Not out of the woods

If recent reports are to believed, long Covid could turn out to be the next big crisis that India and the world will soon face. Many people are already facing it. For many-many thousands of those who recover from Covid, their struggle against the deadly disease does not come to an end. There is no exact number on just how common long Covid is but its sufferers across the world likely number in the millions. A frequently cited survey in this regard is one that was given by the Office for National Statistics in Britain that polled more than 20,000 participants who had tested positive for Covid in the last year. One out of five survivors in this group still reported symptoms five weeks after testing positive. 13.7 per cent event had some symptoms 12 weeks after testing positive. In the UK alone, the study estimated that over a million people may have experienced long Covid by March this year. Long Covid symptoms include a variety of symptoms with the list being expanded as new ones are discovered. These include fatigue, shortness of breath, brain fog, loss of sense of smell or taste, anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, headache/migraine and non-restorative sleep.,The wide range of these symptoms defies traditional understanding of infectious diseases and what they are capable of. What we do know about it suggests that while long Covid symptoms are more likely in severe cases of infection, minor cases can have some long Covid symptoms as well which can persist for months. Another thing of note is that there is a working theory that the vaccine could alleviate some of the symptoms of long Covid but it is too early to tell if this is the case. Like many things about the Covid, more research is required before we can make an accurate assessment. But what is clear is that this will be a major problem that our health care systems do not seem currently equipped to take on. As a recent study in the US indicated, COVID-19 patients have a 59 per cent greater chance of death up to six months after infection as compared to people who were not infected. That comes up to around eight extra deaths per 1,000 people that do not get counted as Covid deaths but are clearly linked. The reasons are clear too. Covid leaves stress on the body which can linger for a long time after the virus is gone. General fatigue is just the tip of the iceberg but is daunting enough by itself.' Imagine young, fit people in the prime of their work lives catching the Covid and being left with long haul Covid fatigue that continues to persist for months after. For many, it gets so extreme that it isn't a simple matter of feeling a little extra tired and out of breath any more. They are left in crippling and perpetual pain. Their personal and professional lives have become complicated due to their new co-morbidity. This is even before there is any conclusive exploration of how this new Covid caused co-morbidity is going to affect them in the long term. Now imagine all this not in a country like Britain but India. India is a young country. Its youth demographic is not only a source of pride for the nation but also an extremely vital asset to the nation and its growth. This is especially true at a time when most developed economies are seeing a massive demographic inversion where the number of non-working elderly outnumber the working youth. The sweep of long Covid through India's working population could leave a generation with co-morbidities that will impact their lives for a long time to come. Is India prepared for this next crisis? The Union Health Ministry did ask the Joint Monitoring Group to prepare guidelines on managing long-Covid complications. But till now this has not transformed into a formalised system of checkups and aftercare that is vitally important. Maybe that is understandable. The crisis in India is such that there are not enough hospital beds for active Covid patients so it is unreasonable to expect a ready-made set up to monitor and treat recovered patients for long term symptoms. But the long-Covid crisis will inevitably come whether we are prepared for it or not. There are still plenty of aspects to this situation that have not been discussed here. A prominent one worth mentioning is the likelihood that those who suffer from long-haul Covid will likely have to face increased premiums for their health insurance as long-Covid would likely be counted as a pre-existing condition.