MillenniumPost
Editorial

In the deep end

In response to a second, greater wave of COVID-19 infections spreading across the nation, France has decided to opt for another nationwide lockdown. To varying degrees, other European nations have also opted for restrictions in the face of a second wave that has considerable potential to be much more severe than the first.

In a grim tone, French President Macron noted that "the virus is spreading across France at a speed that even the most pessimistic did not predict." He announced a nationwide lockdown that would be enforced atleast till the December 1 and then renewed if the daily case count goes down to a manageable level. For the most part, the restrictions of the first lockdown will return to France. All but essential goods and services stores will be closed. "Like last spring, you will be able to leave your home only for work, for a doctor's visit, to help a relative, do essential shopping or go out shortly for air," stated Macron. The difference this time is that there is a conscious effort to not stifle the economy and further pressure a stressed economic system. Factories and farms will remain open. Students up to high school level will also be attending physical classes. While work from home is being encouraged, an employer may seek exemptions for its employees on valid grounds. Even athletes are being allowed to continue training and competing. The French Government is clearly keen on avoiding the stress of the first lockdown which saw the French economy contract by a record 13.8 per cent in the second quarter even as it must heed the warnings given by its scientific advisors regarding the significant cost of not having a lockdown. Still, some economic damage will be unavoidable even if the Government steps up as it has promised.

Europe's second wave of infectious have caused much alarm. In the last week, more than two million cases have been reported worldwide. This is the fastest increase yet and 46 per cent of this increase originates from Europe. The data shows that alongside record increases in case counts in countries like Italy and Germany, there has also been a sharp rise in the deaths with a 35 per cent spike as compared to the week before.

Addressing this issue, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the EU Commission stated that Europe was being confronted with two enemies. First was the contagion itself but now there was also the added effect of Covid fatigue. Simply put, people are becoming tired of preventive measures. The recent wave of anti-lockdown protests in Germany, Italy, etc., offer proof of this. Even without visible agitation, this discontent can see the form of a simple relaxation of precaution at a personal level. In this, Europe is not alone.

The political response to the possibility of more lockdowns being required has been mixed. Italy has shown visible resistance to any idea of a nationwide lockdown. Boris Johnson, on the other hand, is being pressured from almost every side to announce a new wave of lockdowns but is yet to reach a decision. What is quite telling is that even Sweden, which went for the controversial method of seeking herd immunity with no lockdown and few restrictions, is now advising much greater caution for its citizens.

Some have analysed this new European crisis by comparing it to the Chinese example. China's stringent lockdown measures played their part but a much greater part was played by how China handled things once lockdowns were opened up. An effective tracking system helped China track the infection more effectively, allowing for focused testing and quarantine measures. The difference, as some commenters have pointed out, may lie in the fact that Asian governments have more experience in controlling epidemic breakouts in recent times. This perhaps has resulted in less complacency on an individual and government level when case counts went down after the first wave.

The prospects for the future look grim. With the arrival of flu and winter season, the risk of an unsustainable health burden has expanded many-fold in Europe. The most optimistic rollout of the vaccine is still somewhere around spring of next year. Europe must face this time of 'darkness' with little hope of reprieve. Laxness at this point can only escalate the scale of these grim predictions.

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