Millennium Post

Timely benefits

With its prerequisites of size, location, demography, economic potential and political standing, strategic affairs analysts ponder whether India can become a "great power". The Narendra Modi government's ambition in that direction is evident in India's foreign policy initiatives in our near and extended neighbourhood, with major powers and in campaigns for the UN Security Council and Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) membership. Securing desired outcomes in multilateral forums and the warmth appeared in the recent Modi-Trump meet had turned the spotlight on the diplomatic tools India could use to obtain success. In 2008, India had addressed NSG members' non-proliferation concerns. Its application, therefore, should not have been controversial, since its record had not changed. What was different was the geopolitical landscape and the absence of a strong US push. The outcome of such international negotiations is really determined by geopolitical games, bilateral equations and domestic politics, more than the "merits" of a case. For every country – big or small - the strength of bilateral relationships underpins such negotiations.

Mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation enhances the stake of both countries in the relationship and also influences their attitude in multilateral forums on subjects of interest to each other. Awarding or withholding major contracts and facilitating or impeding investments are recognised negotiating tactics. Countries leverage strategic import decisions — civilian and defence — to extract benefits from the exporting country. India does not have the internal flexibility to use such tactics. Central audit and vigilance guidelines are invoked to block them. These guidelines are meant to check profligacy and venality of officialdom; not to obstruct strategies pursued in the national interest, provided they are coherently defined and implemented. In 2003, the Vajpayee government initiated an internal dialogue on evolving a methodology, conforming to international practices, for extracting strategic value from our major import orders. Predictably, bureaucratic headwinds grounded the initiative. India's Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) membership was vetoed by Italy in 2015. When this veto was lifted this year, some attributed it to a deal on the Italian marines awaiting trial in India for the killing of two fishermen off the Kerala coast in 2012. Even if true, the national interest justifies such deals. The truth that one must concede somewhere to get something elsewhere is as valid in international negotiations as in daily life.

Influence in multilateral forums is enhanced by bilateral and plurilateral alliances promoting shared strategic, security or economic interests. India's initiatives in East, Southeast and West Asia, and in Africa are relevant in this context. These elements feed into specific negotiations: strategic alliances, tactical alignments, bilateral trade-offs and pressure at sensitive points combine to achieve the objective. All these factors are relevant in our approach to China. Notwithstanding its inflexibility at Seoul, India's NSG membership is not its most important concern. This was demonstrated by China's strident response to the recent Permanent Court of Arbitration judgment on its actions in the South China Sea. China dismisses the court's authority, but is assiduously canvassing international support for its position. No country, however powerful, likes isolation in an international forum. China has a number of other interests which need international support.

Expanding the footprint of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, developing its ambitious One Belt One Road project and a range of trade and investment issues are just some of them. It would therefore weigh the political capital expended on continuing to block India's NSG membership in the broader context of its strategic objectives. India's options vis-à-vis China derive from these factors. Our interests intersect or run parallel with those of China in regions where we have strong connections — West Asia and Africa are obvious examples. Bluntly put, almost every Chinese interest is an opportunity for India — for cooperation or compromise. We expect Chinese pragmatism to weigh a 'give' in one area against a 'take' in another. India has to find the right trade-offs, ensuring that what we gain is commensurate with what we concede. This is the thrust of the debate on the rationale of India's NSG campaign. However, these stratagems for achieving external objectives are not original — they are simply Chanakya's approaches of Sama, Dana, Bheda, Danda (alliances, compensation, divide and rule, and armaments). However, they need an enabling domestic environment. We need effective nationwide public diplomacy to explain our foreign policy perspectives to government, legislative, corporate, media and civil society circles, so that major initiatives do not become hostage to party politics or narrow local interests. And, here is the point, where the political spirit of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems willing!

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