Hoping for good rains

The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday predicted a normal monsoon for the country this year – 96% of the long-period average. A weakening El Niño and a stronger Indian Ocean Dipole have given forecasters hope for a favourable outcome this year. For the uninitiated, these weather phenomenon impact sea surface temperature and general weather patterns. Doubts, however, remain about the intensity of showers. The Met department predicted a 38% chance of near-normal rainfall and said there were signs that the rains will be well distributed this time around. A more detailed forecast of rainfall distribution in various regions will be available in early June when the IMD is armed with more data on the El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole. India saw drought years in 2014 and 2015. Despite the IMD's forecast of 'above normal' rains in 2016, India received 3% less than the average. Vast parts of states like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala are already reeling under severe drought due to deficient pre-monsoon rains. With the massive shortfall in irrigation facilities, good showers are necessary this year to trap enough soil moisture for a healthy kharif crop. What a good harvest season will do is help keep inflation down and rural consumption up. The monsoon season last year did little to recharge our water bodies adequately. Earlier this year, the government said that water levels in India's 91 major reservoirs were at 41% (less than half) of their storage capacity.

The Met department predicted a 38% chance of near-normal rainfall and said there were signs that the rains will be well distributed this time around. A more detailed forecast of rainfall distribution in various regions will be available in early June when the IMD is armed with more data on the El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole. India saw drought years in 2014 and 2015. Despite the IMD's forecast of 'above normal' rains in 2016, India received 3% less than the average. Vast parts of states like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala are already reeling under severe drought due to deficient pre-monsoon rains. With the massive shortfall in irrigation facilities, good showers are necessary this year to trap enough soil moisture for a healthy kharif crop. What a good harvest season will do is help keep inflation down and rural consumption up. The monsoon season last year did little to recharge our water bodies adequately. Earlier this year, the government said that water levels in India's 91 major reservoirs were at 41% (less than half) of their storage capacity.

With the massive shortfall in irrigation facilities, good showers are necessary this year to trap enough soil moisture for a healthy kharif crop. What a good harvest season will do is help keep inflation down and rural consumption up. The monsoon season last year did little to recharge our water bodies adequately. Earlier this year, the government said that water levels in India's 91 major reservoirs were at 41% (less than half) of their storage capacity.