normal rainfall.
The north-eastern monsoon -- or the retreating monsoon, as it is called -- is set to give normal rains to Tamil Nadu, southern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa, according to the IMD forecast, offering relief to the distressed parts of the states.
Cotton and sugarcane, the major cash crops of India, have suffered in this season. Cotton has been planted on 83 percent of normal cropped area, and its production is expected to be 11 percent less than the best production of 360 lakh bales achieved in 2013-14.
Sugarcane is being cropped on 90 percent of normal cropped area, and the season is expected to produce only 82 percent of the best cane production of 360 million tonnes achieved till date (2011-12 and 2013-14).
(In an arrangement with IndiaSpend.org, a data-driven, non-profit, public interest journalism platform, with whom Abhishek Waghmare is an analyst. The views expressed are strictly those of IndiaSpend.)