Will history repeat itself?

Karnataka CM Basavaraj Bommai has sprung into action after he took over as Chief Minister, replacing the Veteran political figure, BS Yediyurappa. He has initiated some policy measures and is likely to meet Delhi high command very soon. His promotion to the post will certainly answer many of the questions that were being floated regarding the possible shift of crucial Lingayat votes away from the BJP, given the towering presence Yediurappa enjoys among the community. It has also, to an extent, put to rest the speculations that suggested a repeat of history that unfolded in the 1990s for the Congress. One observable fact has been that in recent years, specifically after 2014, there have been rare incidents when the BJP decided to remove a Chief Minister in the middle of the term. So, there was something that tormented the Central leadership, good enough to provoke it to make an apparent shift from its trend in a state that could be called BJP's gateway to the south. The tensions between Yediyurappa and the Centre had been there right since the beginning of his term — pushing the state on the back foot, and preventing the administration from taking major decisions on the development front. One theory that has been floated in this regard, talks of the BJP's apprehension around shifting of Lingayat vote base on dynastic lines. Many times, the Central leadership had pointed out interference from Yediyurappa's sons in governance matters. The theory holds weight given the long-term approach the BJP is known to pursue to strengthen and consolidate its electoral support. So, was Yediyurappa's stature growing too big to be accommodated in the Central view of the state's politics? Another important factor could age. The party, for some practical reasons, remains very obsessed with the age factor. But the critical question was how to retain the Lingayat votes without Yediyurappa? Basavaraj Bommai — who comes from the same community and is the son of former CM SR Bommai — seems to be a good answer. Bommai holds a legacy among the community and could safely be called not as luminous a figure as Yediyurappa. Then there is one more important parameter that his appointment satisfies — and that is Ydiurappa's consent. Basavaraj Bommai has the experience of holding a crucial home portfolio under Yediyurappa's leadership. It could be better left upon time to figure out if these moves by BJP could prevent history from repeating itself. The Lingayat community is known to keep a very strong emotional bond with their leaders. The 1994 assembly elections is a textbook example of the existence of this bond. The Congress had risen to power on the backs of Veerendra Patil who mobilised the Lingayat votes to ensure a landslide victory for the party in the state. Patil subsequently had a paralysis stroke which prompted Rajiv Gandhi to make the last-minute decision to remove him from the CM post before returning back from the state. The political sympathy worked out in favour of Patil and backfired against the Congress which has been since then finding its lost strength in the state. In the current case, the Bharatiya Janata Party has got rid of ageing Yediyurappa, but after making certain arrangements. BJP is well aware of Yediyurappa's influence. The party had already paid a heavy price back in 2013 after drifting away from the leader. Yediyurappa had formed a new party after his 2011 expulsion from CM's post at the hands of Lal Krishna Advani. This prevented the BJP from securing victory in the 2013 assembly polls. The BJP then tasted victory again in the 2018 assembly polls but only after taking Yediyurappa within its fold. A political stalwart of Yediyurappa's stature cannot be expected to lose his influence as an outcome of a single decision of the Central leadership. In fact, it will be most interesting to see how he shapes himself in the new political landscape. Yediyurappa's ambitions and aspirations apart, one must not forget his two sons — BY Raghavendra and BY Vijayendra — whom he might want to place in some comfortable position during his lifetime. It should not surprise anyone if Yediyurappa continues to be a figure of influence in the new scenario. Yediyurappa resigned from the CM post-midterm but with significant reluctance, and perhaps also with a hidden call for sympathy! There are three important aspects that need to be watched for in the new administration — how BJP sails through without Yediyurappa, where does Yediurappa establishes himself in the new system and, most importantly, to what extent will the citizens be relieved from the partial impasse on the progression of development policies. The BJP has apparently tried to make a safe transition from Yediyurappa before the next assembly elections. How safe it turns out will have to be answered with time. The bet is important as it might have a significant impact down south — positive or negative, it is not known.