In for the long haul

Donald Trump's off-hand comment during the US Presidential Debates labelling India as 'filthy' and its air as polluted created quite a social media firestorm. While he had used this comment as a shield against his decision to pull out of the Paris Accord, his comment has nevertheless induced strong reactions on both sides of the spectrum. On the one hand, some see this as an undisguised and callous insult by a man who likes to portray himself as India's 'best friend'. On the other hand are those who see Trump's commentary as a wake-up call for India to wake up and smell the polluted and poisonous air.

With regards to the current situation in North India and particularly the National Capital Region, his marks are not inaccurate, even if they are motivated by a need to explain his own administration's policy shortfalls in regard to climate change and pollution. Indeed, after a sharp fall in pollution levels at the height of the lockdown, the air quality index for New Delhi and its surrounding cities reached an eight-month high this month.

Ahead of the upcoming winter festivities, Delhi and its surrounding areas are already shrouding over with haze. Stubble burning, vehicle pollution, construction, power plant emission, crackers, etc are the usual suspects and the so-called pollution season has only just begun. While the response to this yearly spike in pollution has historically been a mixture of apathy, disappointment and concern, this time the stakes are even higher. While there is little in the conclusive data, experts have agreed that pollution most likely contributes to the severity and occurrence of COVID-19 in affected individuals. This means that in countries like India where pollution is already one of the leading contributors to poor health outcomes, the combination of COVID-19 and the incoming pollution season is a double-whammy that can be scarcely afforded. While India is seeing a significant slump in its daily cases at the moment, the winter season brings severe apprehension as experts warn that another, perhaps worse wave of the pandemic may be upon us. Such apprehensions are not helped by various studies that present increasingly bleaker outlooks on what pollution has already taken from us and what it will take in the future. In the latest, a study published in the journal Cardiovascular Research analysed disease data from the US and China relating to air pollution, COVID-19 and SARS. This data was then combined with other sets of data such as satellite data on global exposure to particulate matter to arrive at a global average of 15 per cent of COVID-19 deaths being attributable to air pollution. World over, the figure has a reasonable variation with North America sitting at 17 per cent and East Asia at 27 per cent. These deaths, as per the study, were "potentially avoidable, excess mortality." The study concedes that without a fundamental shift in the way we power ourselves, there is little hope of any change with incremental gains. The pandemic may come to an end in due course of time but there is no vaccine against poor quality air and climate change after all.

Not enough? Another study in September by Harvard University claimed that an increase in only one microgram per cubic metre in PM 2.5 is associated with an eight per cent increase in the COVID-19 death rate. While these studies are not aimed at India, it is hard to not see India as a prime example in many such cases. Naturally, the concerned authorities have not sat back passively. While the pollution control response has met unfortunate roadblocks in Delhi now and in the past, the AAP Government has shown the determination to fight the long war against pollution starting with a variety of measures such as a ban on diesel generator sets. In regards to the problem of stubble burning, CM Kejriwal has met a group of scientists of the Indian Agriculture Research Institute for a live demonstration of a new technology that can decompose this stubble. There have even been talks of Delhi installing filtration towers as Beijing did in 2018. Even national leaders have gotten involved in this conversation. In a recent address, PM Modi stated that India will be the major driver of global energy demand, even as it holds down its carbon emissions. He committed to the creation of an energy sector that would be both industry-friendly and environmentally conscious. As of now, many leaders worldwide are increasingly committing to the same ideals, at least in principle. Major changes are not an overnight process. It is hard to calculate how much pollution has already cost humanity and how close we are to the tipping point of no return in terms of climate change but, as always, it is always better late than never.