Looming contentions

Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be the trigger point for Finland and Sweden deciding to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the two neighbours of Russia had by and large a very balanced approach towards dealing with both the blocks of the Cold War simultaneously. Finland and Sweden drifted towards Europe in the aftermath of the Soviet collapse but the intention of joining NATO was never so clearly enunciated. It merits consideration as to what factors have led to both the countries coming out so clearly in open now? It may be highlighted that Russia used NATO expansion as a pretext to annex Crimea way back in 2014 and further to invade Ukraine this year. If both the Nordic countries perceive similar threats from reckless Russia, their apprehension appears to be completely justified. Nations must certainly look forward to preventing their citizens from the kind of destruction and bloodshed Ukraine is going through. Interestingly, Finland's formal announcement of its intention to join NATO and Sweden's expressed interest regarding the same has come after three months of Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this context, the move by Finland and Sweden appears to be a bit tactical as well. Ukraine went through bloodshed and destruction. That's true. But it also tested the capabilities of the superpower Russia. The invasion has not at all been an easy ride for Putin's army. Apart from strong military confrontation by a relatively weaker Ukraine, the war has also taken a significant toll on Moscow's finances — both in terms of military expenses and severe sanctions imposed by Western nations. Most importantly, the war has not ended yet, nor Russia's woes. Have the Nordic countries tried to strike the hammer at the right moment? It appears so. It will be important to see how Russia responds after the two countries join NATO. The Russian response and the counter-response by Finland and Sweden will determine the stability of Europe and the Baltic region. Call it a result of Russia's overarching territorial ambition or its sense of insecurity amid NATO expansion — the country's irrational actions have created a tense atmosphere in the region. Following Ukraine's invasion, if countries like Finland and Sweden amass troops on their borders, it should not come as a surprise. Afterall, signs are ominous, to a certain extent. Russian Defence Committee deputy chair, Aleksey Zhuravlyov has sent a veiled warning around Ballistic missile attack and threatened to cut off power supply from Rao Nordic on account of delayed payment by Finland. Earlier this year, Russia had also warned of nuclear deployment in the Baltic region in case Finland and Sweden join NATO. These developments remind of the Russian approach towards Ukraine before the war. The important question is whether Russia will be in position to wage other wars in its neighbourhood after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war? Rational strategy won't allow this but can Putin be assuredly expected to be rational? However, one thing is obvious. If Russia pushes for further confrontation in the region, it will do so with a much-diluted force and against more prepared adversaries. Finnish and Swedish inclusion in NATO should only be seen as an extended ramification of Russia's Ukraine invasion. Considering that Russia is also facing pressure domestically — apart from international pressure — it won't be wrong to say that Putin, through his irrational actions, is scripting his own endgame. Russian threats are less likely to deter the Nordic countries from joining NATO. Turkey's opposition to their inclusion in the group may present some roadblocks for the time being but those will be crossed over through negotiations. Turkey's reservations mainly stem from its bilateral conflicts with the two Nordic countries. Turkey has mainly expressed its reservation around the support rendered by the two countries to Kurdish groups that are banned in Turkey. There are a couple of other apprehensions as well — including Swedish sanctions on Turkey and denial of extradition request for Kurdish elements by Finland. Once these hurdles are crossed, the inclusion of Finland and Sweden in NATO will be a reality. Notably, NATO members other than Turkey have already come in support of the expansion. The major challenge for all the stakeholders will now be to behave responsibly to prevent the repetition of what is happening in Ukraine, and also to maintain the stability of Europe and the entire world. The first thing we need in the present times is sanity.