Maharashtra not a cakewalk for any party, eyes on post-poll ties
15 Oct 2014 12:29 AM GMT
Even after registering unprecedented win in the Lok Sabha polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is finding it a tough getting majority in Maharashtra as the assembly election will be a very tough challenge for the party.
The Amit Shah-led BJP is contesting Maharashtra assembly poll all alone after severing the 25 year’s long relation with Shiv Sena. Similarly, after ruling Maharashtra together for 15 years, the Congress and NCP parted ways and are contesting against each other in the assembly election. Even, Raj Thackeray-led MNS, who had praised Narendra Modi during Lok Sabha polls, is hitting out at Modi now. With changed political equations in the state, it’s expected that no party will get the clear mandate, which will pave way for new post-poll alliances. Â
The BJP and Shiv Sena alliance has won 42 Lok Sabha seats out of total 48 parliamentary constituencies in the state. But the political turmoil after the differences over seat sharing issue between BJP and Shiv Sena has turned the political equation of the state. In the last assembly poll, the Congress had won 82 while NCP had secured 62 seats and had formed the government in the state for the thirds time. While BJP and Shiv Sena had won 46 and 44 seats respectively, when Sena had contested on more seats while being the largest party of the state.
With changed political equations, the division of communal and secular votes is a reality, where Hindu votes will be divided into BJP, Shiv Sena and MNS and secular votes will be distributed between Congress and NCP. Apart from backward and Dalit votes, the Muslim electorates are in influential number in state.
The sudden death of BJP’s backward leader Gopinath Munde may prove a major setback for the saffron party. Munde was an influential backward leader of the party. The BJP is trying to woo backward electorates by promoting the daughter of Munde, Pankaja Munde. Apart from this, the party is also wooing north Indians as well as Gujarati voters by fielding prime minister Narendra Modi as the star campaigner. It seems that BJP too knows that they are not in position to get majority, so that’s why Narendra Modi has publically announced not to utter a single word against Shiv Sena’s founder Bala Saheb Thackeray paving the way for the post-poll alliance. In contrary to that, Shiv Sena is continuously attacking BJP along with Congress and NCP. Shiv Sena is trying to woo Marathi voters invoking Marathi manus.
On the other side, with the ending of Congress and NCP marriage, the division of secular voters cannot be ruled out. There is direct contest between Congress and Shiv Sena on about 70 assembly seats of Mumbai, Pune and nearby areas. The NCP is also in the fray with full force in these areas for the first time. The votes of Muslims cannot be ignored in Mumbai. Hopefully, Muslims votes will consolidate in favour of Maratha stalwart Sharad Pawar. In the multi-cornered battle, which party will emerge as the largest faction will be cleared only after the assembly poll results on 19 October, but one thing is clear that the margin of victory on each seat will be lesser.
The Amit Shah-led BJP is contesting Maharashtra assembly poll all alone after severing the 25 year’s long relation with Shiv Sena. Similarly, after ruling Maharashtra together for 15 years, the Congress and NCP parted ways and are contesting against each other in the assembly election. Even, Raj Thackeray-led MNS, who had praised Narendra Modi during Lok Sabha polls, is hitting out at Modi now. With changed political equations in the state, it’s expected that no party will get the clear mandate, which will pave way for new post-poll alliances. Â
The BJP and Shiv Sena alliance has won 42 Lok Sabha seats out of total 48 parliamentary constituencies in the state. But the political turmoil after the differences over seat sharing issue between BJP and Shiv Sena has turned the political equation of the state. In the last assembly poll, the Congress had won 82 while NCP had secured 62 seats and had formed the government in the state for the thirds time. While BJP and Shiv Sena had won 46 and 44 seats respectively, when Sena had contested on more seats while being the largest party of the state.
With changed political equations, the division of communal and secular votes is a reality, where Hindu votes will be divided into BJP, Shiv Sena and MNS and secular votes will be distributed between Congress and NCP. Apart from backward and Dalit votes, the Muslim electorates are in influential number in state.
The sudden death of BJP’s backward leader Gopinath Munde may prove a major setback for the saffron party. Munde was an influential backward leader of the party. The BJP is trying to woo backward electorates by promoting the daughter of Munde, Pankaja Munde. Apart from this, the party is also wooing north Indians as well as Gujarati voters by fielding prime minister Narendra Modi as the star campaigner. It seems that BJP too knows that they are not in position to get majority, so that’s why Narendra Modi has publically announced not to utter a single word against Shiv Sena’s founder Bala Saheb Thackeray paving the way for the post-poll alliance. In contrary to that, Shiv Sena is continuously attacking BJP along with Congress and NCP. Shiv Sena is trying to woo Marathi voters invoking Marathi manus.
On the other side, with the ending of Congress and NCP marriage, the division of secular voters cannot be ruled out. There is direct contest between Congress and Shiv Sena on about 70 assembly seats of Mumbai, Pune and nearby areas. The NCP is also in the fray with full force in these areas for the first time. The votes of Muslims cannot be ignored in Mumbai. Hopefully, Muslims votes will consolidate in favour of Maratha stalwart Sharad Pawar. In the multi-cornered battle, which party will emerge as the largest faction will be cleared only after the assembly poll results on 19 October, but one thing is clear that the margin of victory on each seat will be lesser.
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