Third time's the charm
In a year full of tragedies, shocks and horrors, it is hard to say what was the most surprising of the many dark events that transpired but the convoluted and tragic saga of events that played out in Lebanon this year is high on the list. While political instability, corruption and apathy are sadly par the course in Lebanon, few could have predicted the volatile breakdown of the nation that took place this year starting with the Beirut blast.
As may be recalled, following a bloated official response, then PM Hassan Diab and his cabinet resigned shortly thereafter, presumably to take responsibility for the incompetence and corruption that finally created the conditions for the Beirut blast. His speech made it clear that he and his cabinet were little more than the stooges of the true responsible party that had deemed him as the most suitable fall-guy for this tragedy. It was noted that his resignation speech referenced this group as "they" more than two dozen times.
What was interesting to note was that Diab's exit from his office mirrored the circumstances of his entry. Last year, he was sworn in to replace the government at a time when protest movements were gathering momentum as they rallied against the age-old issue of corruption and neglect. Diab, seen as a technocrat and political outsider, vowed to make a government of independent experts that would drag Lebanon from its woes. As it were, his appointment succeeded in taking the wind out of the sails of the protests.
This time, it was his abrupt exit that achieved the same result. This is not to say that Diab and his administration did not share the blame, as much as they have tried to portray the matter in such light. Indeed, commentators have noted that the fall of Lebanon and Diab's government was expedited by Diab being politically inept. Indeed, his spectacular failure may have diminished whatever trust the public had in the idea of a so-called government of experts. If the background players who hold the real reins of power were intending to drive the population towards more traditional structures of power in the country, they may have succeeded.
Now, after months of deliberations and failed attempts, Lebanon has a new government and a new PM. It is interesting to note just how perfectly Lebanon's political destiny has come full circle. Now, former PM Saad Hariri is back, pushed up by an extremely, perilously narrow majority. Saad, who held the post last year until the protests saw him resign his post in disgrace, is by no means the first choice for the ruling class or the people who don't exactly regard him well. He came after the Prime Minister-designate Mustapha Adib failed to form a cabinet in Lebanon's deeply divided and cumbersome political scene. As the limitation of being a Sunni Muslim limits the candidate pool for PM, by a process of elimination, it was Saad who edged forth to victory. Most newspaper outlets have been quick to point out that this third try, is likely the last for Saad and by relation, for Lebanon. For his part, Saad has vowed to continue in the technocratic ways of his predecessor. The nation has as many troubles as it does political and social fault lines. Saad has first and foremost, vowed to stop the collapse of the entire nation, a scenario that brings to mind the civil war that is still the reason for many of the divisions that continue today. Even the protestors who despise Saad and see him as being a symbol of a broken complicit system and betrayal of their hope for radical change will be willing to accept him in the absence of alternatives. Similarly, Hezbollah, the so-called shadow power of Lebanon, also recognises that this is a do or die moment for them. While the organisation has continued to push its agenda at the detriment of the nation, now it recognises that only Hariri can stave off the ruination of their base of power in the region.
Ultimately, as many have speculated, Saad Hariri's government is afloat on borrowed time. It may or may not change anything in a system in which the guilty stay under the surface and political fortunes change as endless government rejigs are attempted to control the chaos. Still, the third time may be the charm.
