Shattered Daydreams
The Mamata Banerjee-led TMC has sealed a massive victory to secure a third consecutive term in West Bengal. The victory, however, has meant a defeat too — a defeat for the Bharatiya Janata Party's rising ambitions in Bengal. It has shattered their daydream of dethroning Bengal's beloved Didi in her fortress. BJP's months, in fact, years of preparedness have gone in vain; and what lies ahead is a mirage or some miracle in the next term. The results in West Bengal reflect the fact that Mamata's connection with the people in Bengal — Bengalis and all others — as also, her groundwork over the years, have outshone BJP's massive campaign. She has not just managed to stand tall against a paramount opposition but has dwarfed the same outright, with no room for thought or doubt. The saffron party was advantageously placed in the contest for several reasons. One, it had massive resources at its disposal. Two, key members of the Central Cabinet launched into campaign mode for the BJP, something that has now become almost characteristic of the party's political campaigns — be it municipal, state or general elections. Time and again, we have seen the Prime Minister and Home Minister themselves campaign even for regional elections. Three, the massive deployment of Central forces in the state is conceived as an added advantage for the party.
Apart from the visible pomp and show of the reckless election campaign, extending well over a month, the years of silent and less-acknowledged work of the RSS at the back-end failed to allow BJP to achieve the desired objective. Over 1.7 lakh RSS pracharaks have been carrying out their 'microscopic' work in the rural and tribal belts of Bengal daily for at least five years. They were at the rescue of people during difficult times, like 'Amphan', in a bid to garner people's support in the long run. Pracharaks are known to interact with people on an individual basis. In addition to the regular pracharaks in the state, a large number from other states were also deployed in Bengal before the assembly polls. Even Mohan Bhagwat increased his visits to the state over the past one-and-a-half years. And then, the BJP also had the advantage of Suvendu Adhikari. Thanks to his influence, the BJP started out on a respectable podium.
But if such heavy artillery of election gunnery could not bring about the desired end for the saffron party, what else can? TMC's comfortable victory against the BJP, in light of these contexts, indicates two possibilities: One, that Mamata Banerjee's popularity and connection with the people is unmatched; and Two, that BJP's policies at the Centre may not have a widespread resonance amongst the people in Bengal. Clearly, both factors were at play in the recent elections. Apart from the matter of people's trust, there were certainly other factors that have failed the BJP in West Bengal, such as turning the contest into a TMC vs BJP tussle, which didn't bode well for the saffron party. And with the Left almost cleaned out now, it is quite possible that their targeted votes also went into TMC's fold. Had the Left done better, TMC's margin of victory over the BJP might just have been less stark. Similar is the case with Muslim votes that seem to favour TMC, in comparison to the BJP.
What the BJP was banking on were rural and tribal votes. The party expected an internal wave emanating from areas such as Junglemahal that would bring in a cascading effect into other regions as well. But in reality, as is obvious now, any such "magical" wave was missing. Urban voters, women in particular, stuck with Mamata. And as was to be expected, COVID-19 dealt the final blow to the BJP's aspirations. The insensitivity shown by top BJP leaders through their reckless (fatal?) campaigning may also have seen voters drift away. The visible fact that the BJP was bringing in outsiders in the midst of a deadly national COVID-19 outbreak destabilized people's trust to a great extent.
People turned out to be more aware of the national calamity than the BJP imagined. Historically, the electorate of Bengal — known for political awareness — is difficult to befool through illusion and mere rhetoric. Bengal witnessed a 21-times surge in daily Coronavirus infection rates, from the date of announcement of poll schedules to today, the date of the results being announced. Daily deaths, which were in single digits at the time of announcement of polling dates, are now nearing the three-digit mark. What is more shameful is that the dreadful situation is, to a large extent, the result of the ignorance of Central leadership. The irreparable losses the state has gone through are too big to remain hidden, or swept under the carpet. At the ground-level, the people's mandate clearly signifies that they are being forced to go through something that they never approved of.
To sum it up, poll strategies and deployment of resources form but one side of electioneering; real groundwork and achievements make up the other. Unless and until these two are combined, the ambitions of victory shall remain hollow and distant. Mamata Banerjee's development works over the past decade have made her stand tall as people's love and trust is bestowed upon her. BJP, on the other hand, needs to introspect where it went wrong in winning the trust of the people.
