Message from voters

The by-poll results across the country may not have any immediate decisive impact on the prospects of various parties but these certainly indicate the direction in which the political winds are blowing in different parts of the country. By-polls for 29 assembly seats and three Lok Sabha seats must offer some insights to political parties about the prevailing public sentiment. Of the three Lok Sabha seats — Mandi in Himachal Pradesh, Khandwa in Madhya Pradesh and Dadra and Nagar Haveli seat in Daman and Diu — the Bharatiya Janata Party could win only one, Khandwa. In a surprising outcome, Shiv Sena's candidate Kalaben Delkar managed to win Dadra and Nagar Haveli seat with an outstanding margin of around 50,000 votes. The sympathy factor appears to have played out there as Kalaben Delkar's husband, the stalwart leader Mohan Delkar, had died early this year. Shiv Sena — a party largely confined within Maharashtra — looks at the victory as a 'giant leap' towards Delhi. The Bharatiya Janata Party received yet another setback in West Bengal. The dominance of Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress has been further consolidated with the 4-0 clean sweep it made in the by-polls. The gulf in popularity of the two parties is starkly visible as the BJP was able to bag a mere 15 per cent of the votes while the TMC cornered a staggering 75 per cent. For the BJP, even more humiliating was the margin in all the four assembly constituencies — Dinhata, Santipur, Gosaba and Khardah. Notably, the BJP lost two of the seats — Dinhata and Santipur — which it had won in assembly polls in May. Apart from the popularity of Mamata Banerjee, several other factors might have resulted in this whitewash. Firstly, two winning BJP candidates of May assembly polls had refused to take the assembly membership as they were holding Lok Sabha seats. Politically, this might have given a very wrong message to the masses. This was also reflected in the outstanding margins with which TMC won in the four seats. While the minimum margin was around 60,000, the maximum was as stupendous as around 1,60,000. The other factor behind the BJP's whitewash could be the negative impact of the policies of the Central Government. Whatever be the reasons, the fact is crystal clear, West Bengal is a long game for BJP. The ruling party at the Centre could however find a respite in Assam where its alliance won all the five seats at stake. The decisive factor here was again none other than the cunning Himanta Biswa Sarma. The three seats that the BJP won were retained by the winning candidates of the assembly elections held earlier this year. The three candidates — Phani Talukdar, Rupjyoti Kurmi and Sushanta Borgohain — had resigned from their respective parties to join the BJP after the assembly results. So, more than the charm of the BJP, it was the influence of individual candidates, coupled with Sarma's political engineering, that led to the impressive outcome for the alliance. For the congress, the major gain came in Himachal Pradesh where it won all the four seats at stake — one Lok Sabha seat and three assembly seats. In the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, Pratibha Singh — wife of late ex-CM Virbhadra Singh — wrested the seat from the BJP. The seat was vacated after the demise of BJP MP Ram Swaroop Sharma. Among the three assembly seats, Fatehpur and Arki were retained by the Congress while the party dramatically wrested the third seat — Jubbal-Kotkhai — from the BJP. Jubbal-Kotkhai seat was vacated after the death of BJP MP Narinder Bragta. His son Chetan Bragta was seen as a major contender for the seat but, in a last-minute decision, the BJP decided to give the ticket to a female candidate Neelam Saraik who eventually faced a humiliating defeat with a mere five per cent votes, while Chetan Bragta put on an impressive show in an independent fight. The outcomes may be pricking for the ruling BJP in the state. The Congress party, however, appears to be ceding ground to the BJP in Madhya Pradesh which went for by-elections for one Lok Sabha seat and three legislative assembly seats. The BJP, apart from retaining the Khandwa Lok Sabha seat, also wrested Jobat and Prithvipur from Congress. At the same time, Congress took away the Raigaon seat from the BJP. Madhya Pradesh is one of the states where Congress has shown some competence over the past few years and the changing equations can mean a lot for both the parties, the Congress and the BJP. In Karnataka, both the parties equalled each other by winning one assembly seat each of the two seats at stake. While the BJP won the Singdi seat, the Congress registered victory in Hangal. The Congress outclassed BJP in Rajasthan by-elections. While it retained the Vallabhnagar seat, it also won the Dhariwad seat where the BJP couldn't even come runner up. The by-poll results in Bihar come as a respite to the JDU which came to power through an alliance with the BJP despite performing well below the mark in Bihar Assembly polls. JDU has been able to retain both Kusheshwar Asthan and Tarapur assembly seats. The results of the by-elections across 11 states in the country reflect a completely new reality that has emerged out of the turbulent times of the pandemic. Political parties need to read the message of the voters, delivered through their votes. There is a need for retrospection as major political battles lie ahead in the near future.