Hayrana heavyweights: No clear winner may emerge after poll results

Apart from the ruling party Congress and principal opposition Indian Na tional Lokdal (INLD), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also contesting on all the 90 assembly seats in the state. Other parties in the fray are — Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), along with other regional parties of the state. 

In the multi-corner assembly poll, no political party is expected to get clear majority. The results are expected to be a repeat of 2009 assembly election. Consequently, the possibility of a post-poll alliance would be a better strategy for the leading political parties.

In the last assembly poll, no party had got clear mandate. The ruling Congress was restricted to just 40 seats and INLD had managed to win 31 seats. Apart from this, Kuldeep Bishnoi-headed Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) had won six, BJP four, while BSP and Akali Dal managed to win just one seat each and seven seats were won by independents. Somehow, Bhupinder Singh Hooda managed to prove majority on the floor of the house. But, the scenario is very different this time due to anti-incumbency and anti-Congress wave in the state. It’s anticipated that INLD is likely to emerge as the largest party in the state. The fight for number two slot will be between Congress and BJP.

Notably, there are 1.62 crore electorates in the 90-member state assembly. With 25 per cent, Jaat voters stand at the top and on the second number its Scheduled Caste with 21 per cent vote bank. Apart from this, the vote share of Punjabi community is 8 per cent, Brahmins 7.5 per cent, Ahir 5.14 per cent, Bania 5 per cent, Jaat Sikh 4 per cent, Muslims 3.8 per cent, Rajputs 3.4 per cent, Gurjar 3.35 per cent, Saini 2.9 per cent, Kumhar 2.7 per cent, Khatri 1.9 per cent, Bishnoi 0.7 per cent and one per cent voters of other caste.

The politics of state is dependent on the caste-based arithmetic. Parties brainstorm a lot to solve the calculations of caste-based vote bank. Parties are being told to include the caste-based issues in the manifestos of parties.

Parties are brainstorming to find out equations to target about 30 seats out of 90 state assembly segments. The INLD has declared its candidate for the 88 seats, while it has left two seats for its ally partner Akali Dal. The BJP’s list of 90 candidates reflects that the party has declared its candidates on the basis of vote share of different communities in the state. The Congress has also declared its candidates on all the 90 seats. The Congress has tried to pacify the voters of both Jaat as well as non-Jaat communities. Bhupendra Singh Hooda managed to pick candidates of its choice. Even though, there was no protest by Congress workers over ticket distribution, Congress state president Ashok Tanwar flayed the candidate selection.

About 30 seats in the state are Jaat dominated, while Brahmins, Sikh, Vaish and Punjabi communities have influence over 46 seats. Rest of the seats are being claimed by Dalit and other backward castes. The previous polling trends show that electioneering in the state assembly is totally based on caste vote bank and this year too it’s expected that voting patterns will remain the same. Like Lok Sabha polls, there is no Narendra Modi wave in the assembly election, the state election is being contested on caste-based and local issues. The impact of results of assembly by-polls, which were not in favour of BJP, is quite visible in the state assembly poll. So there is no wave in favour of BJP, but disgruntled party workers are playing the spoilsport and the Congress is struggling with anti-incumbency factor.