Rare respite
International politics, for better or worse, have always been unpredictable. When things look like they should be fine, they go bad. Conversely, sometimes when you expect an escalation to result in more escalation, sometimes you get an apology. This naturally refers to the unusual matter of Kim-Jong-un offering up an extremely rare apology to his South Korean counterpart regarding the recent killing of a South Korean official by North Korean troops.
The killing of the South Korean fishery department official could have marked one of the tensest moments in the relations of the two Koreas following the Korean War. It is the first incident of its kind in recent decades that have been marked with tense standoffs and threatening postures. To recap, the South Korean official was on a patrol boat some 10 km from the North Korean border when he went missing and then resurfaced on the North Korean side. Early this week, North Korean patrol boats found the man on the wrong side of the border wearing a life-vest. Gas masks were put on and the man was questioned from a distance before orders came down from an undefined 'higher authority' to kill the man. Once he was shot, his body and most of his afloat belongings were burned at sea. It was stated later on that the man had financial troubles and had recently divorced. He had apparently left his shoes behind on the boat.
The reaction from the South was immediate. President Moon denounced the killing and anger amongst the South Korean population brewed over the cruel injustice of the act. The North, on the other hand, was entirely silent. It was speculated that the man may have been killed under North Korea's strict quarantine measures under which shoot on sight orders have been given for intruders. This must be seen in the background of what North Korea had claimed was its first COVID case at the end of July. A North Korean defector returning illegally from South Korea had brought the disease with him to the border town of Kaesong, or so the North Korean side had claimed. This story was considered doubtful by many for a variety of reasons and was considered by many as a front to Kim finally admitting to having domestic COVID-19 cases and asking for international aid.
It is also important to remember that the relationship between North and South Korea has seen a steady decline since the 'historic' meeting between Trump and Kim. North Korea has steadily ratcheted up its provocations and threats against South Korea, apparently in response to South Korea not stopping North Korean defectors from floating 'propaganda' balloons over the DMZ. Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong-un's sister and heir-apparent, was at the forefront of making aggressive warnings to the South Korean side. North Korea even went so far as to snap the military hotline between the two nations back in June, a significant move as the hotline was one of the few methods of communication between the two sides.
This is exactly why the apology letter from Kim was such a bolt out of the blue. The South Korean side was not expecting any apology or indeed proper acknowledgement of the act. After all, back in 2010, North Korea refused to apologise for the sinking of a South Korean Warship, an act that cost the lives of 46 sailors. Indeed, it was considered rarer still for North Korea to take a level approach in such matters though there have been a few instances when North Korea released South Korean fishers who had unwittingly crossed the border. Still, the North Korean leader has this time offered sincere apologies for the action and "disappointing" President Moon. He has also offered up the North's version of events which predictably does not match up with what the South has claimed, It is hopeful that this will serve to ease the growing tension between the two sides, not exactly restore relations but normalise them to what they have been. Still, even if the South Korean Government is willing to forgive and forget, the people are unlikely to be so compliant. Already, the South Korean populace is raising the pressure to act decisively over this act. Local commentators have stated that people of South Korea are tired of their Government endlessly pandering to a brutal dictator that has shown little regard for international conventions or the value of life. This will make the South Korean Government's 'good cop-bad cop' approach with North Korea even more of a precarious balancing act.
