On the right track

"Let us protect human rights and the ability of all individuals to make informed choices about whether and when to have children," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. This quote is a suitable answer to many dilemmas various nations are facing in their quest for population stabilisation. In India, where fertility rate has come below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, some political figures commented on 'population imbalance' and stressed on the need to maintain the stability of 'religious demography'. These statements must undergo data-led scrutiny, and be compared to what national and global institutions have to say on this front. The World Population Prospects report — released on the occasion of World Population Day, 2022 — pointed out that "the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950" and "two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman." These estimates go on to indicate the rigor and nature with which population control measures should be adopted. To put things in perspective, the rise in population is broadly attributable to two factors — fertility rate and life expectancy at birth. Fertility rate represents the average number of childbirths a woman gives in her lifetime while life expectancy at birth denotes the average longevity of any born child. Increase in any of the two factors leads to an increase in population. While globally, as also in India, the fertility rate has come down to the desirable low level, the life expectancy stands above 70 years — though falling slightly below the pre-pandemic level. This is close to an ideal situation and most of the countries appear to be on the right track. The twin challenge before the world is to achieve and maintain 'zero growth' of population while also ensuring low mortality among people. Improved life expectancy and low fertility rate sit well with this twin goal. To give an idea where we are headed currently, the UN report noted that the global population will reach the peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s — after which the population may start declining or stagnating. For India also, various models provide different projections of population peak somewhere in the second half of the progressing century. For present, the UN report points out that "eight billion people mean eight billion opportunities to live dignified and fulfilled lives". It is true that the alarm bells around population boom and the so-called "religious imbalance" don't hold much water but the picture is not all too rosy, and a lot needs to be done going forward. In the first place, the global figures hide the diversity of population problems existing in lower-middle income countries. India is one among the countries listed by the UN report that will contribute more than half of the population increase by 2050. Other countries include — the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. The diverse problems faced by these countries need to be distinctly documented in order to find suitable solutions. Population is a complex subject and requires deep understanding in order to avoid chaos. In India, for example, the ill-founded claims of "religious imbalance" by leading politicians might only lead to public chaos rather than achieving something meaningful. Unsolicited claims in public debate around 'disproportionate' increase in Muslim population in India need to be countered publicly. There should be no room for conflict-causing misinformation in a society that is already smoldering. While it is true that fertility rate among Muslim women in India is slightly higher than among the Hindu women, the improvements made by the former over the last decade is simply commendable. With the increase in family income, awareness and education over time, fertility rate among Muslim women has been nearly cut to the half. Rather than giving religious and political color to the issue, political leaders must focus on strengthening health and education standards that organically help keep a tab on population. Awareness around family planning needs to become more common and the taboo around the use of contraceptive measures has to be done away with. Also, as the aging population is expected to increase with life expectancy at birth touching 77 years in 2050, the world must ready itself to "adapt public programmes to the growing number of older persons". Universal healthcare and pension systems should be strengthened from now onwards. To sum up, the world largely appears to be on the right track in terms of long-term population stabilisation. Quirky efforts aimed at fixing what isn't broken can create problems, and thus, need to be avoided. However, there are some country- and region-specific population problems that need to be sorted in a composed and scientific manner.