Approaching the exit

As we approach the end of the fourth phase of lockdown, all eyes are set on the Centre's decision over a possible fifth phase. The fourth phase norms were largely governed by states as the Centre drew the outline within which the former framed curbs as per specific infection rates. Traffic returned to roads, offices and organisations reopened albeit with partial strength and sale of non-essential items resumed. Activities or places that involve people in close quarters such as religious congregations, gyms, restaurants, shopping malls, cinemas, educational institutions, etc., remained barred. Railways, airways and buses were kickstarted as inter-state travel was given space to pick momentum after being shut for two months. Autos and cabs returned to bridge local transport requirements. The outlook of the fourth phase largely resembled slow strides to exit from an unprecedented lockdown. But in between our measures to gradually return to somewhat normalcy, the total caseload breached past 1.5 lakh. While the top five states continued to report a rise in daily cases, those with fewer cases displayed unusual spike accounting to the massive reverse migration of workers happening in the country. A new category of unassigned cases who have been on the move and who have not been owned up by any state also puts a count of more than 4000. This trend of rising cases is important for future considerations. It shows that as we progress in our calibrated exit strategy, cases will undoubtedly multiply and increase the pressure on our health infrastructure. It is therefore important to view the situation along with the recovery (~41 per cent) and fatality rate (~3 per cent) to get an updated picture of infection in the country. As deliberations are on to decide the contours of a fifth phase, the main question should be whether India is ready to exercise the post-covid normalcy that most developed nations have headed towards? It is clear that our economy has taken a heavy fall and remaining in the corona-induced abyss is not prudent. World Bank's forecasts that as many as 12 million people will be pushed to extreme poverty. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) had reported that as many as 122 million people had lost jobs due to nationwide lockdown, bringing India's employment rate down to 27 per cent in April. However, as lockdown eased, 20 million people were back in jobs in May, raising the employment rate to 29 per cent. This argument brings us to carefully evaluate further lockdown extensions and regulate restrictions in the face of the worst pandemic in contemporary times.

The initial lockdown has given us the gains it could — prepping up our healthcare infrastructure, spreading awareness about the virus, ramping up testing centres. The virus may have percolated into society but preventive measures have been adopted to restrict its spread at all levels from the government to community to the individual. At this juncture, we ought to now develop micro plans which would be accustomed to the post-lockdown phase defining a new normal. From schools, colleges to religious gatherings, from metros to local trains, from gyms to restaurants, from sports events to social gatherings, etc., everything would now require a new strategy tuned as per precautions mandatory in the covid age. The sooner India prepares for the novel reality that would be ushered post-lockdown, the better our chances of recovery. While science takes its course in developing a vaccine that will be our only shot to true normalcy, governments and societies ought to collaborate in adjusting to a world nobody expected at the beginning of this year. India should extensively collect covid-related data, collate it and take decisions based on it for the latter part of the summer. While prevention and mitigation measures will be central to the new roadmap, the challenge is to adapt to a post-lockdown world with glaring uncertainties!